RE: Absence of evidence26 Apr 2020 20:58
Quickdraw where are you getting those figures from? Worldometers shows approx 150,000 cases reported, by definition almost all of those being hospitalisations. Approx 20,000 deaths in hospital equates to 1 in 7.5, around 15% (not 96%). That figure will rise as a proportion of hospitalisations., but may in fact reduce as we get to grips with how to deal with this without palliative medication and resources are less stretched.
With the graph tailing off now, it's even if there were as many deaths in the next eight weeks as there have been so far (and I doubt that very much) the total would be under 40,000. You estimate 120,000 - why?
Sweden's death rate is not 69%, rather it is about 1 in 9 so far, let's say 11%.
Just curious to understand your calculations, not disputing the gravity of the situation.