Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Note:
Beetaloo geology as targeted and discovered along with present known information across the organic horizon(s) for estimated and recoverable Gas in Place dictates variations in per acre value. However, the industry tends to adjust that value at the front of an estimated per acre valuation recognizing that each acre in real time will not deliver equal organic returns. So, each component (see below) can vary up and down. We should assume the posted numbers by Falcon per acre (2015 Component Estimates) are driven by ** US and international industry comparisons and stand to be valid estimates per acre for that time (Various Years pre-2015) as market values defined them. It should also be noted that current per acre values will vary based on “present” time gas market demand and current market values. So, current per acre market value for Falcon’s net acreage may in fact be higher now given the demand, need and current value at the well head driven by local and regional market demands when compared to these 9 year old components for gas acreage value. The plan was to Monetise in 2017 or 18 “based on success” per the 2015 company presentation. We now know the plan is to progress into pilot production i.e. Production From Horizontals to enhance value then monetise. HMMM!! Will it now be more valuable per acre?? Fair Question. Keep in mind that all of the basis for valuation at “Appraisal” comparison entities were each still in need of infrastructure. Perhaps not at the level of likely NT infrastructure demands but the common theme is they were not producing and had to pipe, road, permit and sale, as well!!
**$4,009 / acre1 (Appraisal)
• Statoil / Chesapeake Energy (US) Nov ‘08
• KKR / Hilcorp Resources (US)Jun ’10
• Hess / Consol (US) Oct ’11
• Aurora Oil & Gas / Eureka (AUS) Aug 12
Falcon Estimated 2015 Acreage Valuation Component by progress:
Undeveloped $844 / acre:
$844 X 1,040,000 Net Acres Falcon = $877,760,000.00 US
$877,760,000.00 / 1,044,347,425 Falcon Common Shares Issued = $0.84 US Per Share
Appraisal $4,009 / acre:
$4009.00 X 1,040,000 Net Acres Falcon = $4,169,360,000.00 US
$4,169,360,000.00 / 1,044,347,425 Falcon Common Shares Issued = $4.00 US Per Share
Production $18,489 / acre:
$18,489.00 X 1,040,000 Net Acres Falcon = $1,922,856,000.00 US
$1,922,856,000.00 / 1,044,347,425 Falcon Common Shares Issued = $18.42 US Per Share
Something to think about. Good Luck to us long time birds. I think the future is bright for us all!!
Is Falcon's share 22.5% of roughly 4 million acres?? Or a net of just over 1 million acres. If one looks at the slide it shows our net acreage at 1.4 million acres with 30% status. We're now at 22.5% so our net acreage is roughly 1.04 Million Acres. So, would the calculation be based on net value per acre?? Just wanting to clarify.........
https://falconoilandgas.com/download/final-fog-presentation-november-2022/?wpdmdl=3080&refresh=637e36b618ba91669215926
sorry if the link doesn't work :-)
Some Recent Wyoming Info:
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/08/08/billion-barrel-oil-reserve-discovery-confirmed-in-central-wyoming/
@ITGuy
Thanks for the post "Any development decision at the Beetaloo site would still have to fit within Origin’s ambition for climate neutrality by mid-century, chief executive Frank Calabria emphasised." From many perspectives this statement is scary and fairly telling.......if the context is what it appears to be.............WOW.......I guess we go for Carbon Capture safety and keep the Greenies happy........UGGGG
@Newto.........the issue is time and cash burn. It really is that simple. It appears from the MD&A that the presented language clearly differs from what POQ recently implied/stated. Again....the issue is time. They're clearly stating that funds are only good for about another year. Aug 2022 to July 23. So, one must assume when looking at the financials that it fiscally appears that Origin's side of the cost is likely going to need some support from somewhere.....perhaps part of Falcon's $17.4 mil money for phase 3 work. Hmmm.....Origin knows the potential outcome........maybe the slow drag of production has a self serving purpose........something to ponder.
Up Front let me say I am a 110% a believer in this investment. That said, and pointing to some historical concerns posted here related to future of monetary demands, I highly recommend, if you have not, go to page 21 of the MD&A. Here is some concerning language from the MD&A, keep in mind the dates and window for Phase 3 actions:
1. As at 30 June 2022 the Group had cash and cash equivalents of $17.4 million which is sufficient to cover ongoing operating costs for the next 12 months from the date of this document. (Aug 22 to July 23) DATE OF THIS DOCUMENT
2. Some change in language....A bit of a heads up here: As at 30 June 2022 the Group had cash and cash equivalents of $17.4 million which is sufficient to cover ongoing operating costs for the next 12 months from the date of this document.
3. A bit of a confidence question...it seems: The Directors and Management are confident that the further funding required beyond the twelve months can be raised through either an equity raise or debt funding. (DILLUTION??) As at the date of this document, funding requirements beyond twelve months and beyond Stage 3 have not been determined, no such further funding has been raised and there can be no certainty that sufficient funds can be raised if required. Whilst this represents an uncertainty, given the timeframe to raise these funds and the Group's history of achieving this, this is not considered a material uncertainty. Management note if sufficient funding was not raised during that period beyond 12 months and commitments under future exploration phases not met, then this could impact the Group's future participation in the underlying assets and, it may be unable to realise its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business. The interim financial statements for the three and six months ended 30 June 2022 and 2021 do not include adjustments that would result if the Group was unable to continue as a going concern. Having given due consideration to the cash requirements of the Group, the Board has a reasonable expectation that the Group will have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for a period of at least twelve months from the date of this MD&A . For this reason, the Board continues to adopt the going concern basis in preparing its consolidated financial statements which assumes the Group will be able to meet its liabilities as they fall due for the foreseeable future.
