Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Well Stated Newto.....I think many of us "longs" have held this same concern for a long and lingering time
"It would be a bonus to see a true E&P company like Santos, Pioneer, or Chevron -- come in and take most of Origin's position off their hands. This way we could hopefully have a primarily E&P company driving this project forward with some real skill and improved timelines??"
The buyer is one thing but who is the seller..........the share's are coming from someone.......???
02-Feb-22 15:59:39 10.28 150,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 15.42k O
02-Feb-22 16:19:10 10.478 75,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 7,859 O
02-Feb-22 16:15:18 10.525 94,964 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 9,995 O
01-Feb-22 09:52:34 10.11 229,261 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 23.18k O
01-Feb-22 16:02:47 10.31 350,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 36.09k O
01-Feb-22 11:03:37 10.35 278,118 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 28.79k O
01-Feb-22 08:14:19 11.40 377,964 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 43.09k O
01-Feb-22 08:18:15 11.50 210,431 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 24.20k O
01-Feb-22 14:59:54 9.615 238,398 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 22.92k O
02-Feb-22 17:06:47 10.55 60,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 6,330 O
02-Feb-22 15:48:01 10.02 100,000 Unknown* 10.40 10.70 10.02k
To me the most telling bullet point is this:
Multiple upcoming news events to de-risk the play and drive it beyond appraisal •
The ending phrase of "drive it beyond appraisal" is most telling and valuable, especially since coming directly from the horses mouth.....The big question to this is the timeline........2022 or 2023??
Admittedly.....While perhaps overly optimistic we should look at bullet points 3 and 4 below to drive that optimism "the play is on" and "drive it beyond appraisal".........FOG's language to smile at......just saying..........At the end of the day and on a personal level I think we will realistically see between a $1.00 US to $4.00 US per share for FOG's piece of the pie. There is a lot of geology across the 4.6 Mil acres and organic horizons within this aerial extent that likely hold the same metrics to what is now already known. Exciting times indeed.........FINALLY :-)
Falcon’s Value Proposition 2022
• US$100m Market Cap at 7.5p, 1 million net acres, current value per acre of US$100
• Possible shale valuations: Exploration US$1,000->Appraisal US$4,000->Production US$12,000 (1)
• 5X increase in normalized flow rates at Amungee NW-1H – the play is on…
• Multiple upcoming news events to de-risk the play and drive it beyond appraisal
• Santos expected to fracture and flow test two 1,000m horizontal wells before year-end
• Major 2022 capex programs anticipated by all four operators in the Beetaloo
• 2022 activity could lead to a recategorization of Contingent Resources to Reserves
• Net Contingent Resources of 1.46 TCF – calculated only over 1/8 of Falcon’s acreage
• Prospect of Declaration of Commerciality in 2022
• Falcon remains “carried” as part of current A$264 million work program
(1) Possible shale valuations estimated from publicly available disclosures in the period from March 2018 to October 2021
• Falcon/Origin permits 4.6 Million Acres total aerial footprint
• FOG @ 22.5% = 1,035,000 Acres net attributable
• Amungee footprint is at 1/8 of the acreage which is equal to 575,000 Acres or net attributable to
FOG = to 129,375 Acres (Amungee Only)
So, using the published breakout and reference to US oil and gas acreage values in known transactions and referencing POQ’s statement that Amungee “could be” classified in the commercialization window 2022 and balance of acreage likely in the appraisal stage (yet to be classified commercial end of 2022) one can calculate a potential valuation proposition end of 2022 if all falls in line i.e. Santos/Tamboran, Empire & Origin see flow rates as a market of commercialization.
Falcon’s potential value End of 2022:
(1) Amungee *129,375Acres @ $4,000.00 US Appraisal = $517,500,000.00 US
*(Likely Transforming from Contingent to Reserves in 2022)
**Balance of Acres: 905,625Acres @ $1,000.00 US Exploration = $905,625,000.00 US
Value w Knowns: = $1,423,125,000.00 US
Share Value: = $1.45 US
** Potential to convert from exploration to appraisal valuation view from suitors for 905,625 Acres end of 2022 with various factors supported by additional work by Origin and information from the other Beetaloo players across the geographical horizons aerial extent.
