Member Info for ToffAppleton1

A United Ireland
And independent Scotland
The death knell for the Tories
The final funeral pyre of the British empire

So it’s not all bad
Lots of positives there.

Markets have got the Brexit jitters. Domestic companies are falling back on the fear of no deal. There’s a very good possibility Britain will crash out of the EU over the weekend and if that happens Monday will be a bloodbath - a day to remember.
Bt will fall to £1 and there will be carnage on a monumental scale.
Not that it’ll bother the nationalists on this board - they’ll console themselves by convincing themselves it’ll all come good in the long term and that they’ll live forever - even though they’re approaching the finishing line.

“Looks like there was a tree shaking exercise so that a position is built on the cheap, today.”

Yeah the MMs have been shaking the tree since Centrica was £2

But they still haven’t found any buyers to buy it on the ”cheap”

Keep shaking...

Rogue

You’re right about diversification.
But there’s nothing wrong with being overweight in a low risk stock. I don’t consider 20 percent excessive.
And they don’t come lower risk than Glaxo.

I’m overweight in Glaxo, but it’s essential to draw a limit to size position. As we’ve seen on these boards countless times, novice traders constantly average down on a stock until they reach point of being all in. And that is a recipe for financial disaster.

Weighting should be correlated with risk factor.
Another huge drawback to going all in is that it ties all your money up, so when you do see opportunities you’re powerless to do anything about them.

The psychology that draws novices all in to a single share is that they see the shareprice fall and they want to repeat their trade again and again to remedy for the previous ones. And if you’re in the wrong share that can be the difference between losing all your money or just some of it.

You need to takes risks for reward, but excessive risk can wipe you out.

“looks like we are going to 13 66“

1340 - about what it was when the ftse100 fell to 4850 in April

I’ll be buying more at that point. Event bent Uk market makers can’t keep the shareprice at an historic low for too long.

And relist on a European index. What’s the point of remaining in Little England when they make 95 percent of their earnings in other countries.

Drawbacks of belonging to the ftse100 are...

Exposure to unregulated hedge funds that wash trade, manipulate and trash Glaxo shares.

Market makers who are incapable of valuing shareprices fairly who collude to fix prices and trash Glaxo shares

The Brexit factor - Little England is now a nationalist state governed by a nationalist party. Do multinationals really want to be associated with that image.

Glaxo owe it to their shareholders to list somewhere where the company will be valued for what it’s worth.

I’ve emailed Glaxo investor services laying out the manifold benefits of leaving the UK.

Waiting for the reply...

Jed

One only has to look at the balance-sheet to see Centrica’s total debt is £5,260 billion.

And the last results below sees falling revenue. I’m not saying they can’t recover but it’s by no means a sure bet and its best days are behind.

“BRIEF: For the six months ended 30 June 2020, Centrica PLCrevenues decreased 9% to £12.52B. Net loss decreased 65% to£193M. Revenues reflect Oil Equivalent Production(Units/day), T decrease of 14% to 139K barrels per day.Lower net loss reflects Others segment loss decrease of 43%to £478M, Energy Marketing & Trading segment income increased from £32M to £115M.”

CDS

“Not to mention RBS with ABN years ago and LLOY with HBOS.“

They are worst case examples. I think you’ll find many of the most successful companies were built from numerous acquisitions on their journey to greatness. pharmaceuticals, by nature is an acquisition hungry sector. I’m sure they’ve done due diligence and are not overpaying.

GSK is trading at a decade low on valuation metrics so I’d imagine downside is limited from here.

Toff

Emm

No it’s you who’s talking trash.

It’s in my posting history - yesterday at 17.22
There for everyone to see!

“My prediction for tomorrow is slightly down because of the ongoing uncertainty”

Emm

My post from yesterday evening.

“My prediction for tomorrow is slightly down because of the ongoing uncertainty”

Ftse did finish slightly down (0.23percent)

The legend of ToffAppleton grows...

Gert

“Toff it’s time to pack it in.
Centrica @20p”

That’s right. I predicted Centrica to fall to 20p
When it was in the high 50s
It fell to 29

Does that make it a mistake?
Does that mean Centrica is now a great investment because it fell from over £2 to 42p?

Centrica is a dog of a company.
A broken business model
A business whose survival is in peril.
A business that will get annihilated by no deal Brexit.

My overall opinion on it hasn’t changed
Not even ToffAppleton can predict shareprices to the penny.

But I can tell you whether they’re going down and up.

And Centrica is going down
@20p

Prediction by

Toff

Emm

“Toff didn’t you predict before gbpusd opened tonight the gbp mkt and uk domestic companies will be down Monday mng ? “

You’re confusing me. If you can post a cut and paste of what I’m supposed to have posted I’ll address it.
If it’s not a figment if your imagination you’ll find it in my posting history.

Toff

Velo

“I personally think you've barely got 2 pennies to rub together. You seem to forget we are not all new posters on this forum and several of us over the years have seen your multiple FAILED entries into BT - several times!”

Anyone only has to refer to my posting history to see I call it right all the time. not only on BT but all stocks.

Did anyone on here buy into William Hill when I recommended it @65p a few months ago

It’s all there in my posting history.

I can predict in a short sentence what you can’t predict in an encyclopedia of technical analysis babble. You were pontificating about Elliot Waves a few months back, like you’d discovered the holy grail. EW have been around for decades and they’ve got no credence whatsoever.

