Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Fleecy

“In your dreams, unless you're talking about places like Boulogne.”

You’ve got a track record for getting everything wrong. Not only with your investments but on every aspect of life. It’s very easy for you to form opinions while sitting in an armchair in some provincial backwater. Because you believe you’ve got nothing to lose by crashing out of the EU doesn’t mean it won’t destroy millions of lives. There’s something disturbingly sociopathic about your selfish views. We will all be losers if we crash out of the EU - including the billionaires who financed the catastrophe, because it won’t be safe for them to be in Britain.

“ With warnings that a no-deal outcome would be “existential” for the UK car industry, making it unprofitable overnight, Mike Hawes, head of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said: “The resulting tariffs would put our manufacturers at a disadvantage in export markets, raise prices for consumers and make the UK uncompetitive, both as a market and producer. We know the UK government understands this, and we hope it will do whatever it takes to secure a deal that safeguards the sector and hundreds of thousands of livelihoods that depend on its success.”

Aus

‘Toff - I love the way silly leave voters on here accuse you of having a negative attitude about Britain & its future’

They won’t know what’s happened until it hits them in the face. The warnings have been going on for years; most of which are now coming from Tory grandees. They’re absolutely right - the Tories have become a nationalist party - a pack of Nazis. What sort of psychopaths would unleash a cataclysmic no deal on its people? If it does happen, and it looks certain, the outpouring of anger will be beyond belief. Even the more intelligent leave voters are berating the psychopaths intent of taking us into the abyss.

Here are some stocks which will be least effected from the impending Brexit disaster.

All the miners
Oil majors
Glaxo
Tobacco Stocks
Vodafone
Diageo
Unilever
Ferguson
Johnson Mathey

These stocks will rise relative to the £’s decline which could be as much as 30 percent. All report in earnings in euros and dollars. Hopefully they’ll relist in the EU post crash out and deliver Little England another crushing blow

Toff

Nuri

“No way a pound and euro are of equal value. “

No - not in today’s economy but you’re overlooking the damage Brexit is going to do to to domestic businesses. Post -crash out massive unemployment will put intense pressure on banks - house prices are forecast to plunge by one third - factor hyperinflation into the equation too (a real drag on the £) the list of negatives are endless. When the damage is factored in you’re looking at €0.85 for £1 so whatever you do don’t change at parity. The £ will fall to parity with the dollar. There will be capital flight on a scale you’ve never seen as the world cashed out of Little England.

In the days before Brexit referendum there was €1.40 for £1 - In the days after 20 percent of the £ value was wiped off - and its even lower now. Back in those halcyon days there was record employment and Britain had the highest GDP in the world.

And then the Brexit Nazis took over...
A pack of decrepit old men who wanted to wind the clock back to the 1950s

Remember markets always overreact. - the world will be selling British assets like there’s no tomorrow when no deal is confirmed. The economic damage will be

Financial crisis + covid pandemic X10 = cataclysmic disaster

I see this has a once in a lifetime opportunity to short Britain and make a lot of money. I’d prefer not to see Britain go down the toilet of course, but if it does I’ll use my considerable trading skills to wax rich.

And I am rarely ever wrong.

Toff

As my German brothers say adversity should be seen as an opportunity. The likelihood of one of the greatest trading opportunities of a lifetime will happen if Britain crashes out with no deal.

The £ is the obvious target which I believe could fall to as low as $1
Other targets are banks, housebuilders and any business heavily exposed to the uk domestic market.

I’ve already hedged £-$ at $1.33 but I am lining up a massive shirt on the £ as soon as no deal is confirmed

Likewise for uk domestic stocks including BT.

The way I see it if Britain dies crash out the entire world will be shorting UK PLC The entire world will be selling every British asset for whatever they can get.

But I’ll keep long positions on multi nations that derive most of their income outside the uk. I expect these companies to soar on a decimated pound. 15-20 percent upside is my conservative estimate.

