Member Info for tnbird

Folks...let's all calm down. Name calling and bashing another's opinion on moves and /or buy/sell moves isn't doing us or this stock any justice. We are all frustrated with where we sit at this juncture....especially us long-term holders. I too am frustrated and hold huge questions regarding the current leadership as well as Origin's commitment to making good and timely decisions. I do honestly believe their is a hidden agenda or we would be in a better place given what is known and what is likely to be....time will tell. As I previously posted....I've never held as many question marks toward this stock as I do now, but I need to stay.....and, with that, I do believe we will be rewarded well in the end. Painful as the wait has been and may continue for a year or so. BC.....Reddit is not just a short sale players platform and r/pennystock has a huge amount of international followers as well as other boards on Reddit......no need to beat on Newto for his view......he actually has a decent idea if we could get international interest playing in on FOG through and on the many Reddit boards. Fine if you want to call me an idiot too....big smile is all that will get from me. All that said......bashing each other will not change where we are.

https://mcusercontent.com/6c7d255d97b3dec4176e2a477/files/ef96f79f-0a8c-4b92-b035-bbb2ccf3ec27/21022021_Material_Beetaloo_Resource_Upgrade.pdf

Who is the consultant in Australia....for Falcon Australia receiving 2.5Mil options? Interesting they don’t state name.

Let's all sit back and ponder for a moment. As Newto stated we know with decent flow rates on a limited frac distance along with some challenges that we have 22.5% of 6.6 TCF contingent on our side with the Amungee discovery alone on just one horizon or 1.49 TCF assignable to Falcon. We know that Empire and Santos are progressing with good numbers identifying likely commercial rates/zones. We have recent news on the Kyalla with questionable promise (more info to come....hopefully). Few if any of the organic horizons of the Beetaloo will be conventional oil and gas recoveries, but we do know the powers that be believe there may be as much as 546 TCF +/- in play across the NT. Using Origins conservative model of 16% recoverable that may offer us (Origin/Falcon) to be in play for nearly 88 TCF (nice chunk). So...with a conservative model if proved to commercial levels (the unknown) Falcon should be sitting on, @22.5% business interest, just under 20 TCF of wet and dry gas. We now have the Aussie govt showing it's hand with their commitment to invest in bringing these resources to the surface. We have to ask the question....would the govt risk tax payer money if they...the govt....didn't believe in the Beetaloo??....ya, ya it’s government but they will have to answer if their input of tax dollars fail. So why is the market ignoring this......?? Who knows….is it manipulated….who really knows?? I’ve been here for just over 12 years and have stayed with the roller coaster ride….I believe this has nothing but a win attached to it…..my question is this given what appears to be growing lack of market confidence after all the knowns……Does this board believe we still have a bright future?? I do and I foolishly have a lot riding on this play. Thoughts would be most appreciated. I know many have been on board longer than 12 years. I believe in this play but have to admit my tenure is starting to fill with more doubt than I’ve considered in the past.

tsoprano1.........you make a good point Why did the big guys not pick up the bankruptcy court shares?......well, they might be restricted from doing so since Bruner was in that play and him....Bruner being connected with Falcon through 2011....
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1298824/000119312506216742/dex992.htm

A great idea Newto......
Looking at Reddit and Robinhood it appears that only stocks listed on the Robinhood app are allowed for trading. I have no idea if FOG is there but we could perhaps research the process and promote to get that done. But, that does not prohibit sharing of information on Reddit and the various posting sites.....r/pennystock or others etc as listed on Reddit. This could benefit us retailers to get active in that space.

@Longwait
'So, for us longs, we have heard all the promises, potentials, failures and excuses before. It is a manipulated stock by some very big players.'
Are the two sentences above two quite separate points, or are you saying that the company's prospects have been exaggerated in order to cause disillusionment and consequent low share price?