I’ve guessed the weight of the cake as far as you’re concerned. You may impress the uniformed but you don’t fool me. .

You ain’t no trader!
You’re someone who does it for a hobby and fantasizes about doing it for a living.
But you ain’t got what it takes.
And you never will.

Traveling vacuum salesman isn’t it?
Door to door.

As someone who’s worked as a professional in a ‘real’ trading environment I’ve seen countless wannabe Gordon Gekkos comes along expecting to knock the world on its ass.

But it rarely works out that way.

That’s human nature - even the vastly inferior believe they’re the fastest gun in the west...

Until they get gunned down by

ToffAppleton:)

NDN

“If you are the pro you claim to be. Why do you keep getting things like BTs pension deficit wrong,”

The figures are changing all the time - dies anyone know what the true figures are?
It was widely posted on here that the PD had dropped to £1 billion a while back - but I believe it’s considerably higher than that.

Anyway it’s of no relevance to me.

Do you really believe short term traders like myself study business models in depth when only current sentiment matters? I’m usually in and out if a share in hours or days - detail doesn’t matter to me.

You need to require your mindset and distinguish between investors/traders.

Warren Buffett is an investor
Jess Livermore was a trader.

I’m in the Jesse Livermore camp.

Emm

“If toff is regularly trading on ig mkts at weekends, I can give you a clue he will be losing a lot of cash as spreads would be much wider and there isn’t much need to trade regularly weekends either. “

I hardly trade out of hours - but what you do get is access to up to the minute market rates - not the historical ones you published in your earlier post.

Secondly I have a professional trading account with IG - so I get preferential rates.

Normal rules don’t apply to me.

But unlike Velo and just about everyone one else on here I’m a professional trader

I lay my cards on the table in advance - Vélo and his mates can’t predict the past so what hope have they of predicting the future?

I’ve got a proven track record - people might not like what I’ve got to say but they certainly sit up and take notice.

Because I am rarely wrong.

Toff

Emm

‘Most cable (gbp/usd) fx platforms and Sunday night traders will be open in next hour. Not sat or Sunday mng.’

No you’ve got it all wrong. The world has changed -were living in the digital not the analog age. You need go no further than IG for live streaming data. I trade over the weekend on their ‘weekend platforms’

I love the way people vote posts up even though they’re misleading and erroneous. That’s a sure sign of prejudice and losers reinforcing losing opinions.

Velo

“All prices are 100% devoid of Brexit influence.”

That is the only factor driving UK markets right now so your TA is totally irrelevant.

I can understand why you never gave up your day job. Travelling vacuum salesman isn’t it?

Toff

Emm

Don’t you have access to streaming market data?

Even though markets are closed they fluctuate constantly.

£ currently 1.33416-1.33616

Ftse100- 6554.2-6566.2

But that can change in a heartbeat

Nige

“what do you make Boris's claim that the EU offered us the same deal as Canada,”

I don’t believe a word the moron says. Did you read the Daily Mail’s repugnant headline that Johnson fed them? That constitutes a hate crime; how can someone leading a supposedly civilized nation get away with that sort of rhetoric?

Johnson is regarded as an unbalanced knockabout by the grandees of the Tory party. They know better than anyone that Britain is in the hands of a deeply unbalanced populist. He’s unkempt, has rotting yellow teeth and is a general all round tatterdemalion. In personality he bears a striking resemblance to a provincial German corporal who led Germany to ruin - except Johnson is intellectually inferior and not as single minded.

I predict domestic stocks to drop a little tomorrow. The only way stocks are going to rally is on a trade deal. The stocks to buy are the multinational ones, least exposed to the UK , which make most of their money outside the UK. Unfortunately BT will feel the full brunt of a no deal outcome. It’ll fall back to £1 very quickly, which is a shame because it was recovering nicely...

Until the Brexit Nazis decided to drive the Brexit bus over the precipice into the ravines in a region of the world known as the abyss.

Nige

“with the Brexit trade deal deadline being put back,”

My prediction for tomorrow is slightly down because of the ongoing uncertainty. The odds of a deal now have been slashed by bookmakers to less than 40 percent. Don’t forget we’re dealing with a former lunatic fringe of the Tory party who are now in total control. As with all fanatical ideology they will play for all or nothing.

I think we all know the unthinkable is the likeliest outcome.

The Ultra Brexit Tories are negotiating in bad faith. All they’re doing is running the clock down because they know if they walk away they won’t be able to blame failure on the EU. And when the clock does run down they will use their scat tabloids to vilify Germany just as they did with their mendacious leave campaign. The fall out will be devastating. Even many who voted to leave the EU will feel betrayed. And when the consequences feed through there will be changes in Britain like you’d never believe. Nothing happens for decades then decades happen in weeks.

Even most Brexiteers never bargained for this degree of economic genocide.

“Business groups in regions that voted in favour of Brexit warned that their reliance on EU trade meant they wanted the prime minister to compromise. Jonathan Walker, director of policy at the North East England Chamber of Commerce said the body had been making the case for a trade deal for four years because of the area’s economic reliance on Europe. “The EU is the north-east’s largest marketplace and the government’s own analysis has clearly set out how exposed we would be to the consequences of a no-deal Brexit,” he said. “It is ridiculous our businesses now only have a matter of days to prepare fully for the biggest change to trading conditions for generations with no clarity on how they will have to operate.”