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some Brunner history in his own words from 2010
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW2X7dG8jQA
Camelot et. al. Your frustrations with leadership are shared by many on this board. We have to be honest with ourselves and recognize that if we were in POQ’s shoes earning the wages that he receives for limited responsibility we too would be slow on the draw to closure. Yes, he will be well rewarded when this investment closes successfully, but in the meantime, there is little incentive to pull the trigger until more is known, or at least publicly shared. Like many on this board I suspect that POQ and the BOD know much more than they sharing, and I think this may be intentional to present any deal (when published) to have the appearance of greatness. Yes, the more that is proved the greater the value to us all. To that end, the other E&P entities are also working to connect the dots across the NT. I suspect FOG and these concerns are sharing what they know in an effort to value toward commercialization across the entire NT oil and gas horizons. That benefits everyone!! No doubt that POQ is truly overpaid for the effort his job requirements demand he put forth. His biggest historical problem has been his multiple statements regarding openness and sharing of information….he fails on this massively. With that, it seems to point to his lack of concern for retail holders like us and some likely intent to keep share price minimized so he can look accomplished when (FOG) eventually sales to Origin or Inpex or whomever. Someone posted a reference to lack of business knowledge by posters a day or two ago and the demands thereto. That would be an applicable argument if in fact FOG had a body of employees to manage, services to deliver and/or products to produce. POQ just has to monitor the market, ensure that the company remains listing compliant, and from time to time, perhaps travel or Zoom to meet with Origin or other concerns. He literally lives in a stress-free work environment. Origin is in charge…..not POQ. That was confirmed in the recent deal. But was it?? We do not know the details of that deal!! I bet the big block holders do know the true value within the details of that deal and their deep pockets aren’t as risked as ours. Like others, I believe the back of a napkin, wink..wink deal is not written but foretold in that deal within and through a handshake window of what may be proven. Only time will tell!! We wait and hope for the delivery of information….not likely with this leadership given the history to date. Only the sale in late 2021 or mid to late 2022 along with an occasional spike as activity confirms what is in the ground will bring us real value. No demand until that occurs, we wait!! Bottom line, presently there is no demand for this stock on the open market and that is on the back of current and historical leadership. Marc Brunner did great harm to the market believing in Falcon. Especially related to Hungary. Fortunately, POQ has repaired Brunner's structural catastrophes. I do believe this will be a winner. GLTA
“NPV10” means, with respect to any Proved Reserves expected to be produced from the Eligible Mortgaged Properties, the net present value of the future net revenues expected to accrue to Restricted Persons’ interests in such Reserves during the remaining expected economic lives of such Reserves, discounted at 10% per annum. Each calculation of such expected future net revenues shall be made as of the date requested in accordance with the then existing standards of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers, provided that in any event:
(Granted.....we aren't proven yet....but close)
Newto.....NPV-10 takes into account the future costs you describe. NPV-10 will be the industry model used to price a purchase. Here is a "potential" NPV-10 Calculation estimate based on the one contingent value we know........Valkerri B only.......based on the assignment of resources to Falcons piece of that pie.........Granted.......proven is what will be the real driver........
Per the 15 Feb 2017 Notice of Discovery Numbers for Middle Velkerri B Shale ONLY EP76, 98 & 117
Net Attributable to Falcon was 1.94 TCF Contingent at 29.43% working interest.
That net would now be Contingent of 1.49 TCF Contingent at 22.5% working interest.
Using industry standard valuation model of NPV-10 and well head conservative cost of $2.75 US here is where we should be if the world knew and/or cared.
Outstanding Shares: 981,847,425
1,490,000,000,000.00 TCF (contingent) = 1,490,000,000.00 BOE X $2.75 conservative well head cost/value = $4,097,500,000.00 US attributable to FOG
THE NPV-10 Value is then $409,750,000.00 US (Falcon Attributable) divided by issued outstanding shares…..981,847,425 = $0.42 / share
Some more supporting news via Empire....
https://mcusercontent.com/6c7d255d97b3dec4176e2a477/files/19ed0fb8-fbb0-4ac6-8d8c-a1c29fb412aa/Empire_receives_world_class_Carpentaria_1_lab_results_Energy_News_Bulletin.pdf
Yes IT .....I get they are in a bit of a marketing mode but the other side of that is they have shareholders that are being kept informed as to status and plans for next steps. On page one of their presentation under the title 'Current Drilling Programs in the Beetaloo' they have a picture table that links the E&P entities to each License / Permit .....they.... through the color model show Inpex as EP117.....perhaps it is an error on their part or I misunderstood the color coordination....nevertheless it is printed as EP117 in their model.
