Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Even when the ftse100 fell to 4800 about end of March Glaxo bottomed out at 1335.
It’s fallen a good 15 percent since the ftse was 5500.

Nothing wrong with the company of course - the scum that values it is to blame. Market makers work hand in glove with murky hedge funds and boiler room operators who are banned in their own countries.

The irony is there’re a lot of dodgy hedge funds domiciled in London because they can’t get regulated in the US. They practice shorting by stealth - so they go under the radar. They brought BT to their knees and it looks like the Glaxo is their new target. They’re wash trading and the exchange is so obtuse it can’t distinguish between volumes - if they buy one share 500 times its drives the price down - and that’s what they’re doing.

If the FCA won’t protect investors from these criminal operations who will?
All they ever do is roll the welcome mat out and invite them to trash our companies.

Toff

ADR up 2.05 percent today versus 1.2 percent rise from Glaxo. When an ADR outperforms the real company day after date you have to question the integrity of UK markets. There’s something seriously amiss for that to happen.

The whole system needs to be changed. The scum responsible for valuing ftse100 companies needs to be eradicated. I’m not quite sure of the dynamics behind it but it doesn’t function like a stock market from a developed nation should.

Bc2020

While I agree that Imperial is substantially undervalued there is no way it will rise to £25.

If you look at global tobacco stocks over 5/10 years you will see a definitive long term downtrend. And as usual UK tobacco stocks are trading on valuations well below their international peers.

There’re several reasons tobacco stocks will remain depressed - legislation - rising taxes - regulation - negative publicity - among others.

I can see future consolidation in a post-COVID future. Imperial would be the prime target for a takeover/merger. Philip Morris must have considered it. When companies are grossly undervalued they attract the attention of predators and Imperial certainly fits that criteria.

Baxter

“What’s your short term low? I could see £12.50 area“

For Imperial to fall that low the ftse100 would have to fall back to 6000 in my opinion, but I do see £13 as a support level. And the way market makers are hammering it down that level will be tested on Wednesday.

Bearing in mind that Imperial rose over very positive full year results it makes the precipitous plunge since it went ex dividend all the more galling. In truth uk market dynamics are broken - it’s incapable of valuing shares fairly because of colossal corruption and manipulation issues by parties intent on driving shareprices down. This permabear phenomenon doesn’t happen in other markets - they have laws in place to stop it. These dark forces that beat shareprices down are particularly virulent when stocks do ex dividend - I mean how on earth can a stock fall by £2 three days after paying a 48p dividend? You wouldn’t see that in a banana republic’s stock market.

And it’s likely to get worse once we’re fully out if the EU because the Tories will deregulate more - which will encourage ever more of the world’s murkiest hedge funds and boiler room operations to set up shop on our shores and rob shareholders blind.
The ftse100 is under control of criminals.

Steve

And while UK stocks are getting beaten down to pennies we have Bitcoin up over $1000 hitting a record high. An asset which is intrinsically worthless.

The Dax and the Dow are marginally below their record highs while the permabear 100 is about 20 percent below its all time high.

Massive drawback of living in post-Brexit- Britain.
We have some great companies but have an unregulated market that isn’t fit to value them.

There’s no reason for our biggest companies to stay in Britain. I’d love to see them relocate to regulated markets and deal Britain a mortal blow.
Any relocation would benefit shareholders immeasurably.

Toff

According to IG the shareprice dropped to 1461
That’s another 15p drop after the market closed.
That’s a £2 drop since shortly before ex dividend.
Are toxic dividends really worth it when you’re investing in an unregulated market full of banditry?

CSD

I should add that I’m a short term trader rather than a long term investor. I know there’re always exceptions but selling before dividends and buying after is generally better. The stamp duty is negligible when compared to the drop. Also my comment is specific to ftse100 shares which are particularly susceptible to market manipulation. Small caps aren’t put under the same downward pressure when going ex dividend.

Dividends are a mugs game when buying ftse100 companies- especially the big payouts. The real winners are the murky hedge funds who target ex-dividend shares with wash trades - brokerages do it as well - that excerpts downward pressure.

The losers are the shareholders- they get the booby prize , which is the dividend. Imperial looks cheap by any metric but many of the dividends have been deducted permanently from the shareprice- hence the falls from above £30. If you consider all the fundamentals - if the shareprice was £25 it wouldn’t looked overpriced. Wherever you get unfashionable stocks you get manipulation - punishing tobacco stocks is in vogue.

And then you’ve got the UK drawback factor. Although most ftse100 make most of their money outside the UK they trade at extremely low valuations due to being listed in the UK. Most ftse100 companies would rise 30-50 percent if they were to list in markets outside the uk.

BATS & Imperial have underperformed other multinational tobacco stocks by a hefty margin.
As have BP & Shell in the oil sector.
As have pharmaceuticals
As have most other sectors.

It’s a huge handicap being listed in the uk. I only hope many of Britain’s biggest companies will relist in the EU or US post Brexit. That would give shareholders a huge boost.

