Member Info for TinkerT

Maybe I’m stupid but I thought share prices had more to do with economic prospects than geometry. I don’t remember what the “waves” were doing or where “the resistance lines crossed”in Feb and March 2020 when the SP dropped by 40%!
Tinker

I remember somebody on this board saying that a big proportion of BP shares are held by private investors rather than big institutions and that this accounts for the big and irrational swings in price. Can anybody tell me if this assertion about ownership is an accepted fact? (Genuine question.) If true, could it be a reason for the share price (irrationally) tracking oil price? (My assumption being that private investors are maybe prone to take a shorter term view than institutions.)
Tinker

Happy, I tend to agree. Like many, I’m a bit miffed at not selling some at the 343 spike and then buying back as the euphoria surrounding Brent and gas prices subsides but that’s the game isn’t it? I remain confident that after another set of good results on 2nd November and then again in Feb 2022 investors will be convinced that BP shares are worth £4+.
Tinker

Smithy,
That comment about the money saved on care costs when old people die because they can’t afford to pay for fuel is unworthy. I’d like to think you’re better than that.
TinkerT

Licker, I too am optimistic but would sound a word of caution re Goldman Sachs. They have been talking about a 50% uplift on BP for a long time and it hasn’t materialised (yet). In Jan 2020 they had a target price of 750p. OK, nobody could have predicted the effect of Covid but even so. We may have to wait some time before enough of the others are convinced that BP genuinely can generate profit at the same time as moving away from fossils. Anyway, nice to see the positive reaction today to the new woman’s appointment.
Tinker

Licker, I too am optimistic but would sound a word of caution re Goldman Sachs. They have been talking about a 50% uplift on BP for a long time and it hasn’t materialised (yet). In Jan 2020 they had a target price of 750p. OK, nobody could have predicted the effect of Covid but even so. We may have to wait some time before enough of the others are convinced that BP genuinely can generate profit at the same time as moving away from fossils. Anyway, nice to see the positive reaction today to the new woman’s appointment.
Tinker

Mark, I think you’ve made a good point; without the buybacks, the price would have dropped. I’d like to think that opinion is divided. Among the analysts, of the five most recent notes, Berenberg and Deutsche predict no significant change with HSBC and RBC saying a rise to high 300s, Barclays is way out ahead on 475. Seems to depend on whether people have confidence in Looney’s greening strategy. Significantly, nobody is predicting a marked fall below current levels. With profits and divis at current levels, any drop in sp would take the yield up beyond 6%. Surely people will pay at least £3 for a return of 16,17,18p a year?
Tinker

Mark and Zac,
I do sympathise with you and share your pain. I’m currently c£27,000 down on BP. I too fear negative news but one ground for hope is the yield. At the current lamentable share price, 15.6p is a return of 5.2%. That has to be attractive. The buybacks, too should support the price. That said, we are trading about 10p down from the level of the last range of buybacks three months ago so what do I know?!
Tinker

Zac, congratulations and commiserations in equal measure to you. Your pessimistic outlook proved accurate. Let’s hope (for all our sakes) that Spight or somebody else with a 330 ish guess is the winner next week. Lol
Tinker

Hi Zac,
I’m not clear on your challenge to the figures put forward by “meoryou”. He/she says the buybacks will retire 4% of shares each year whereas you say it’s likely to be only a tenth of that. The figures I’m working with are that $1.5 billion dollars spent on buybacks is £1.1 billion so 360million shares in a quarter, 1440 million in a year. That is 7.2% of the 20 billion issued shares. I take it the difference is dilution due to staff incentives and otherwise. Do you have much higher figures for the dilution or is it that you don’t think the $1.5 billion can be sustained.
Regards, Tinker

Thanks Mark. That makes perfect sense.
Tinker

Sorry if this has been raised before and I missed it:
As I understand it, the company is spending $1.5 B on buybacks this quarter. That is about £1.1 Billion. With shares around £3 that amounts to about 360 million shares. Somebody on this board explained that there is a limit of around 5 million that can be bought on any single day. That seems to be the amount bought in the daily announcement. Well, with about 60 trading days in the quarter, that would mean the company would be committed to buying the full 5 million quota every single day and even that would not quite reach the 360 million.
Have I got this wrong?
Tinker

Thanks for that, Spights. The thing that strikes me immediately is the wide discrepancy between the figure the analysts predicted and what actually happened. 2833 against 4045. Their estimate was 42% out. Accurate prediction in this game is well-nigh impossible.
Tinker

PeterH1,
I don’t think it’s “moronic” of ZacO to put the small weekly increase in the context of a significant fall over the last 18 months. I think it is a legitimate counterbalance to NSS’s more optimistic post. Can we have less gratuitous rudeness?
Tinker

Gavster, you say “would of”. I think you mean “would have”. Do you consider yourself one of the educated? Mmnnnn ......

Yes, and it isn’t just Cambridge University that is beholden to the Chinese. Glasgow University, another of the so-called elite Russell Group, gets 1500 students from China and this amounts to ONETHIRD of their total tuition fee income. Recently they were embarrassed to have to acknowledge links with a Chinese college linked to the suppression of Muslims in China. Won’t stop them taking the cash though. And I don’t suppose Wee Krankie will be losing any sleep over it. She can have free tuition for Scots, subsidised by oppression overseas.
Tinker

Yeah, well I know what I’ll be doing; I will boycott the Channel 4 coverage of the Paralympics in protest at their virtue signalling refusal of BP money. That’ll show those pesky lefties. (Lol)
Tinker

NSS,
Thank you for that. One of the good things about this board is the filter. If there is someone who really irritates you, you can just set things so you never need to read what they say again.
I can see why people use the board as a safety valve to sound off on bad days or to celebrate when things go well.
As far as rampers and dampers are concerned, do they really think there are enough people reading this to make any difference?
ATB,
Tinker

Thanks captaincad. That information about buyback limits is both informative and reassuring.
Tinker

Emcomg asks why the company isn’t buying back more shares during the dip. Perhaps they think it has potential to drop even further? Let’s hope not.
Tinker