Nice post VegasGal........it really is nice to see how Empire works to keep shareholders informed and with wonderful detail. I noticed within Empires informative info; and, perhaps I missed through other sources, that Inpex holds EP117. That is quite interesting in itself.
Newto, WW, and Bornto: I think you provide some great observations on a buyout potential except in Newt’s reference to FOG’s largest shareholder’s patience……POQ is sitting on a nice annuity for little workload and the others have historically deep pockets…no rush in those cases. But….one short window scenario to take Falcon out is the Origin acquisition of Falcon’s remaining equity through a stock/cash buy out or stock only buy as WW referenced. In my humble view the Origin buy is the likely shortest time window for acquisition …perhaps within 2021….just a hopefully optimistic guess!! But, a second potential near term option that may surface given the government’s support now; and, the early stages of proving that organics are spread across multiple horizons and across the vast acreage by multiple E&P entities, would be for a large group like Inpex to take out both Origin and Falcon’s piece of the large pie. A question to ponder….Could Falcon and Origin sale their rights to the permits with Aussie Govt approval vs. selling all or part of Falcon and/or all or part of Origin to an Inpex or Conoco etc.??? As we all know…anything is for sale at the right price!! True, we do not know commercial values yet, but demand will push the organics to the surface in time and I humbly believe that more info is known behind the scenes or these folks to include the Aussie govt would not be investing so hugely in development and infrastructure. Yes, this buy of both or the permit licensing would be discounted at this juncture but still likely a large multi-billion spend. We have to sit back and remember when fully commercial this will be a mult-multi-trillion revenue generator over many, many years. With trillions in profit as well……when commercial!! The big guys have to always have a plan for backfilling reserves over time as much of their value is based on reserves vs depletion of reserves. Something to consider!!!!
https://mcusercontent.com/6c7d255d97b3dec4176e2a477/files/d815324c-f7b0-4266-b620-7d6fa4a176a3/Quarterly_Activities_Summary_DEC_2020_FINAL.01.pdf
Empire has posted their quarterly report and what is telling is their view of connecting the dots among the various exploration sites across the NT. There is much value in that approach. Additionally.....their leader tells the story in concise clarity. We will now likely have to wait months at this point to get clarity from our side.....lets hope not. The news is good....for our "birds" status.....hang tough and good luck to all. Maybe Origin will execute their deal in 2021 that many believe is already on the back of the napkin and we can win and smile on our way to the bank.
Sneaky:
I don't think anyone on this board doubts the engineering complexities on this well, especially given the cost.....Some posters present sound evidence and appear to have extensive knowledge of the industry. Admittedly, I am not one of those. The issue, and I agree with you that worthless info should not be presented, but, simple information such as direct and accurate timeline statements would go a long way in removing uncertainty among the holders of this stock. Here is a simple statement that would serve us all well if it came from our leadership POQ.....The equipment for the lift arrived on December 24 with the crews returning on January 1. The crews have commenced hydrogen lift protocol on January 2 and we should have results by January 9 if no issues are encountered. We look forward to providing additional information to the market when results are known. Boom.....with a simple and accurate statement like that we have a clear and precise picture of what is occurring in close to real time. POQ has indicated on numerous occasions he would be informative and fails on that mark time after time leading to unnecessary ownership discomfort. He certainly has time on his hands to sit and post a note or two.
@BCnatgas.......You are dead-on. POQ is so over worked and poorly compensated being sarcastic of course.....