Opportunities like this don’t come along more than once in a lifetime. I may as well make a killing out of the misery. I just hope no deal isn’t announced on Sunday while the markets are closed.

Toff

Velo

“Shame on you Aus for knowingly enabling a poster with known mental health issues. He can't help his behaviour due to medical conditions - but you can.”
_______
The irony of your comment wasn’t lost on me. As with your technical analysis bunkum it’s wide of the mark.

You’re the one who idolizes and helped put a serial adulterer, and pathological liar in power. Someone with too many mental issues to mention and someone who is going to lead Britain into economic oblivion.

Fleecy

“On the contrary, Toff is obviously illiterate and thick. He's been posting on here for years and still doesn't know how to spell my username correctly”

You always talk about the long term and only a paper loss when you talk about your investments.
The only snag there is that when you’re in your mid-sixties you never know if they’ll be a tomorrow.

Unless you’re not planning on dying of course. Like everything else in life investments terminate when the heart stops beating. Your Lloyds and BT shares were recovering nicely - Brexit is going to put an end to that. It’s going to smash them right down to where they were when COVID struck - but this time it’s going to keep them there. There’re numerous media sources warning of the perils of no deal Brexit but as an enabler you’re quite happy to pretend there aren’t any in the belief you’re going to live forever. As regards doom and gloom - I can’t imagine a worse cart of circumstances than those the Brexit Nazis have brought on the people of this country.

When you’re knocking on you can’t view investments in the long term.

Aus

“To place a lunatic fringe in charge, compulsive liars and con men, more likely to negotiate a needless Cold War with our neighbours than a beneficial outcome.”

The next line those pathological liars are going to sell the country when they crash us out of the EU is the sovereignty card. They’re going to use third world political tricks to try to convince the nation that the EU wouldn’t allow us to keep our sovereignty. Lies like this will be met with a tidal wave of anger not only from the EU but from the newly elected pro-Irish US government.
Johnson is lining us up for international condemnation and disgrace. And you can bet half the UK electorate are going to want the governments heads on a plate. Last time a European country had a pack of criminals like this in charge their country got reduced to rubble in 1945.

This period of our history will be looked back on with shame like no other. Most of the early warnings came from moderate Tories who were vilified. The country is a tinderbox - crashing out of the EU will light the fuse.

Aus

“but when you block a leading exponent”

That should have been proponent.

It’s been a king day...

Aus

Fleecy and Velo and others have all filtered me at some time or other, but when you block a leading exponent on a chat board it’s impossible to keep track of posts. That’s why they’ve had to unfilter me again.

Today for example; not that I post often; but my EU post this morning has been the driver for the entire day’s discussion. Although I don’t agree with Fleecy and Velo their posts are worth reading (even if only for a laugh)

However someone as nondescript and mundane as Alias - Smith is always going to be on the periphery of any debate and I’d imagine most if his posts go unread. So it’s of no consequence if someone in that bracket filters me:)

Analysts warned that ending the talks on Sunday without a deal would trigger a fresh sell-off, which could sink the currency close to parity with the dollar, and a rout in UK company share prices when the London stock market reopens on Monday morning.

“If we get a hard Brexit on Sunday evening the market will be shocked,” said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Shares in UK company shares could fall by as much as 7%, he said, led by bank stocks. “Market participants are used to politicians reaching a deal in the last minute, but the UK and EU are far from each other in terms of reaching a trade agreement.”

Faced with the prospect of a no-deal departure crystallising on Sunday evening, the US investment bank Morgan Stanley warned the UK-focused FTSE 250, which tracks the value of the UK’s largest 250 companies outside of the FTSE 100, could fall by as much as 10%.

Share prices in big UK banks would plunge by up to 20%, it said, because the Bank of England might respond to a no-deal departure with negative interest rates to cushion the economic fallout from disruption at UK ports from 31 December.

