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Truly a shareholder disgrace represented by Origin and Falcon........The lack of information and appearance of no activity is actually beyond a disgrace to shareholders. Some can try an justify the lack of info and activity but there is really nothing that can be said to support quality business management at this point in time. Here we are June 15, 2021 and the appearance of do nothingness is disgraceful. I am sure like most....hanging in because we've been here too long to walk. The geology looks awesome but delivery of development is beyond sad. Have made some minimal financial progress with Empire on a small share ownership scale but at least they are informative and represent a positive quality of effort.
@ Newto. another quote from your recent post “The changes to the JV in April of last year gave Origin the formal ability to go out and do Farm-in deals if they wanted -- which would be very much in Falcon's best interest -- as any Farm-in would increase Falcon's value going forward. This minor change was not in the written press release, and wasn't really required to be noted -- as Falcon would never have refused a Farm-in by Origin prior to the renegotiated JV in April of 2020 anyway.”
So. Again. Please clarify what public basis supports this view your putting out there. Is there inside information that makes this true???Where is this formal ability publicly know. other than there statement they plan to consider farming down. Is that the basis of Falcon being subservient to that posture??? Just trying to understand how this is factually known.
Newto: Some Clarification.....would be helpful....you state "Origin was given the full right to go ahead and do any Farm-In deals they wanted a year ago when they increased the spending cap and both reduced Falcon's ownership position and gained full control over the E&P timeline. Origin's newly acquired control let's them do Farm-Ins without Falcon's approval whenever they want to do so"
What evidence in the public domain exist regarding your statement.....below is the only public information that can be found regarding the new deal posted as of April 7, 2020 ........https://falconoilandgas.com/2020/04/07/beetaloo-farm-out/
If more is out there please direct us to the info........
I tend to believe given Origin and Falcon's lack of movement that Oil's hypothesis could be accurate albeit at a market limited valuation based on knowns within our permits and those outside our permits. Like you Newt......I agree commercialization will be more advantageous long-term but the key word......is LONG.....two more years is probably even frustrating to Nicholas et al......For 2021.....nothing is occurring so something through a common sense lens must be up!!! What can this ridiculous delay in effort be about??
Powerful Opportunities Quashed….new mantra for our wonderful leader POQ. LOL.....Here we are almost six months into 2021 and no evidence exists that something is underway for the development of the resources we jointly own in the BEETALOO BASIN. Supposedly world class resources….we are told and the industry and government seem to support. All I can say is……WOW. How can we go from “get it done” actions to no action at all? I know I’m singing to the choir, but this is beyond sad. At a minimum, we should be updated on what is not occurring and why!! As joint owners of this resource we deserve that disclosure. While pure speculation I admit, the change in POQ’s posture since the new deal with Origin is alarming. Why the continued silence when we hear, fairly consistently, from Santos, Empire et al on status of actions? Origin as an E&P manager is pathetic (or they have a hidden agenda) and the deal organized by POQ is yes….on POQ’s back. If he agreed to sign an NDA restricting release of information within the structure of the new deal reducing our level down to 22.5% while also relinquishing operational control he should at least disclose that his information sharing is restricted….tough as that may be!! But, one hidden positive could be that a deal, while probably very low compared to what could be, may be driving the slow movement….doubful I know… but possible. Silence can often point to actions being organized to define the terms of an acquisition with the silence in place to protect accidental disclosure of pending potential steps. Perhaps “pie in the sky” but maybe the silence has a positive purpose. Hopeful conjecture I know!!
19 March 2021 – Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) is pleased to provide details of the 2021 work
program in the Beetaloo Sub-Basin, Northern Territory, Australia with our joint venture partner, Origin Energy B2
Pty Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Origin Energy Limited (“Origin”).
The 2021 work program is expected to include the following:
Resume clean-up operations of Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2 (“Kyalla 117”) and commence an extended production test
(“EPT”) .............................................................................................................. (YES....BUT WHEN)
Drill Velkerri 76 S2-1 vertical well (“Velkerri 76”)............................................. (YES....BUT WHEN)
Perform a production test at Amungee NW 1H................................................ (YES....BUT WHEN)
Gosh.....Maybe when its really temperate in June and or July.....this is becoming a joke in terms of lack of information sharing.....WE WAIT and Force speculation as owners of this company.....I suppose we will eventually win but details of the planning would be so very nice to hear..........
