Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Fleecy

“then the person who decides to go forward and have the operation will die in 99 out of 100 realities.”

That’s a good analogy. But in a universe that’s infinite (the borders are merely horizons) there’re also an infinite number of earths with an infinite number of ourselves so if 99 out of 100 die on the operation table does it really matter. I’m of the opinion that only artificial intelligence could have made the universe and although we think we’re acting on our own free will we are being deceived. Haven’t you ever had the feeling something is going to happen no matter what?

Fleecy

“The current scientific consensus is that faster-than-light communication is not possible”

The speed of light is Einstein’s universal speed limit. But he was a classical physicist not a a quantum one. (Theory of relativity is classical physics)
Having said that expansionism is faster than the speed of light. The Big Bang - supernova explosions - are said to be faster the the speed of light - but they are singularities.

Quantum physics, pertaining to the subatomic world, is completely different from the physical world in every aspect. For one - there is no history in the subatomic world. If you know about the double-slit experiment you’ll also know the subatomic world is the sum-of-all-histories. It is in this world known known and unknown unknown mysteries lie; such as dark matter and dark energy. I believe there’s a way for matter to negate space-time but it has yet to be discovered.

My definition of Pre-determinism is the theory that everything is determined beforehand. Subatomic particles are engineered in such a way that they predicate destiny. And that could only be done by artificial intelligence. I know Bell’s experiment confirmed entanglement but I can’t see how it could have disproven pre-determinism.

There are more things in heaven and earth Horacio than are dreamt of in our philosophy.

Toff (quoting Hamlet)

Poker

“if TERP and SP ended as 50p for example you could sell your 32p shares for 50p“

Or it could go the other way. With all the headwinds over the next 12 -18 months investors have to ask themselves if they want to live with that level of stress.

RBS have never recovered and they crashed about 12 years ago. Like RBS I fully expect Rolls to have a 10/1 share consolidation when the ship steadies.
RBS’s shareprice would be about 10p now if it weren’t for their that.

Before The SP can recover Rolls need to pay down debt and start making money again. It’s going to be a rough road back. I do think their long-term outlook is better but it’s what happens in-between, having to live through the day-to-day drama of volatility, that’s what freaks people. Although some do sell at a hefty loss they also feel an overwhelming sense of relief afterwards. I can understand that sentiment.

Sum

“but what about the possibility of additional dimensions where what we think of as distance does not exist as a concept.”

I thought about that too, and extra dimensions could possibly fit the bill. There has to be some way for subatomic particles to bypass space-time and arrive anywhere in the universe instantly. .
My preferred explanation for quantum entanglement is still predeterminism though; meaning it was engineered that way from the beginning.

By artificial intelligence - commonly mistaken for god...

Toff .

Roydon

I reckon it will !

Or more truthfully you hope it will. There’re so many factors in play right now it’s difficult to foresee what’ll happen. But sentiment is key and if that can swing in Rolls’ favor the herd will move in and start buying in droves.

I admire your spirit. You’re always upbeat.

Toff

Fleecy

“entangled particles losing entanglement once a particle is observed”

Actually that’s not quite right. The particle can never be measured accurately (position & momentum) because the very act of measuring it distorts the readings - hence the uncertainty principle.

Fleecy

“I'm not a physicist, but I've read up on things like the delayed quantum eraser experiments and entangled particles losing entanglement once a particle is observed”

That’s what’s know as the “uncertainty principle”

But what’s far more interesting is the idea of quantum entanglement being used for instant communication. It wouldn’t really make that much difference on the earth because communication delays are negligible. But you only have to go as far as Mars - and you’ll find a 15 minute delay (it’s what’s known as the extended present) and if man ever succeeded in interstellar travel and colonized other planets BT would be the richest company in the galaxy.

Communication between quantum entangled particles is simultaneous. No one knows why but it is - it doesn’t matter if it’s 40 miles away or 40 light years. The only explanation I can think of is predeterminism.

Fascinating

Toff

Trading Places.

I remember warning you about the perils of Rolls on the BT board a while back. If you don’t mind me saying so your mistake wasn’t buying into Rolls it was averaging down - 2-3 times?

There’re disciplines traders must adhere to to protect themselves and averaging down into a losing trade is the biggest mistake you can make. It compounds losses - before you know it you’re overweight - then you’re all in on one share. That’s when investing becomes gambling. Diversification is essential - not only in shares but in sectors. And if you are averaging down the chances are is that the share is in a sharp downtrend.

I know you made money from your BT trades. And you were right to sell them. I sold mine too but I only broke even. I’m sure you’ll make your Rolls losses back in the future.

All the best

Toff

Gary

“Toff what a load of rubbish. Short covering my ass. The whole market moved positively in the last period of trading.”

Really?

But the ftse didn’t finish up 13 percent off its day low
And no other share in the index came close.

Did it?

Toff

The big question next week is if Rolls can sustain a positive shareprice.

It rose today on short covering before the weekend as they don’t like holding positions then.

But Rolls is getting support from another source. The banks who have underwritten the RI are supporting it through their brokerages. Set the algos to buy and watch it rise, even if the buys are only for handfuls of shares, they’re copious. And that’s good news for shareholders.