(2) FOG Balance of Acres: 905,625 Acres @ $4,000.00 US Appraisal = $3,625,500,000.00 US
Value w Potential New Knowns:
$517,500,000.00 (Amungee) + 3,625,500,000.00 (Balance of Acreage) = $4,143,000,000.00 US
Share Value w Potential New Knowns: = $4.22 US
One has to consider : Would the Amungee Acres, once they’re classified as reserves, be valued at the production value rate of $12,000.00 US per acre?? Perhaps….
RTD.....I'm of the opinion that the exploration teams are sharing information. The reference to each other in various reporting(s) implies this is the case. Moreover, info sharing benefits the entirety of goals and target attainment for the Beetaloo across all teams. But....just an opinion view.
NPV-10 (Industry Standard Resource Valuation)
• 465TCF (Projected across all horizons as basis) Note: Probably Higher, figures used here well below 2015 February Gross Estimate Base across 4.6 million Gross Acres (Basis in 2015 was 496 TCF with various resources predicting more than 500 TCF with a 16% recovery factor)
• @16% Recoverable = 72.96 TCF (Conservation Base per Origin and Falcon February 2015)
• 22.5% Net Falcon or 16.416 TCF Net Falcon (Now)
• 16.416 TCF / 1000 BBoE or 16,416,000,000 BBoE Net FOG X well head estimated value of $3.75 (US) = $61,560,000,000 over life of the project or typical base of 30 years…..not considering unknown depletion rates so this is variable
• $61,560,000,000 NPV 10 applicable valuation rating or $6,156,000,000.00. NPV-10 takes into consideration cost to surface resource …..infrastructure etc.
• $6,156,000,000.00 / 981,487,425 shares issued not including options = $6.27/share could be a realistic value for future sale based on available industry standard calculation methods. Common sense (if applied) in the business world could imply that we should see any where from $3 to $5 US per share in a future sale when looking at the entirety of 4.6 Million Acres……..could be lower could be higher…..but this model of NPV-10 provides a reasonable base for comparison of possibility when looking at the entirety of the 4.6 million acres.
Applicable:
Amungee Only 2C Knowns Falcon Net NPV-10
• Middle Velkerri B Shale Pool 2C Contingent Gas Resource Estimates within EP76, EP98 and EP117 as of 2015 February as known basis.
• 1.46 TCF Net Attributable Falcon
• 1.46 TCF …….1.46 TCF / 1000BBoE = 1,460,000,000 equivalent x $3.75US well head surface value or $5,475,000,000 US considering NPV-10 current value based on known 2C based on Amungee applicable to existing permits per February 2015
• Current value using Amungee only applicable across identified permits per February 2015 basis our present value should be $547,500,000 US / 981,487,425 shares issued not including options or roughly $0.56 US per share....present value view
Summary: Granted…commercial prove up will be crucial to these numbers being real but one can see the huge potential that rest within Falcon as Origin and our neighbors Santos, Empire, etc. move forward
:-) Darnit........sadly.... but....yes...... a very funny accurate sarcastic point. Origin is a joke in itself when it comes E&P work much less clarity of information. I'm still wondering why POODS wanted POQ to "shut up" as well. Being quiet certainly can't help the cause :) Oh......I guess its the ole cliche' "silence is golden"........not working in this application
Given the abhorrent lack of clear and concise information delivery you may be on to what is the underlying truth......outside of their clear lack of capability......HMMM Falcon chose these folks.....$$$$........!!!! We will likely win, but the downside is with lack of info along the long and agonizing roller coaster ride
Newto. I hope you’re correct but politics tend to spread rapidly. https://amp.smh.com.au/national/australia-covid-live-updates-sydney-plunged-into-two-week-lockdown-as-cases-continue-to-grow-across-nsw-20210626-p584jg.html