Member Info for tnbird

Thanks Newto.......I read that at origination and subsequently.... I guess I am missing something on the added power other than money from Origin

For the most part outside of Covid and the moratorium....the problems that Origin have run into are mostly self imposed as presented through their lack of experience and failure to develop a learning curve........they are a utility delivery company not an E&P ......Yes, it is a bit of a challenging footprint the Beetaloo, but proper planning and management of the knowns i.e. terrain, infrastructure, weather and politics in any business gets one through the battle......now we have the government throwing in significant money per well Origin and is doing very little in 2021 (Calendar) and (Fiscal is yet an uncertainty in to 2022). It's as I stated in another post....maddening business management

@ Newto " will expand the past discussions with companies like Inpex, and Conoco Philips"
I concur that proven and commercial resources will drive a number for sale....but have two questions?
1. Have we seen the basis details of the new JV agreement as shareholders beyond the cost and reduction in our 30% stake??
2. as quoted above......have we had past discussions already with Inpex and Conoco Phillips??

We all “pontificate” on Falcon’s now and the future as many of us have a lot riding on the hype we received years ago from Bruner and others. To that, I to believe the geology points to a future of success for each of us (as POODs points to)…..unfortunately, I also believe this potentially huge “world class” oil and gas holding we jointly own in the Beetaloo is being highly manipulated……..and here is a question we have all let slide with an answer that may point to the game being played……Why did Sasol walk away??? Again….the past often points to the now!!! Yes, we have had the moratorium and covid and poor execution by Origin (which is a utilities delivery company, not an E&P) so, why did Sasol…..a true oil and gas execution company walk away?? I think the evidence before us points to the answer……SASOL WANTED TO GET THINGS DONE and Origin wanted to play the politics of Australia and manipulation. Purely speculation…I know…but why did Sasol walk from a huge potential return on investment. We have never been told the truth on this matter as well as others. Why did Sasol walk?? We don’t know!! POQ was boisterous early on and even projected an out timeline in numerous presentations. Yes, we’ve had political and natural set backs but what if Sasol remained in play----a true oil and gas development company?? Partnerships have consequences and I suspect Sasol saw the control writing on the wall early on and didn’t want to deal with the mess before them. The mess we see evidenced now. I’m openly not a professional oil and gas guy but have been the owner of a successful small business in north America for over 30 years and the lack of execution on this project is beyond maddening…WHY?? Like many I believe the agenda is prewritten and POQ’s change of openness is evidence of such. He has been silenced by a likely handshake deal that will benefit the board and him greatly and us not as much as it should. As I have written before, it benefits Origin greatly to keep the price on the low side especially if the back of the napkin deal is a stock or stock/cash deal. I think we will win on this play but not at the level we should. If one runs industry standard models of valuation on what we know now we should be sitting much, much higher than today’s US $0.0938 value per share. Why is POQ so silent and why did Sasol walk away?? We don’t know on Sasol because I suspect they had to sign a nondisclosure agreement and POQ will never explain his execution of change of heart on openness to share holders probably because he too can’t or it would disrupt his return. Good luck to all and I to believe we will win…just not at the level we should using industry standard value models. The past points to the now!!

DP ....great post and very informative information from Empire's leader on their view of their active site and surrounding acreage, the economics related to steps forward and anticipated results thereto. The level of directness and honesty of hope for economics moving forward is enlightening. It would be nice if our FOG folks would layout the same level of detail rather than the vagueness we continue to receive. Quite telling that Empire plans to use their assets to grow the resource. Seems like a reasonable strategy.....while different than Falcon's goal of prove and sale the knowledge presented is worth the time to view.

Good to hear Poods. I’m proud to be incorrect based on your generous knowledge.

