Member Info for tnbird

Oilcountry.....I am with you on your view. I do think this is about to come to a close and won't be surprised if something is announced on December 10, if not then then soon after the first of the year. As you stated "Keeping the share price low will make any buyout offer look that much better" and, is in my humble opinion what is going on, especially if the deal is a stock purchase. Hugely beneficial to Origin if the FOG stock price is low. Unfortunately, like most of us long-term holders we have hoped for a large valuation based on the value of what is in the ground. I now agree with Newto that our max price at this point in time is likely a US $/share or less....sincerely hope I am wrong on the sale price......but a billion US$ is probably our best shot and that may be high.

Newto........Email the link to POQ with a little note.......hey, just across the way is this resource to step in rapidly for the coil tubing necessary for now rather than next April........... :-)

Well stated......Newto, well stated

https://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/SEAAOC.mp4

Orson. Your post are always appreciated. We thank you

DP....you wrote: "Silence from POQ maybe an indicator that everything is done with Origin and we are just waiting for the right time to disclose deal details, (staying silent is much better then saying too much) some will argue that we need to have complete picture before deal negotiated, but I do not think that is the case you can have deal completed with % and then it is just matter of plugging in the numbers which are calculated by industry standard methods."

I humbly agree with this possibility and think it quite likely.....we have to keep in mind that the folks would not be putting "billions" in play for transport infrastructure (pipeline etc.) if they didn't believe the geology was in place for this to be a commercial play. We also have to give some credence to the idea that these entities.....Santos.....Origin........Empire et. al. are likely more informed than we may know and are likely sharing data on the science on each level of the play. In fact, I suspect they are sharing internals with the Aussie gov to in turn encourage and provide basis for the government to also invest resources. This play is a huge economic base for not just the NT but the entirety of Aus. Coma's rumor a few weeks back may bare out to be true sooner than we have all expected......maybe it will be by April 2021?? If so....and a deal penciled in......it may in fact be presented at this years AGM.......it will have to be voted on by us all. POQ stated a year or so ago that it would take up to six months to close a deal......we may soon know.

Good to hear Oleo....Thanks for the info

Fleurs........your comment "a lowball Origin bid" could have some merit ....Let's hypothetically consider a what if?? And, look Back to Coma's rumor a couple of weeks back that Falcon would sale by April.....and the buyer is in fact Origin and it's a cash/stock or all stock transaction. If the Falcon shares are cheap then it would be beneficial to Origin as they would have to utilize and/or issue fewer shares of Origin stock if Falcon's base valuation is cheaper per share on the planned transaction date......i.e. perhaps some insider political pandering to make the transaction look better to us retail holders....crazy thought perhaps but makes some sense too!! Purely a speculative tin-hat view........

Well Said Newto

https://mcusercontent.com/6c7d255d97b3dec4176e2a477/files/c38fd922-f86c-42c4-8758-2d21c402a6ec/Quarterly_Activities_Summary_SEPT_2020_FINAL.01.pdf

No Body is interested.....even with all the positives rolling out......because this may now be the worse small cap entity on the planet when it comes to marketing what they hold, what we hold. For the price to be enhanced information must be put out to therefore create demand for said commodity. With the politics now less of an issue i.e. greenies pushed aside, the Aussie gov openly supporting the growth of the NT and other gas resources, and what we already know as contingent this stock has every reason to be on the radar of investors.......not to mention what is likely to soon be an add to in contingent resources. Moreover, the Aussie plans to extensively grow the NT economy de-risks to some degree the infrastructure cost concern. Come on POQ .......let's get to selling this baby on a more specific level........create some interest and therefore demand.

Buckeye. Very, very well stated.

Would be so awesome if Falcon and POQ could learn how to get in the information game.

Beetaloo
• Acquired additional 7.5% share in the joint venture from Falcon
Oil & Gas in exchange for increasing Falcon’s carry by $25
million over the coming years.......
Hmmm...."over the coming years" One has to ask the question........Is Falcon now planning to hang around, has the monetization plan and timeline now changed not because of Covid delays but to now not sale or are they just projecting the timeline is now years instead of a year or so....or is this now plural grammar maybe two years.............something to ponder?? I guess we likely won't now know until 2022 or 23.......heck, what's another couple of years :-)

Ya Prob....Perth
https://connect.slb.com/Locations/Schlumberger-Perth-Australia-6164.aspx

or

https://connect.slb.com/Locations/Cameron-Subsea-Kewdale-Australia-6105.aspx

"Hopefully Origin/Falcon will soon update their shareholders ...."

True that VegasGal..............time for some information on the Falcon/Origin plan moving forward..........Information is the right thing to do...........at least Empire is working to keep their shareholders INFORMED

Bottom Line..........It would be very, very nice if we could get some info from the mouth of this company's leadership as to plans moving forward regardless of the political issues in country. While Origin is the operator and all that good language and politically correct spin, as shareholders we deserve information, clear information, on details of next steps and a timeline for implementation. Yes, this is a long-term ride but that ride should include informative information on the plans moving forward to include company adjustments for the Covid-19 delays and strategy to work through Australian politics and the applicable economics to restart of exploration activities in one of the most rural areas on the planet..........

https://www.reserveourgas.com.au/how_would_a_gas_reservation_policy_work

Add some info to what can be a positive for the NT if managed well

Be Nice if FOG and Origin would post this type of movement on research actions..........Empire also just posted a nice resource analysis

Empire has submitted a COVID-19 Management Plan to the Northern Territory Government for
approval by the Chief Medical Officer. Once approved, the Plan would give Empire and its
employees and contractors exemptions to border restrictions to allow Empire employees and
contractors to resume activities in the field.

the important concepts. PV10 will be the basis for current future valuation. it is the industry standard.
PV10
According to Investopedia,
PV10 is the present value of estimated future oil and gas revenues, net of estimated direct expenses, discounted at an annual discount rate of 10%. This nomenclature is most commonly used in the energy industry, and is used to estimate the present value of a company’s proved oil and gas reserves.
Proved Reserves is a measurement of how much hydrocarbons can be recovered from the companies’ acreage with a reasonable amount of certainty. Typically this calculation is done on a per-well location basis and then added together.
So PV10 is a way to value the hydrocarbons that you control that are still in the field, based on the amount of reserves in place less the costs and expenses to develop those reserves (other company overhead is not figured into the PV10).
A strong PV10 is an indication that the company has assets that are (reasonably) accessible over the near term, which will generate future cash flow, and which will keep both the investors and the company in good stead.
The discount is in place to account for the fact that a dollar tomorrow will be worth less than a dollar today.
Let’s take a look at a few examples of PV10 out in the wild.