For the most part outside of Covid and the moratorium....the problems that Origin have run into are mostly self imposed as presented through their lack of experience and failure to develop a learning curve........they are a utility delivery company not an E&P ......Yes, it is a bit of a challenging footprint the Beetaloo, but proper planning and management of the knowns i.e. terrain, infrastructure, weather and politics in any business gets one through the battle......now we have the government throwing in significant money per well Origin and is doing very little in 2021 (Calendar) and (Fiscal is yet an uncertainty in to 2022). It's as I stated in another post....maddening business management
@ Newto " will expand the past discussions with companies like Inpex, and Conoco Philips"
I concur that proven and commercial resources will drive a number for sale....but have two questions?
1. Have we seen the basis details of the new JV agreement as shareholders beyond the cost and reduction in our 30% stake??
2. as quoted above......have we had past discussions already with Inpex and Conoco Phillips??
We all “pontificate” on Falcon’s now and the future as many of us have a lot riding on the hype we received years ago from Bruner and others. To that, I to believe the geology points to a future of success for each of us (as POODs points to)…..unfortunately, I also believe this potentially huge “world class” oil and gas holding we jointly own in the Beetaloo is being highly manipulated……..and here is a question we have all let slide with an answer that may point to the game being played……Why did Sasol walk away??? Again….the past often points to the now!!! Yes, we have had the moratorium and covid and poor execution by Origin (which is a utilities delivery company, not an E&P) so, why did Sasol…..a true oil and gas execution company walk away?? I think the evidence before us points to the answer……SASOL WANTED TO GET THINGS DONE and Origin wanted to play the politics of Australia and manipulation. Purely speculation…I know…but why did Sasol walk from a huge potential return on investment. We have never been told the truth on this matter as well as others. Why did Sasol walk?? We don’t know!! POQ was boisterous early on and even projected an out timeline in numerous presentations. Yes, we’ve had political and natural set backs but what if Sasol remained in play----a true oil and gas development company?? Partnerships have consequences and I suspect Sasol saw the control writing on the wall early on and didn’t want to deal with the mess before them. The mess we see evidenced now. I’m openly not a professional oil and gas guy but have been the owner of a successful small business in north America for over 30 years and the lack of execution on this project is beyond maddening…WHY?? Like many I believe the agenda is prewritten and POQ’s change of openness is evidence of such. He has been silenced by a likely handshake deal that will benefit the board and him greatly and us not as much as it should. As I have written before, it benefits Origin greatly to keep the price on the low side especially if the back of the napkin deal is a stock or stock/cash deal. I think we will win on this play but not at the level we should. If one runs industry standard models of valuation on what we know now we should be sitting much, much higher than today’s US $0.0938 value per share. Why is POQ so silent and why did Sasol walk away?? We don’t know on Sasol because I suspect they had to sign a nondisclosure agreement and POQ will never explain his execution of change of heart on openness to share holders probably because he too can’t or it would disrupt his return. Good luck to all and I to believe we will win…just not at the level we should using industry standard value models. The past points to the now!!
DP ....great post and very informative information from Empire's leader on their view of their active site and surrounding acreage, the economics related to steps forward and anticipated results thereto. The level of directness and honesty of hope for economics moving forward is enlightening. It would be nice if our FOG folks would layout the same level of detail rather than the vagueness we continue to receive. Quite telling that Empire plans to use their assets to grow the resource. Seems like a reasonable strategy.....while different than Falcon's goal of prove and sale the knowledge presented is worth the time to view.
OilC99..........I think you are likely correct regarding the manipulation. It is very much to the benefit of Origin in a potential buyout to keep the price suppressed.....especially if a stock and/or stock cash buyout deal. If a deal is a dollar or under I'm prayerful that it will be a cash only deal.....but I doubt it. At this point in time......I'll take a dollar US and move on......Sad that we have become so beaten up that we're good for a dollar when this should be valued so so much higher if managed in a real market way.......as to the recent RNS....typical vagueness ...gonna do this and that in 2021 but no detail on if simultaneously completed or this and then that........just adds to the frustration.........