Toff

Chumba

"The day before ex dividend the shareprice invariably falls"

I assume you mean rises? “

No I mean Falls. Imperial fell on the day before ex-dividend - as did Glaxo - as do almost all UK shares. Check the historical prices out and see for yourself.

This is because market makers collude to drive the SP down on the day before. Reason - traders are less likely to sell when the SP falls especially the day before ex-dividend. And it doesn’t stop there - the MMs collude to set the price post dividend. My 1350 prediction is looking good - the SP has now gone ex-dividend for 3 days not 1. And I expect this trend to continue for at least another 3 days.

Rule 1) Always sell 3/4 days before ex-dividend
Rule 2) buying a few days after ex-dividend is the best time to buy - SP fall is usually 3/4 times dividend.
Rule 3) Never hold a UK share for the dividend- the bigger the dividend the more the MMs will shaft you.

Toff

In uk markets it’s always best to sell 2/3 days before ex-dividend date and buy back a few days after

I’ve been around market makers long enough to know how they work. They collude to fix shareprices in advance. The pattern is this..

The day before ex dividend the shareprice invariably falls - this is the MMs lining the stock up for a fall.
On the day of the dividend they mark it down way more than the dividend. But it’s not only for a day, it’s marked down for several days. You end up with 3/4 times the dividend off the shareprice.

If you ran a casino like that you’d be shut down. Only in the unregulated UK. Other markets don’t permit these practices.

Best time to sell is 3/4 days before the dividend- imperial rise to 1555 about 3 days before it went ex-dividend. Since then it has plunged by 168p.

Buying UK shares for their dividend is like getting in a boxing ring and taking 25 blows to the head just so you can hit them Once.

Glaxo also got hammered by the market makers. They fell from 1468 to 1368 after issuing a 19p dividend

The rule with UK shares is ALWAYS sell before ex dividend and buy back afterwards when they’ve been hammered into the ground. Until réfutions exists to curb the excesses of market makers this method will reduce your losses dramatically. After all would you prefer 48p dividend or a 168p discount on every share.

Toff

Sak

“AZN are not being transparent , and mistakes in the dosage means the meticulous rules were not followed”

AZN’s vaccine results are a shambles. On day one I posted that they were full of ambiguity, inaccuracies and obfuscation.

And they’ve been found out. There’s not a day pass when adverse news doesn’t appear to damn their failed vaccine.

AZN need to be careful here - they’re in denial. They’ve probably spent billions bringing this vaccine to market. But it pales in comparison to the other vaccines which beat them to it. For one thing the type of vaccine AZN manufactured was all wrong.

What do you do when you splurge billions on a drug that proves to be virtually useless?

Well you lie through your teeth - but AZN are treading on thin ice here. What they’re doing is unethical and illegal. they’re setting themselves up for lawsuits and multi billion-pound fines, not to mention irreparable damage to their brand and reputation.

Why not come clean and admit they’ve been barking up the wrong tree and the end result is an unmitigated dog that’s wasted billions. Thankfully there’re two REAL vaccines available now so the world doesn’t need to clutch at straws.

Maybe someone should tell AZN that!

Toff

Since the heady days of £30-£40 every penny of dividend Imperial have paid out in dividends has resulted in a permanent shareprice reduction.

If market makers are going to do this isn’t it about time Imperial reverted to share buybacks instead.
They could buy the company in a few years and take it private.

I warned that Imperial would fall to 1350p in the days following ex dividend on the GSK board a few days ago. It looks like it’ll get there at breakneck speed.

Why Imperial pays dividends I just don’t know. If the market makers are going to conspire to mark the SP down 150p for a 48p dividend- what good is that to shareholders.

Imperial would do better to pay zero and use the money for share buybacks. At least that way the MMs wouldn’t have a pretext to hammer the stock into the ground.

Pay down debt - share buybacks- anything except a dividend that costs 3/4p for every penny paid out.

Always sell a stock a few days before ex-dividend date and buy it back a few days after. Would you prefer 48p dividend or 150 discount on these shares.
This is the way UK markets work - yet another drawback to living here.

And if you think today is the end of the price plunge think again. The market makers have colluded to set this share up for a fall. It’ll have the ex-dividend factor priced in for days to come yet. 1350p is too optimistic.

Toff

Roperace

‘As for mistakes yes it was an error giving half a dose in the trial but some would argue this was serendipity.’

Surely when companies develop drugs there’s no uniform dosages. The amount is based on optimal efficacy. For example 30mg of Valium would be okay but 30mg of fentanyl would kill you. All drugs are different.

There were a lot of expectations for Astra’s vaccine and the final outcome disappointed- and since the results were released the market seems to agree.
70 p/e not overvalued?
Some would disagree

Toff

That Fool article is all wrong. They wrote another article of GSK in September 2020 when the shareprice was £15 - and the p/e was “12.4”

Fool really don’t know what they’re talking about and should be ignored. The current p/e of Glaxo is a mere 10.18. The p/e of AZN is about 70.