This does seem to reflect some uncertainty. Let's hope that the balance of 2022 and into August of 2023 creates a firm base for being able to either sale of have the space to acquire some new funding. It looks a bit uncomfortable at the moment....even to the management. That said, the resources appear to be in the ground let's hope and pray that extended time does not become our enemy. Come on Origin......get the ball rolling!!
https://services.choruscall.ca/DiamondPassRegistration/register?confirmationNumber=10019355&linkSecurityString=17ff65baf5
The above link is to preregister. Below defines various in country numbers for call in if not preregistered
Conference call numbers for those not pre-registering For all other shareholders and stakeholders wishing to attend the Meeting by conference call, but not ask questions, please dial the following toll free, or the international toll number approximately five minutes prior to the commencement of the Meeting and ask the operator to join Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.’s Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders: Canada / USA. Toll Free: 1-800-319-4610 UK Toll Free: 0808-101-2791 Dublin Local: +353-1-526-9448 Other International Access Toll: +1-604-638-5340
Let me Start with this clear statement:
The following is pure speculation but worth thinking about!!
The Sheffield’s coming on board is a truly positive outcome. That said, I humbly believe the timing of their addition/acquisition to both our stake and across the way is well intended on their side of the fence. A true business move to understand and perhaps win the play.
What do I mean by that?? They are true experts in the field of hydraulic fracking, and I don’t believe they would jump on board if they did not know the challenges and the steps to overcome those challenges and the massive reward when those challenges are managed correctly and overcome with knowledgeable action. Specifically, the challenges of the cost to make this a real play going forward, the installation of real and timely action (equipment and personnel) to complete the play; and, perhaps most importantly, the opportunity to be first in line to be a buyer of the play. They made some real dough on their moves in the states and have a tremendous network of skilled players, both independent and public players with deep, deep pockets. Personally, I think they jumped into the play to be positioned to be the owner of this play……perhaps the entire pie…….Falcon, Origin, Empire, et.al. Take the entire acreage and win the long haul compensation which will be in the trillions of dollars….not just billions. They know geology and the challenges of overcoming the quirks necessary for this to be a commercial play; something that Origin has certainly proven themselves to be very, very weak at understanding on top of being time burners with no action. Yes, the politics are a challenge but that is true in almost every oil and gas play in democracies as “Greenies” are everywhere around the world. The Sheffield’s have had to manage that challenge as well. In summary, I personally believe that the slow action right now may in fact be that deals are being discussed for a “Sheffield Group” takeover of more than just our play….or, perhaps just our play. The Beetaloo is massive and our acreage is likely the sweet spot and the Sheffield’s have acquired positions in two plays to study that possibility (my opinion) of what is the best go and is all of it potentially worth jumping into when studying the geology……is it a smart acquisition?? Perhaps we will see sooner than later ……I personally hope so!! It might be a sale lower than we had hoped for but time is killing us long holders. Personally, I would vote yes for a $1.00 US per share. The risk……..is this truly a commercial play?? I think the Sheffield’s believe…..yes…..with correct oversight and management.
@Newto "Therefore, I fully expect a clear timeline on this year's program from POQ when he gets back from his meetings in Australian with Origin, (and other Beetaloo players), in the next week or two."
Wait.....did I miss some announcement that POQ was travelling to Australia for a meeting..........how do we know this is occurring or is this pure speculation?? Hopefully he is doing something for his pay!! :-)
@VegasGal.......I was thinking the same thing....typically later in the year. Maybe they have a good surprise to announce. Fingers crossed..........LOL.......but probably wishful thinking. Probably just a timing change and to anoint the new additions to the board.
@Newto. Thanks for your perspective as always. Much appreciated but I must admit was hoping we could all be out in 2023. Hopefully these actions will drive the sp higher end of 2022 into 23. Certainly if the new horizontals produce the projected flow rates new value will be the reward for us all.
Is the Plan Changing??
“-- Obtain a production rate over the first 30 days of between 2-3
MMscf/d to support a multi-well pilot program in 2023/24.”
While the update on Stage 3 actions is informative and welcome, I have to admit the above bullet point creates a question mark regarding the historical plan to sale vs. live through production, as well as seeming to extend plans well beyond 2023. Perhaps with the addition of Shefield’s holdings and Layman’s knowledge supporting their experienced involvement in the industry one has to ask has POQ reconsidered the historical plan to sale??
That said, I do think the move to drill a new hole and test another horizontal in a separate zone is better than two horizontals off the same pad as this will serve to highlight the existence of the same TOC across the organic horizon. A thought on that, could that move (yet only 10km away) be to serve the proving up of organic content to highlight organics across the horizon to enhance a sale vs. living through production. Just thinking out loud!!!!!!!
Any thoughts on this is appreciated……….
What say you? Good time for another investor meet presentation by POQ to discuss status of activity (wet season over) the Sheffield action among other notable thoughts on 2022 and 2023 especially as the future is related to recent government actions to expedite development. The govt obviously believes the resources are in the ground.