Member Info for TinkerT

I should have said we will get uplift if investors are persuaded to have confidence in the Looney strategy OR we get a new strategy with or without Looney.
Tinker

Sigma, I think we all know the answer to your (probably rhetorical) question “Will buy backs produce uplift or not?” Answer: They will do NOTHING in the medium term. Uplift will come only if investors have confidence in the Looney transformation strategy.
Tinker

Thanks for replies. I too hope/suspect that there will be some uplift in the next year to 18 months and that 300 (where yield is, after all, a respectable 5%) is a level below which we cannot be for long. At 360 I’d be tempted to bail out. Likely to be spaghetti hoops instead of foie gras here at Tinker Towers for the foreseeable.
Tinker

Three months ago we were seeing buybacks at the 310 level. The optimists among us were hoping that this would be a springboard and that with higher than expected oil prices and economies returning to nearer normal we would be looking at 330+ by the next quarter. Now we have had a good Q2 performance and a (very modestly) increased divi yet the sp is again below 300. Barclays and a couple of others have confidence in Looney’s strategy but it seems a minority opinion.
I personally am sitting on a 36% capital loss and getting a personal yield of 3.15%. I am beginning to lose faith and am tempted to sell up, take the £25,000 hit and try to make it up elsewhere. Anybody else facing the same dilemma?
Tinker

Jam tart,
Your point is that some independent countries are prosperous. And.... what? The fact is that some aren’t. You seem to know a lot about my travel habits, based on no evidence whatsoever. Do you eat a lot of jam tarts?
Tinker

The gist of the article is that if you are good at one thing (in this case extracting, refining and distributing oil and gas) then you cannot be good at something else (renewables). This is self evident nonsense. It can only be motivated by malice.
Tinker

For me the encouraging thing is the announcement that divi is expected to grow annually by 4%. Will all you chaps who said that 5.25cents was fixed in stone for 5 years now eat you words?
Tinker.

I notice that the entire thread titled “Bl**dy” has been deleted. Not sure if it was the word “bloody” or the “racism” in the original comment about the “yanks”. Either way, we all need to be care or good discussion will be wiped in the interests of PCness.
TinkerT

Is there any significance in the decision to delay the 2Q results by a week? The company announced the change on 28 May. I’d like to imagine that with PoO at unexpectedly high levels they maybe thought that they might need an extra week to decide what to do with the extra cash. Any thoughts?
TinkerT

Hello everybody. I’ve followed this board for some time but never posted. Like many, I am one of the unlucky ones who bought in the days of £5+ and am sitting on a 40% loss of capital.

I really don’t understand the arithmetic of buy backs. As I understand it, the company buys back its own shares for circa £3 each so that it doesn’t have to pay an annual dividend of circa 15p. If that’s the case, doesn’t that mean that it takes around 20 years before the money saved equals the initial outlay? I am quite willing to believe that there might be tax advantages but can’t believe they would make an enormous difference. The effect on SP has to be minimal and short term (as we saw with the last round). Is it simply a cynical move by the board whose bonuses are in some way linked to the amount “returned to shareholders”?

I understand that if you’re going to do a buy back then you should do it when SP is low but do you do it in a “period of transition” when you are venturing into new areas of business and when you have already halved the dividend, hammering your long term investors? Surely buy backs are for when money is rolling in?

These are genuine questions. I just don’t see why the board are doing this. An explanation would be appreciated.

GLA

TinkerT