Member Info for Tiptree

Valuefinder thanks. I was mainly in cash earlier this year (not due to COVID-19 but due to Brexit) and have only recently started to feed back in, probably too diverse already but happy to accept lower returns as a trade-off for not losing if the Index drops again once we all realise just how bad a hit the economy will continue to take.
Gilead make Remdesivir, mentioned by Bill Gates during his BBC interview yesterday. If I understood him correctly, he is already moving to fund the most promising ten therapeutic solutions ahead of a vaccine (faster), presumably through the Bill and Miranda Gates Foundation. The world will (or should) thank Bill Gates later.
Certainly you are right about getting out of most pharmas at the right time which may be sooner for some than for others. I also think that 'things are seldom either as good or as bad as they seem'.
Thanks again, appreciate the response.

Valuefinder - well said, most level-headed post I've seen on NCYT in a while. Would love to hear your views on some others in this category, such as Gilead Sciences, Avacta, Genedrive and others. Thanks.

Also on itv:
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-10/first-results-in-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-but-more-study-needed/

Bill Gates mentioned it by name during his BBC interview. Just maybe...

jonesrichard I think your maths are wrong, even if the sentiment isn't.

To be frank, I doubt any of us have any idea about SP in two weeks' time. For LTHs, it doesn't really matter much as all will be sitting on hefty profits and the upside is still considerable. If things did go seriously wrong, and it's hard to see how (careful!) most could jump ship and still be very happy.

Let's face it, there may never be a better to to take this on. Any downside from recent events has been more than built in to the SP. Borrowing has stabilised having gone down after 2008's peak. The pension deficit isn't a huge concern relative to the balance sheet. Things look more rather than less promising.
Food manufacturing as a sector is better protected than many other sectors at this time, provided foodservice is not a significant proportion of turnover. Exports may well have dried up or slowed significantly, having only recently returned to growth. What proportion of sales are exports? And what impact is current sales performance of Nissin branded products having?
New management making a difference? Who knows really but there's a good chance.
Is there more upside or downside from this point? I'd say upside, so any prospective purchaser had better be preparing the ground.
What's not to like?

Pity there hasn't been a COVID-19 update but fairly typical for PFD.
As their manufacturing sites are allowed to continue, turnover may not have been impacted. In terms of manufacturing, they will have need to introduce measures to ensure social distancing at work but in largely automated packing plants, that may not have been difficult.
Logistics has not been a particular issue in food supply chain, other than needing more drivers and lorries in many cases, to cover what for long-life products would be a short-term increase in demand, followed by a reduction. For short-life products, the recent increase in demand may have been a bonus in the sense that panic buying has been followed by food being thrown away.
There has been no need for producer-supported incentivised sales for a couple of months and may not be for some time to come. It's likely that just about every supermarket consumer offer is funded by the producer not the supermarket.
Sales to major retailers requires very little in terms of travel or contact, most being perfectly possible over the phone and with automated purchasing systems in place.
It's likely that for the time being at least, most major retailers will have enough on their hands without looking at whether to change suppliers or trying to drive down cost prices (I could be wrong!)
I'm not sure how deeply into foodservice supply PFD is - I suspect not much. For any food suppliers to hotels, restaurants and bars, this is a nightmare of gargantuan proportions.
I'm bound to have missed things but this paints a broad picture for food producers at this time. PFD may well be OK.

lamrich where did you see this please?

"They know or are very confident it will work because they have used it against so many other viruses and corona different strain,"

They showed a bit of kit labelled Genie II. It's from Optigene. Seems to be a small privater company with net assets around the £1.6m mark. Incorporated in 2008, apparently profitable but not filing full accounts as only a small business.

bigbench: depending where you search, it's possible to find a different and more likely slant on the 're-infected' reports. The likelihood is that due to testing inaccuracy, these are ongoing infections, not re-infections. Let's all hope so too!
This share has promise and as an investment, currently quite a lot more upside than down.

TedB - protocol doc here:
https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/recovery-protocol-v3-0-2020-04-07.pdf

It's going to be massive. Or not. Or maybe it won't change much. Think I'm onto a winner with my first ever prediction. What.Is. The. Point.

Henners can you save me a bit of time please? I've checked through what I think are all this morning's links but can't see the FinnCap reference. Is there a link - maybe I'm just being specially dumb today?
Interesting that one of the earlier links on here points to BAT claiming they could have a vaccine as early as June: that doesn't sit with all the other information we've had re length of time to get vaccine approved.
Thank you!

It's one of the drugs just agreed for 'compassionate use' in EU, alongside SNG001, the former being injected, the latter as I understand it inhaled.
Has anyone interested in SNG also done the research yet on the background to Remdesivir please?

But elsewhere, informed opinion suggest it has "no more than a 20% chance" of being effective. Some would take that under these circumstances.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-supersizes-remdesivir-trials-changes-primary-endpoint

Sharepad summary below, but big question is: would you swap NCYT for ODX now they've gone up 75% in an hour? I think Novacyt will be taken out, or become one of the major players in the future. Easy to say though.

Omega Diagnostics Group PLC provides in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) products for use in hospitals, blood banks, clinics and laboratories and specializes in the areas of allergy and autoimmune, food intolerance and infectious diseases. Omega has three segments: The Allergy and autoimmune division specialises in the research, development, production, and marketing of in-vitro allergy and autoimmune tests used by doctors to diagnose patients with allergies and autoimmune diseases; The Food intolerance division specialises in the research, development, and production of kits to aid the detection of immune reactions to food; and The Infectious disease division specialises in the research, development, production, and marketing of kits to aid the diagnosis of infectious diseases.

Omega Diagnostics Group PLC provides in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) products for use in hospitals, blood banks, clinics and laboratories and specializes in the areas of allergy and autoimmune, food intolerance and infectious diseases. Omega has three segments: The Allergy and autoimmune division specialises in the research, development, production, and marketing of in-vitro allergy and autoimmune tests used by doctors to diagnose patients with allergies and autoimmune diseases; The Food intolerance division specialises in the research, development, and production of kits to aid the detection of immune reactions to food; and The Infectious disease division specialises in the research, development, production, and marketing of kits to aid the diagnosis of infectious diseases.

As already noted, a company with a history of delivering. Good fundamentals too. Before today's announcement, Sharepad was suggesting 25P as an appropriate SP.

Some of us are arriving now. Looks interesting, even at 75% SP increase this morning.
Think this approach is one that is going to get things sorted medium-term.