Member Info for tnbird

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Let me Start with this clear statement:

The following is pure speculation but worth thinking about!!

The Sheffield’s coming on board is a truly positive outcome. That said, I humbly believe the timing of their addition/acquisition to both our stake and across the way is well intended on their side of the fence. A true business move to understand and perhaps win the play.

What do I mean by that?? They are true experts in the field of hydraulic fracking, and I don’t believe they would jump on board if they did not know the challenges and the steps to overcome those challenges and the massive reward when those challenges are managed correctly and overcome with knowledgeable action. Specifically, the challenges of the cost to make this a real play going forward, the installation of real and timely action (equipment and personnel) to complete the play; and, perhaps most importantly, the opportunity to be first in line to be a buyer of the play. They made some real dough on their moves in the states and have a tremendous network of skilled players, both independent and public players with deep, deep pockets. Personally, I think they jumped into the play to be positioned to be the owner of this play……perhaps the entire pie…….Falcon, Origin, Empire, et.al. Take the entire acreage and win the long haul compensation which will be in the trillions of dollars….not just billions. They know geology and the challenges of overcoming the quirks necessary for this to be a commercial play; something that Origin has certainly proven themselves to be very, very weak at understanding on top of being time burners with no action. Yes, the politics are a challenge but that is true in almost every oil and gas play in democracies as “Greenies” are everywhere around the world. The Sheffield’s have had to manage that challenge as well. In summary, I personally believe that the slow action right now may in fact be that deals are being discussed for a “Sheffield Group” takeover of more than just our play….or, perhaps just our play. The Beetaloo is massive and our acreage is likely the sweet spot and the Sheffield’s have acquired positions in two plays to study that possibility (my opinion) of what is the best go and is all of it potentially worth jumping into when studying the geology……is it a smart acquisition?? Perhaps we will see sooner than later ……I personally hope so!! It might be a sale lower than we had hoped for but time is killing us long holders. Personally, I would vote yes for a $1.00 US per share. The risk……..is this truly a commercial play?? I think the Sheffield’s believe…..yes…..with correct oversight and management.

@Newto "Therefore, I fully expect a clear timeline on this year's program from POQ when he gets back from his meetings in Australian with Origin, (and other Beetaloo players), in the next week or two."
Wait.....did I miss some announcement that POQ was travelling to Australia for a meeting..........how do we know this is occurring or is this pure speculation?? Hopefully he is doing something for his pay!! :-)

@VegasGal.......I was thinking the same thing....typically later in the year. Maybe they have a good surprise to announce. Fingers crossed..........LOL.......but probably wishful thinking. Probably just a timing change and to anoint the new additions to the board.

@Newto. Thanks for your perspective as always. Much appreciated but I must admit was hoping we could all be out in 2023. Hopefully these actions will drive the sp higher end of 2022 into 23. Certainly if the new horizontals produce the projected flow rates new value will be the reward for us all.

Is the Plan Changing??

“-- Obtain a production rate over the first 30 days of between 2-3
MMscf/d to support a multi-well pilot program in 2023/24.”

While the update on Stage 3 actions is informative and welcome, I have to admit the above bullet point creates a question mark regarding the historical plan to sale vs. live through production, as well as seeming to extend plans well beyond 2023. Perhaps with the addition of Shefield’s holdings and Layman’s knowledge supporting their experienced involvement in the industry one has to ask has POQ reconsidered the historical plan to sale??

That said, I do think the move to drill a new hole and test another horizontal in a separate zone is better than two horizontals off the same pad as this will serve to highlight the existence of the same TOC across the organic horizon. A thought on that, could that move (yet only 10km away) be to serve the proving up of organic content to highlight organics across the horizon to enhance a sale vs. living through production. Just thinking out loud!!!!!!!

Any thoughts on this is appreciated……….

What say you? Good time for another investor meet presentation by POQ to discuss status of activity (wet season over) the Sheffield action among other notable thoughts on 2022 and 2023 especially as the future is related to recent government actions to expedite development. The govt obviously believes the resources are in the ground.