Info sharing by the leadership is beyond sad. I suspect we will probably see a NR from Empire Energy informing their community of the status of our well layered within consistent news to their stock holders on their progress !!! So sad.........but we do have a promising investment......just poor leadership
Personally, I believe this is a prudent investment but have grown increasingly concerned about management of the resource….by both Falcon and Origin (yes, the operator…..but truth remains….Origin is really a utility provider not an E&P company). I hope for us all that we see the value of what is in the ground returned to us, but I do now believe, more than ever in my 12 years, for this to be accomplished in a timely fashion it would be best if Inpex or another major player acquire the entire play from Falcon and Origin. At a minimum…….it is time for Falcon Oil and Gas, while a small entity, begin to be open and transparent to include the following:
• Layout detailed Plans for Development and Monetization In Detail with internal Timelines Revealed
• Disclose the Details of the most recent Origin Agreement/Deal
• Define and detail what is in play in REALITY in South Africa
• Define and detail what is in play, if anything, with Hungary (or, Just say Hungary is done)
• Openly justify the value of leadership compensation and define and disclose what daily work protocol is required to earn said compensation. Disclose the details of the Scope of Work within the employment plan for the highest compensated executives……we know who they are!!
I suspect my rant here will have little to know impact. Maybe POQ looks at our board and maybe he will man up…..I doubt it. As one poster wrote…….he does have a nice annuity……We have to ask, is there a way to hold that accountable?? Maybe he will see value in true retirement with his holdings sold. Hopefully, he will see the frustration and recognize that this is bigger than 8 people: 2 highly compensated for minimal work, 4 to five board members, and a couple of major holders. I’m in till the end, but it’s time this is managed with openness and honesty….to date…especially since the new ORG deal…. I just don’t believe that is the case any longer.
Over the years we long-term holders have heard various stories and within those stories the unachieved (by past and current leadership) commitment to be informative. Yes, we have faced multiple obstacles….misled in Hungary…politics of South Africa…..the Aussie moratorium on Fracking…..greenies etc….……and, most recently, COVID-19. But, none of these issues prohibit leadership from being informative and transparent. Falcon’s present CEO has on numerous occasions implied intent to be informative with constant failure to do so. Very recently when providing information (with literally months between providing any level of information) the post was so vague and ill written that it appeared demeaning to the status of the well to which it referenced. And, clearly had market value impact on daily stock trade values. In all honesty, we seem to get better information from other E&P firms regarding our resource than we do from Falcon itself. This leads one to have to ask the question…..is there a hidden agenda?? As a 12 year holder of this entity I personally have become concerned with that question….what is the real agenda?? Is the potential of this resource really being so poorly managed?? Are the moves being powered by the major stock owners with little to no regard for the retail guys who are in reality the majority owner(s) of this entity?? Is there intent to drag things out so the retail holders become frustrated and depart?? I do recognize the depth and challenges of the Beetaloo regulations and how the location (in the middle of nowhere and infrastructure) impact exploration as well as time protocol but organized planning and management should be handling these matters with methods that serve to overcome them not let those issues dictate outcomes. As one poster remarked….."they are preparing to mobilize" the tubing and nitrogen. One has to be concerned with language like… “preparing to” …..It would be more clear to say the tubing and nitrogen resources will be on site by December 15, 2020. If they have procured the resources they will in fact know a date of arrival and timeline of install of said resources and have the ability to project a specific timeline for clearing the salt (saline) water build up and perhaps reveal some gas shows. The vagueness in this case is absolutely unnecessary and one has to ask for what purpose?? Why can’t they just be clear and specific?? Now and For the future, Yes, the wet season can be an issue but they also have the power as do we to study weather patterns and forecasts thereto. While the most recent sell down of another 7.5% was probably financially prudent the fact remains, we as holders of this stock have seen no public disclosure of the details especially as it pertains to control and details and specifics of what has to take place to make the deal complete and whole. We deserve to know these details as these details can help us remain confident or choose other options. (Continued)
Oh The irony. Be nice if our leadership was as detailed for us. On 25 November 2020, Origin Energy provided an operations update for its Kyalla-117 well which has been targeting the Kyalla Shale, a unit overlying Empire’s Velkerri Shale in the Beetaloo sequence. Origin General Manager for Beetaloo and Growth Assets, Tracey Boyes said “Our plan is to introduce nitrogen to lift the fluids in the well and lower pressures to assist with achieving a gas breakthrough, which is a common technique we carried out on the successful Amungee well in 2016.” Origin’s joint venture partner, Falcon Oil & Gas, has confirmed that nitrogen lift will commence this year. Origin also stated that it intends to drill, hydraulically stimulate and production test an additional horizontal well in the basin during 2021.