Aus

“If you look at the people and personalities behind brexit, any right mind would have rejected what they were selling“

They’re not in their right minds, they’re a mix of elderly and infirm, right wing extremists/racists/nationalists and those from the lower demographics. Every political movement needs enablers and the uneducated classes are always febrile recruiting grounds because they’re so easy to convince (as exemplified by Brexit)

The fact that the Brexit leaders are a pack of pathological liars is seen as a virtue by their supporters.

Those who talk about the millennium bug and Brexit in the same breath are showcasing ignorance on a mind blowing scale. Everyone, except for perhaps a few intellectually disadvantaged people knew that was a hoax perpetrated by scat tabloids to sell papers.
Most tellingly, the Brexit Nazis used it as a centerpiece in their leave campaign; as a smokescreen to their sinister agenda.

The consequences of Brexit will pervade every aspect of life. It will be far worse than covid and will last far longer. When companies like Nissan and Airbus and countless others relocate to the EU, and the heart is ripped out of the economy.; that’s when the tears will fall.

The Brexit Nazis championed entrepreneurs like Tim Martin (Wetherspoons) and Dyson (relocated his business to Singapore) while ignoring the pleas of manufacturing giants to remain in the single market.
In many respects Brexit was a provincial movement - supported by people who lived in cosy backwaters away from the real world. By the elderly who thought they had nothing to lose because their working days were over and their triple lock pensions guaranteed.
If Britain does crash out of the EU without a deal the riots won’t occur in the hinterlands of Fleecy’s provincial England, they will happen in big cities.
This is easily the biggest crisis facing Britain since WW2 broke out. There’re a good 50 percent of the population who will explode with rage if Britain goes into meltdown post EU - and most are young unlike Brexit voters. That is the perfect formula for insurrection and worse.
The Tories have already mobilized the armed forces in the expectation of civil disorder. When troops start patrolling the streets and Brexit Nazis start imposing curfews and martial law is when the good people of this country will go to war.

EMM

“The really big move will be if an agreement is made and we will see by rally 20 percent in a week minimum“

I agree with that part of your post. Bt will rise to 150 or higher on a EU deal. It has more to lose than most ftse100 companies because of its domestic exposure. But it’s highly unlikely to happen and any market turbulence a no deal would bring would be savage. Worse than the COVID-19 impact and longer lasting.

Bt will fall back to 100p. Banks. insurance, supermarkets and house builders will get hammered into the ground. The UK housing market is seen as bulletproof- but not even that will withstand a no- deal fallout. House prices are widely forecasted to fall by one third.

The perpetrators of Brexit can afford it, but what’s good for billionaires is rarely good for proles. The proles will be the ones who pay a terrible price for a extremely sinister right wing political movement that belongs in a bygone age.

Nuri

“Who cares what happens in the next weeks.”

I’d imagine the entire nation will be effected in a very negative way when Britain crashes out out the EU.

It’ll be most interesting to see if Nissan pull out of the UK because of a whole host of new trade taxes. They’ve threatened to move production to the EU if no deal happens - and that’s looking like a certainty now.
I know the phrase turkeys voting for Christmas is an overused one but it certainly applies to the people of Sunderland who voted in favor of Brexit despite knowing the sword of Damocles hung over Nissan.
And worse - the new trade taxes will not only mean international investors relocating to the EU, it will mean them never setting up a manufacturing base in the UK again.
I say UK but I don’t expect UK to be in existence for much longer - as sure as the sun sets in the west the Scots won’t tolerate having their economy annihilated by a decadent English political ideology. What is about to happen is the most shameful chapter in British history overseen by a pack of right-wing extremists who have no regard for the people they serve. Now Trump has fallen they represent the last bastion of Trumpism. The Democrats are still seething because of Brexit Tories interference in American politics when they came out for their blood brother (Trump) The free world is lining up to teach Britain a lesson and Biden is right at the front of the queue.

If you don’t care what happens now you soon will.