Glaxo has a lot of upside from the current price.

AZN rose a lot during its time as a Covid-19 vaccine forerunner, now the final product has bombed it looks set to plunge. It trades on a much higher valuation than Glaxo and I don’t see it’s worthy of the premium.

Their vaccine update was full of ambiguity and obfuscation. A vaccine with two large doses offered 62 percent protection. One small dose and one large dose offered 90 percent. What a crock of horse manure. That makes no sense whatsoever. A vaccine should be administered in a dose that realizes maximum efficacy. They’re making it up as they go along. And I’m not the only one. Their vaccine will never be approved in the USA.

“ U.S.-listed shares of AstraZeneca falls 2.1% to $54.15
* SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges says AZN's vaccine will never be licensed in U.S. as the design of the studies do not meet the FDA's norms for representation of minorities, severe cases, previously infected individuals and elderly
* Brokerage note follows AZN's interim trial data that showed its vaccine candidate was 90% effective in preventing
COVID-19 when administered as a half dose followed by a full dose at least a month later...
* The results showed the effectiveness of AZN vaccine depended on the dosing and fell to just 62% when given as two full doses rather than a half dose first
* Leerink says AZN tried to embellish their COVID-19 vaccine trial results by highlighting a reported 90% efficacy in a relatively small sub-set of subjects in the study
* The result puts into question the outlook for a rival vaccine candidate by Johnson & Johnson , which is based on a similar technology as AZN's”

The best time to buy any stock is post-dividend. In the days following ex-div date stocks invariably get beaten down. I haven’t checked the numbers but Glaxo must have fallen a good 76 pence since it went ex-dividend; four times more than the dividend payout. There’s usually no better time to but than a few days after ex-div; you won’t get the dividend but you’ll get 3-4 times more than the payout in shares.

There’re reasons for this - if a share is being targeted by shorting hedge funds (like Glaxo is) they pile in after ex-div date because they’re no longer responsible for the dividend payment. The ex-div date also puts downward pressure on the shareprice.

Watch out for Imperial Brands - it goes ex-dividend on Thursday (48p) the market is lining it up for a fall. I reckon it could be hammered down to 1350p. (Currently 1484)

Toff

Seaking

“Sad thing is the gov are loosening uk practices. “

The worst offenders are hedge funds. The city of London has huge amounts of loosely regulated hedge funds, who’ve set up shop because regulations in the UK are much more lax than either in the EU or the USA. The hedge fund practices of collusion and high frequency trading to target specific shares are unlawful in the US and EU - but not in the UK.

I fear it’s going to get worse post - Brexit. While reputable banks are leaving the city in droves, murky hedge funds are piling in. A post Brexit Britain could become a totally unregulated wild-west financial center. The government doesn’t care about shareholders getting fleeced by their malpractices. A lot of these vermin hedge funds are little better than boiler room operations.

Bt has been targeted by these funds for years and the shareprice drivendown enormously and kept there. Once wolves find a watering hole they don’t easily forget it. And it looks like the pack of hyenas have got their shorting teeth well into Glaxo.

Toff

These numbers alone speak volumes about manipulation in UK markets.

The ADR is 14.6 percent off its 12 month low
But in the UK, Glaxo is only 6.4 percent off its 12 month low.

A differential of 8.2 percent.
Same company - different valuations.
So what it amounts to is Glaxo valued at £5.65 billion more in the US than in the UK.

The FCA really need to tighten up on UK market practices.

Toff

Glaxo have fallen victim to a bear attack by high frequency traders. This happens when a pack of hedge funds collude and program their algotraders to execute hundreds of sell trades. Although most of those trades are only for 2 shares the number of sells drives the shareprice down.

Contrary to popular belief professional short traders don’t short heavily shorted shares they pick on healthy companies - as they’re doing with Glaxo.

It goes under the radar and because the positions are small there’s no mandate to declare a short position. I have nothing against shorting but this type ought to be outlawed as it determines the shareprice direction.

In my opinion it’s constitutes the abuse of algo-trading. And the collusion between hedge funds is in itself unlawful - it’s nothing less that price-fixing by a cartel. The FCA needs to root out and ban these bogus countless 2 share trades.

Toff

AZN vaccine is a huge disappointment. Only 62 percent protection after two doses. Why would anyone choose it over a vaccine with 90/95 percent. It would be reckless to administer a vaccine with such a low efficacy on a national scale; especially to those at high risk.

It would have been better received by the market had two much better vaccines hadn’t outperformed it by massive margins.

The forerunner fell at the last hurdle. Their vaccine is a flop. While I see Glaxo as undervalued, AZN, the UK’s most valuable company, is grossly overvalued. I can see it falling back to £65 now its vaccine has bombed. All it needs now is for other pharmaceutical companies to announce better vaccines.

Toff