UBS heaped downward pressure today by trimming PT to 149 pence from 265 pence, as the brokerage updated its forecasts for factors including RR's share issue announcement on Thursday stating that "If RR fails to sell assets over the next 18 months and the traffic recovery drags on, there could be a further risk of need for liquidity"

It’s going to be a long hard road to recovery. The buying support from the banks should ensure the RI goes ahead - but you have to ask what will happen to the SP in the aftermath.

That remains to be seen.

Market commentary by

Toff

I sympathize with those who have lost money- especially the ones who were in before COVID came along. That is just sheer bad luck - and luck plays a big part in trading.

But these boards are all structured the same - the overwhelming majority are holders of any given share - and therein lies the herd.

Opposing opinions are trashed opposing posters are vilified. So you end up with a biased and unbalanced opinion, which draws more people in.

Which is okay most of the time
Except when it isn’t
Like now.

I don’t expect anyone to listen to me
But people will listen to their losses.
Losing is hard

Toff

Poker

“You do not know what the share price will be over the next 2-3 weeks....”

I’ve got a good idea
It’ll be a lot lower.

But you shouldn’t worry.
You sold your shares on Wednesday 30 September at 4.25pm

Five minutes before the RI came into being.

Toff

Is an event that happens when there’re no buyers left and the SP plunges 20 percent++ in a single day.
Today could be the day. And the more it plunges the more panic selling we shall see, by those desperate to salvage anything from the wreckage. Once it’s nationalized the shares will be worthless.

The news that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley , two of the top banks advising Rolls-Royce board on the 5 billion pounds ($6.44 billion) debt and equity fundraising unveiled on Thursday, cut their exposure by up to half late last week has damaged sentiment towards the RI. To the market that indicates that they have doubts the RI will succeed.

Once total capitulation occurs the RI will be cancelled and it’ll be all over the news channels that Rolls are being nationalized. Headlines. This is a corporate disaster in the making.

Toff

Roydon

“Toff
Vol Sold 4,614,650
Vol Bought 6,837,240

Don't worry, there are more buyers than sellers !“

You got those figures off this board - and they are wrong. Poker will tell you that too.

When investors want to sell they place a sell order
MMs receive the order and have to find a buyer.

When a share is in demand - it inflates the price
When it is being dumped - the price goes down.

As of now when people are desperately offloading Rolls shares the MMs have to constantly mark the SP down to draw-in buyers.

Worryingly, Rolls is now nearing the point of total capitulation. And I don’t mean a 10 percent drop.

I’ve already flagged that the RI could fail this morning. And that becomes more and more likely with each penny Rolls bleeds.

Toff

Another day - another 10 percent plunge

Observing the shareprice action it looks as though shorters are the only buyers.

The pattern is a familiar one...
It touches a new low
Shorters close their positions (buy)
SP spikes on short covering
Shorters reopen positions
Downward spiral continues.

Warning - Rolls is reaching the point of ‘total capitulation’ when there will be no buyers.

What happens then?
Well that’s another post.

Toff

Johnny

“My current strategy is to look for bargain basement shares suffering due to the pandemic hoax, and get me some bargains! RR is on my list”

That’s everyone’s strategy. That’s why so many people bought into Rolls when it plunged from £8

And got slaughtered on the way down.

Toff

NotOut

“RR is far too important to fail.”

I agree with you there. It’s so important that if the rights issue didn’t succeed the government would nationalize it. Because they wouldn’t have any other choice.

The company doesn’t have to fail for shareholders to be wiped out.

Toff

Here’s hoping

“Toff is incorrect, clueless, and misleading people.”

No you’re the one who’s clueless not me. While you were filling your boots with Rolls shares and advising people to buy in I was warning of the cataclysmic dangers of doing so.

Now you’re in denial and pretending you’re getting discounted shares, even after the SP has taken a howling 30 percent dive since the RI was announced.

The fact is the market capital has now fallen below the critical £2 billion mark. You’re not only misleading other people you’re misleading yourself.

Anyway don’t expect another reply from me - I don’t need to smash you again - your Rolls Royce investment tragedy will do that for me - every day for years to come!!!

Toff

I can’t see this rights issue succeeding. The shareprice is in total meltdown.
If it continues in free fall where will the shareprice be on 23 October, when the RI is supposedly formalized.

40-50p?

At those prices you’d be asked to pay more than double the amount of your existing holding for their new shares. But the RI will be aborted before then if the shareprice continues to plunge - that’s a vote of no confidence if ever there was one.

It was an ill conceived RI that was left TOO LATE. A disaster born out of panic.

My prediction- RI is 50/50
And then nationalization beckons.

And I am rarely wrong

Toff

BigLoss

“Actually, thinking about it. For each old share you get to buy 3.333333 RI shares, i.e. 10 for 3. So it would be cheaper to buy 1 old share than 3.3333333 RI share. Please correct me if I am wrong.“
___________
The magic number of £1.066666666 is doubly significant because once the SP reaches there the market cap will be £2 billion - the same as the rights issue.

At that point shareholders will have to pay the same amount for the new shares as the value of their existing holding. And for every penny Rolls falls below that magic number investors will be paying more.

I know some people (the ones wading neck deep in Rolls shares) would disagree, but I know jiggery poker when I see it.

The board presented the RI at 41 percent discounted, which is absolute nonsense. How can there be a discount on shares when a company with a £2 billion MC is raising £2 billion. That can only mean people are paying more to retain their share of the company when it falls below the magic number. And if it falls to 80-90p next week - and it looks like it will - the RI will be in serious trouble.

Toff