Well Stated Newto.....I think many of us "longs" have held this same concern for a long and lingering time

"It would be a bonus to see a true E&P company like Santos, Pioneer, or Chevron -- come in and take most of Origin's position off their hands. This way we could hopefully have a primarily E&P company driving this project forward with some real skill and improved timelines??"

The buyer is one thing but who is the seller..........the share's are coming from someone.......???
02-Feb-22 15:59:39 10.28 150,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 15.42k O
02-Feb-22 16:19:10 10.478 75,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 7,859 O
02-Feb-22 16:15:18 10.525 94,964 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 9,995 O
01-Feb-22 09:52:34 10.11 229,261 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 23.18k O
01-Feb-22 16:02:47 10.31 350,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 36.09k O
01-Feb-22 11:03:37 10.35 278,118 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 28.79k O
01-Feb-22 08:14:19 11.40 377,964 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 43.09k O
01-Feb-22 08:18:15 11.50 210,431 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 24.20k O
01-Feb-22 14:59:54 9.615 238,398 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 22.92k O
02-Feb-22 17:06:47 10.55 60,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 6,330 O
02-Feb-22 15:48:01 10.02 100,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 10.02k

@FalconMan.......I learned about this good luck charm at WM in 2008.....Lake Tahoe......attended the 2009 Vegas run as well...been a long haul.... Bruner was in attendance too.......hosted By Kip........

To me the most telling bullet point is this:
Multiple upcoming news events to de-risk the play and drive it beyond appraisal •
The ending phrase of "drive it beyond appraisal" is most telling and valuable, especially since coming directly from the horses mouth.....The big question to this is the timeline........2022 or 2023??

Admittedly.....While perhaps overly optimistic we should look at bullet points 3 and 4 below to drive that optimism "the play is on" and "drive it beyond appraisal".........FOG's language to smile at......just saying..........At the end of the day and on a personal level I think we will realistically see between a $1.00 US to $4.00 US per share for FOG's piece of the pie. There is a lot of geology across the 4.6 Mil acres and organic horizons within this aerial extent that likely hold the same metrics to what is now already known. Exciting times indeed.........FINALLY :-)
Falcon’s Value Proposition 2022
• US$100m Market Cap at 7.5p, 1 million net acres, current value per acre of US$100
• Possible shale valuations: Exploration US$1,000->Appraisal US$4,000->Production US$12,000 (1)
• 5X increase in normalized flow rates at Amungee NW-1H – the play is on…
• Multiple upcoming news events to de-risk the play and drive it beyond appraisal
• Santos expected to fracture and flow test two 1,000m horizontal wells before year-end
• Major 2022 capex programs anticipated by all four operators in the Beetaloo
• 2022 activity could lead to a recategorization of Contingent Resources to Reserves
• Net Contingent Resources of 1.46 TCF – calculated only over 1/8 of Falcon’s acreage
• Prospect of Declaration of Commerciality in 2022
• Falcon remains “carried” as part of current A$264 million work program
(1) Possible shale valuations estimated from publicly available disclosures in the period from March 2018 to October 2021

• Falcon/Origin permits 4.6 Million Acres total aerial footprint
• FOG @ 22.5% = 1,035,000 Acres net attributable
• Amungee footprint is at 1/8 of the acreage which is equal to 575,000 Acres or net attributable to
FOG = to 129,375 Acres (Amungee Only)
So, using the published breakout and reference to US oil and gas acreage values in known transactions and referencing POQ’s statement that Amungee “could be” classified in the commercialization window 2022 and balance of acreage likely in the appraisal stage (yet to be classified commercial end of 2022) one can calculate a potential valuation proposition end of 2022 if all falls in line i.e. Santos/Tamboran, Empire & Origin see flow rates as a market of commercialization.
Falcon’s potential value End of 2022:
(1) Amungee *129,375Acres @ $4,000.00 US Appraisal = $517,500,000.00 US
*(Likely Transforming from Contingent to Reserves in 2022)
**Balance of Acres: 905,625Acres @ $1,000.00 US Exploration = $905,625,000.00 US
Value w Knowns: = $1,423,125,000.00 US
Share Value: = $1.45 US
** Potential to convert from exploration to appraisal valuation view from suitors for 905,625 Acres end of 2022 with various factors supported by additional work by Origin and information from the other Beetaloo players across the geographical horizons aerial extent.
(2) FOG Balance of Acres: 905,625 Acres @ $4,000.00 US Appraisal = $3,625,500,000.00 US
Value w Potential New Knowns:
$517,500,000.00 (Amungee) + 3,625,500,000.00 (Balance of Acreage) = $4,143,000,000.00 US
Share Value w Potential New Knowns: = $4.22 US
One has to consider : Would the Amungee Acres, once they’re classified as reserves, be valued at the production value rate of $12,000.00 US per acre?? Perhaps….