I believe Guernica is presenting two separate views but connected...He is referencing the various excuses and tales and limited vague information that have been spouted historically and currently (with intent) while also offering the view that the deep pocket players and some potential MMs (perhaps in collusion) have intentionally manipulated the stock to hold it low so retail holders will walk so they (the big holders and players) can grab more on the cheap .....he's saying they know the value as it really should be but play it to accomplish a self serving end.....that being.....get it cheap a little at a time prior to the big day.......to that and if with intent....and reasonable to consider......a low FOG stock price would inherently benefit a buyer of FOG if the purchase is a stock and/or stock cash deal.

some Brunner history in his own words from 2010

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW2X7dG8jQA

Camelot et. al. Your frustrations with leadership are shared by many on this board. We have to be honest with ourselves and recognize that if we were in POQ’s shoes earning the wages that he receives for limited responsibility we too would be slow on the draw to closure. Yes, he will be well rewarded when this investment closes successfully, but in the meantime, there is little incentive to pull the trigger until more is known, or at least publicly shared. Like many on this board I suspect that POQ and the BOD know much more than they sharing, and I think this may be intentional to present any deal (when published) to have the appearance of greatness. Yes, the more that is proved the greater the value to us all. To that end, the other E&P entities are also working to connect the dots across the NT. I suspect FOG and these concerns are sharing what they know in an effort to value toward commercialization across the entire NT oil and gas horizons. That benefits everyone!! No doubt that POQ is truly overpaid for the effort his job requirements demand he put forth. His biggest historical problem has been his multiple statements regarding openness and sharing of information….he fails on this massively. With that, it seems to point to his lack of concern for retail holders like us and some likely intent to keep share price minimized so he can look accomplished when (FOG) eventually sales to Origin or Inpex or whomever. Someone posted a reference to lack of business knowledge by posters a day or two ago and the demands thereto. That would be an applicable argument if in fact FOG had a body of employees to manage, services to deliver and/or products to produce. POQ just has to monitor the market, ensure that the company remains listing compliant, and from time to time, perhaps travel or Zoom to meet with Origin or other concerns. He literally lives in a stress-free work environment. Origin is in charge…..not POQ. That was confirmed in the recent deal. But was it?? We do not know the details of that deal!! I bet the big block holders do know the true value within the details of that deal and their deep pockets aren’t as risked as ours. Like others, I believe the back of a napkin, wink..wink deal is not written but foretold in that deal within and through a handshake window of what may be proven. Only time will tell!! We wait and hope for the delivery of information….not likely with this leadership given the history to date. Only the sale in late 2021 or mid to late 2022 along with an occasional spike as activity confirms what is in the ground will bring us real value. No demand until that occurs, we wait!! Bottom line, presently there is no demand for this stock on the open market and that is on the back of current and historical leadership. Marc Brunner did great harm to the market believing in Falcon. Especially related to Hungary. Fortunately, POQ has repaired Brunner's structural catastrophes. I do believe this will be a winner. GLTA

https://www.lawinsider.com/contracts/60luOijBV2szJyxN5LATkj/rio-vista-energy-partners-lp/note-purchase-agreement/2008-04-15#npv10

“NPV10” means, with respect to any Proved Reserves expected to be produced from the Eligible Mortgaged Properties, the net present value of the future net revenues expected to accrue to Restricted Persons’ interests in such Reserves during the remaining expected economic lives of such Reserves, discounted at 10% per annum. Each calculation of such expected future net revenues shall be made as of the date requested in accordance with the then existing standards of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers, provided that in any event:

(Granted.....we aren't proven yet....but close)

Newto.....NPV-10 takes into account the future costs you describe. NPV-10 will be the industry model used to price a purchase. Here is a "potential" NPV-10 Calculation estimate based on the one contingent value we know........Valkerri B only.......based on the assignment of resources to Falcons piece of that pie.........Granted.......proven is what will be the real driver........
Per the 15 Feb 2017 Notice of Discovery Numbers for Middle Velkerri B Shale ONLY EP76, 98 & 117
Net Attributable to Falcon was 1.94 TCF Contingent at 29.43% working interest.
That net would now be Contingent of 1.49 TCF Contingent at 22.5% working interest.
Using industry standard valuation model of NPV-10 and well head conservative cost of $2.75 US here is where we should be if the world knew and/or cared.
Outstanding Shares: 981,847,425
1,490,000,000,000.00 TCF (contingent) = 1,490,000,000.00 BOE X $2.75 conservative well head cost/value = $4,097,500,000.00 US attributable to FOG
THE NPV-10 Value is then $409,750,000.00 US (Falcon Attributable) divided by issued outstanding shares…..981,847,425 = $0.42 / share