OilC99..........I think you are likely correct regarding the manipulation. It is very much to the benefit of Origin in a potential buyout to keep the price suppressed.....especially if a stock and/or stock cash buyout deal. If a deal is a dollar or under I'm prayerful that it will be a cash only deal.....but I doubt it. At this point in time......I'll take a dollar US and move on......Sad that we have become so beaten up that we're good for a dollar when this should be valued so so much higher if managed in a real market way.......as to the recent RNS....typical vagueness ...gonna do this and that in 2021 but no detail on if simultaneously completed or this and then that........just adds to the frustration.........

@VillaMaria.........I suppose I missed the post by RG.........well that's good to hear.....my apologies on my rant...but you are right, Santos and Empire are kicking butt

Come on leadership of this play....time to provide detail on what the plan is for 2021 regarding proving up this play. Not a complicated obligation......you either have details (not generalities) in place for moving forward or you don't. As owners of this play we have a right to know the plan and you have an obligation to let us know. Oh...just take a look at Empire and Santos if you need some guidance on what to say and information to provide...........just saying!! Tell us directly what you plan to do on 117 or the flank. Tell us if your doing the two laterals........tell us if your intentionally standing by.......just tell us

Well stated Oilcountry.....not to hard to reveal the plan for the next few months.

https://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/210222-EEG-Update-Final.pdf
Sure would be nice to have some folks boasting about our resources......Yes, we have the dough to drill and no marketing needed for that but we certainly have a lot more to sale contingent or otherwise than what is known within Empire.....yes...to be fair I do have some empire on the board.......all be it a small marker compared to FOG...FOLGF.....but Empire is being recognized and we are not.........

Bottom Line and would be quite simple and revealing......Why doesn't Origin and/or Falcon just let us and the general public know what the plan is for the next few months?? They have permits, they appear to have the indigenous population informed and so on.....and the Aussie gov is going to throw in some money.... I guess that is too complicated for some silly reason........hmmmm!

Stebol......My guess..... if it is not Origin likely will be INPEX.......I'm hopeful if we get good numbers on the two new horizontals just approved and they improve the recent shows on liquids we will get some folks knocking on the door.....if Origin and FOG don't already have a back of the napkin deal on the table a bidding war could evolve and INPEX obviously has the dough to fight for more space in the BEETALOO

https://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/beetaloo-strategic-basin-plan.pdf
Haven't completed reading this but paints a good picture so far

Yes DP.....good find. Thanks for the post.......hopefully with the government funding drilling....if applicable to these new horizontals..... perhaps Origin will get this done and the flow completed on our most recent liquids show.......let us hope they get both matters managed in the dry season......oh, its pretty dry there now...... : -)

Merve....point well made....but to newbies they may not know the history.......and it is amusing as you state and points to how far behind we are.....just thought it to be historically informative and points to the wait that continues........leading to a WHY??

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/fracker-falcon-oil-gas-hunts-a-major-payday-for-investors-1.2279377

Ya we've had the moratorium and covid but we are woefully way behind........given POQ's own words ...enjoy

Otd............Took a brief look.....what is posted via the link is three years old and archived..can't upvote on it either...perhaps we could jump in and get some updated news flowing...........

Some Market Info via empire.....open about the risks but leaning upside.....

https://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/AUS_EEG_210223_Plenty_2C_and_do_at_Carpentaria_1.pdf

Ultimately......what is in the ground will pay us.......and, in my opinion that will be anywhere from $1 to $8 US/Share depending on who makes the purchase based on timing. The longer we are forced to wait the more that will be known/proven vs contingent etc. Simple math easily points to a range of possibilities given the massive acreage and what is being revealed by others (Santos/Empire/Etc) in the play not to mention the governments commitment to help get the resources to the surface. That in itself is telling. Yes, I would take $0.50/share US today but that is driven by current life matters. But, I think if we wait that is likely going to be much much higher. Even a future $1.00/US/Share is worth a long-term future smile. I think and hope....likely much higher. Bottom line....as I think Dprussky voiced....I think a deal with Origin is already on the back of the napkin and will be the lowest payer to Falcon....it just makes the most sense. A deal that could be sooner rather than through a long-term wait.