RTD.....I'm of the opinion that the exploration teams are sharing information. The reference to each other in various reporting(s) implies this is the case. Moreover, info sharing benefits the entirety of goals and target attainment for the Beetaloo across all teams. But....just an opinion view.

I guess they're now pointing to the appraisal phase with reliance predominately on others to define i.e. Tamboran...Santos....and Empire.........Go figure.......

Cheddar........funny but likely not Oleo.......Oleo is too detailed and knowledgeable on site work logistics and geology. POQ is a banker......unless reading from a script POQ couldn't come close to Oleo's insights :-)

Oleo thanks for the insight. I’m sure many on the board appreciate your thoughts. Sorry I mis-stated the 5mmcft/day language.

Oleo
What are your thoughts on the recent Beetaloo Amungee flow rate update to 5 mcft/day??

Newto and Darnit……great posts. It really is feeling as though all the pieces are finally falling into place.

NPV-10 (Industry Standard Resource Valuation)

• 465TCF (Projected across all horizons as basis) Note: Probably Higher, figures used here well below 2015 February Gross Estimate Base across 4.6 million Gross Acres (Basis in 2015 was 496 TCF with various resources predicting more than 500 TCF with a 16% recovery factor)
• @16% Recoverable = 72.96 TCF (Conservation Base per Origin and Falcon February 2015)
• 22.5% Net Falcon or 16.416 TCF Net Falcon (Now)
• 16.416 TCF / 1000 BBoE or 16,416,000,000 BBoE Net FOG X well head estimated value of $3.75 (US) = $61,560,000,000 over life of the project or typical base of 30 years…..not considering unknown depletion rates so this is variable
• $61,560,000,000 NPV 10 applicable valuation rating or $6,156,000,000.00. NPV-10 takes into consideration cost to surface resource …..infrastructure etc.
• $6,156,000,000.00 / 981,487,425 shares issued not including options = $6.27/share could be a realistic value for future sale based on available industry standard calculation methods. Common sense (if applied) in the business world could imply that we should see any where from $3 to $5 US per share in a future sale when looking at the entirety of 4.6 Million Acres……..could be lower could be higher…..but this model of NPV-10 provides a reasonable base for comparison of possibility when looking at the entirety of the 4.6 million acres.

Applicable:
Amungee Only 2C Knowns Falcon Net NPV-10
• Middle Velkerri B Shale Pool 2C Contingent Gas Resource Estimates within EP76, EP98 and EP117 as of 2015 February as known basis.

• 1.46 TCF Net Attributable Falcon

• 1.46 TCF …….1.46 TCF / 1000BBoE = 1,460,000,000 equivalent x $3.75US well head surface value or $5,475,000,000 US considering NPV-10 current value based on known 2C based on Amungee applicable to existing permits per February 2015

• Current value using Amungee only applicable across identified permits per February 2015 basis our present value should be $547,500,000 US / 981,487,425 shares issued not including options or roughly $0.56 US per share....present value view

Summary: Granted…commercial prove up will be crucial to these numbers being real but one can see the huge potential that rest within Falcon as Origin and our neighbors Santos, Empire, etc. move forward