Some more supporting news via Empire....
https://mcusercontent.com/6c7d255d97b3dec4176e2a477/files/19ed0fb8-fbb0-4ac6-8d8c-a1c29fb412aa/Empire_receives_world_class_Carpentaria_1_lab_results_Energy_News_Bulletin.pdf

Thx Newto.......I wasn't aware Inpex had picked up that piece of the permit when it was relinquished by Falcon a while back. Learn something everyday.... :-)

Yes IT .....I get they are in a bit of a marketing mode but the other side of that is they have shareholders that are being kept informed as to status and plans for next steps. On page one of their presentation under the title 'Current Drilling Programs in the Beetaloo' they have a picture table that links the E&P entities to each License / Permit .....they.... through the color model show Inpex as EP117.....perhaps it is an error on their part or I misunderstood the color coordination....nevertheless it is printed as EP117 in their model.

Nice post VegasGal........it really is nice to see how Empire works to keep shareholders informed and with wonderful detail. I noticed within Empires informative info; and, perhaps I missed through other sources, that Inpex holds EP117. That is quite interesting in itself.

Newto, WW, and Bornto: I think you provide some great observations on a buyout potential except in Newt’s reference to FOG’s largest shareholder’s patience……POQ is sitting on a nice annuity for little workload and the others have historically deep pockets…no rush in those cases. But….one short window scenario to take Falcon out is the Origin acquisition of Falcon’s remaining equity through a stock/cash buy out or stock only buy as WW referenced. In my humble view the Origin buy is the likely shortest time window for acquisition …perhaps within 2021….just a hopefully optimistic guess!! But, a second potential near term option that may surface given the government’s support now; and, the early stages of proving that organics are spread across multiple horizons and across the vast acreage by multiple E&P entities, would be for a large group like Inpex to take out both Origin and Falcon’s piece of the large pie. A question to ponder….Could Falcon and Origin sale their rights to the permits with Aussie Govt approval vs. selling all or part of Falcon and/or all or part of Origin to an Inpex or Conoco etc.??? As we all know…anything is for sale at the right price!! True, we do not know commercial values yet, but demand will push the organics to the surface in time and I humbly believe that more info is known behind the scenes or these folks to include the Aussie govt would not be investing so hugely in development and infrastructure. Yes, this buy of both or the permit licensing would be discounted at this juncture but still likely a large multi-billion spend. We have to sit back and remember when fully commercial this will be a mult-multi-trillion revenue generator over many, many years. With trillions in profit as well……when commercial!! The big guys have to always have a plan for backfilling reserves over time as much of their value is based on reserves vs depletion of reserves. Something to consider!!!!

@Longknife........well stated, well stated.....we wait!! It will be all good in the long run......long it has been!!

https://mcusercontent.com/6c7d255d97b3dec4176e2a477/files/d815324c-f7b0-4266-b620-7d6fa4a176a3/Quarterly_Activities_Summary_DEC_2020_FINAL.01.pdf
Empire has posted their quarterly report and what is telling is their view of connecting the dots among the various exploration sites across the NT. There is much value in that approach. Additionally.....their leader tells the story in concise clarity. We will now likely have to wait months at this point to get clarity from our side.....lets hope not. The news is good....for our "birds" status.....hang tough and good luck to all. Maybe Origin will execute their deal in 2021 that many believe is already on the back of the napkin and we can win and smile on our way to the bank.

Sneaky:
I don't think anyone on this board doubts the engineering complexities on this well, especially given the cost.....Some posters present sound evidence and appear to have extensive knowledge of the industry. Admittedly, I am not one of those. The issue, and I agree with you that worthless info should not be presented, but, simple information such as direct and accurate timeline statements would go a long way in removing uncertainty among the holders of this stock. Here is a simple statement that would serve us all well if it came from our leadership POQ.....The equipment for the lift arrived on December 24 with the crews returning on January 1. The crews have commenced hydrogen lift protocol on January 2 and we should have results by January 9 if no issues are encountered. We look forward to providing additional information to the market when results are known. Boom.....with a simple and accurate statement like that we have a clear and precise picture of what is occurring in close to real time. POQ has indicated on numerous occasions he would be informative and fails on that mark time after time leading to unnecessary ownership discomfort. He certainly has time on his hands to sit and post a note or two.