Crashing out of the EU with no trade deal was always the hard-right’s objective. When confirmation of that comes next week they will have got the Brexit of their dreams. Then the lie factory will go into overdrive in a bid to blame the EU. Just as the Brexit bus falsely claimed £350 million a week was being paid to the EU and Turkey were going to join, lies about the EU refusing to allow British sovereignty as a pretext to justify the catastrophic no deal outcome. (Remember the Brexit windfall these pathological liars promised)

When the devastating economic consequences are known there will be an outpouring of rage not seen in Britain since the English civil war. The Tories vilification of the EU is deeply offensive to every European. To falsely accuse other nations in order to mislead one’s own people is an act of war. The Tories are engaging in nazi politics when they preach hatred against other nations as a means of implementing a twisted political agenda. You can only do that for so long before there’s a seismic reaction.

And that includes BT

“Morgan Stanley said on Friday that it expects the FTSE 250 index to drop 6% to 10% if Britain fails to agree a trade deal with the European Union before the end of a transition period.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday that there was "a strong possibility" Britain and the EU would fail to secure an agreement. ...
Morgan Stanley sees shares of UK banks falling 10% to 20% in a "no deal" scenario, given there is a higher chance the Bank of
England would cut interest rates into negative territory.
The U.S. investment bank said insurance, real estate and housebuilding stocks were also at risk.“

Fleecy

“Hahaha, you need to up your meds. Obviously your delusions are bleeding into your perception of reality.”

Many would argue that it’s your perception of reality that’s erroneous. The paradox of buying into BT and voting to leave the EU is all too obvious for those of us with reasoning skills. The markets agree with me - Lloyds and other domestic companies are plunging. The real damage won’t happen until no deal is confirmed.
And if that happens there will be an outpouring of anger not seen since the English civil war. Civil unrest will begin in Scotland and rapidly spread to London and other cities. The breakup of the union will herald the final funeral pyre of the British empire. And I for one am very much looking forward to the consequences. The Tories played Russian roulette with the country’s economy and lost, but the gun was pointed at the electorate. Crashing out won’t bring closure it’ll bring the next terrible chapter of Brexit misery.

Twongo

Your post mirrors the sentiments of the intelligent half of the population; the ones who voted to remain.

The other half is heavily weighted with old drudges who left school at 14, have little if any formal education, are economically inactive because their working days are over and sit on armchairs all day worrying about the dustbin getting emptied and other such trivialities. Plus they’ve grown fat on the prosperity the EU has brought since 1975, but are inherently racist. All their political views are sourced from scat tabloids - owned by billionaires - but what’s good for a billionaire isn’t necessarily good for a prole. When this generation dies out I’m sure we’ll rejoin the EU. Until then England is going to get economically decimated. I see Brexit as the final funeral pyre of the British empire. In the wake of crashing out with no trade deal there will be civil unrest - Scotland will go independent even if it means using armed force to do it. Industry will collapse - wages and working standards will plummet - the pound will crash - prices will soar - millions of jobs will go. The Brexit Nazis have succeeded in doing what the German Nazis never did. It’s just a shame that the decent people of this nation have been dragged into the sewer by the others. The punishment will be collective -although thoroughly deserved for the ones who believed the scat tabloids and slimy Brexiteer politicians.

Toff

There’s no equilibrium in ftse100 shares. After spectacular gains the miners fell back at opening time and beaten down stocks rose. As the day went on the index rose and miners started to rise yet again. And beaten down stocks are losing their small gains. Glaxo could discover a cure and cancer and the miners would soar on the news and Glaxo would plunge.

The MMs use the miners to control the index. If there’s a lot of buying they mark the miners up and keep most of the companies down. This is a pattern that’s being going on for years. Miners are by far the biggest sector in the ftse. Bear in mind there’re a lot of bets (long and short) on the ftse100 and the MMs can’t let people win. Anyone trading the ftse100 would have done far better to trade miners only because they’re the ones the MMs constantly mark up at the expense of all the others. If the ftse100 rises to 7000 - 90 percent of the gains would be allocated to miners.

Toff