Member Info for TinkerT

Meoryou,
It now seems we cannot sustain a share price above 380 unless Brent is above $110. With a break even point in the 40s, this is madness. I thought Friday’s panic was a one off and we’d see a steady recovery over this week and the weeks leading up to results day. Now I’m not so sure. At least, as you imply, we’re getting fantastic value on the buybacks.
Tinker

Unions were formed at the beginning of the Nineteenth Century when employers held all the cards. If workers didn’t like the pay or conditions they just had to put up with it. Unions balanced the power of the employer and cartels of employers with a cartel of employees. None of this applies today. If you don’t like being a railwayman then you can go and do another low skilled job like working on a check out. Nobody is forcing them to pick up £70k for holding down a lever.
It takes 6 or 7 years to qualify as a lawyer or an architect. How long (realistically) to be taught to hold down a lever?
Tinker

Thatcher dealt successfully with the miners. Dealing with this bunch of overpaid bullies is long overdue. We need reliable, affordable public transport. We cannot just give into ransom demands.
Tinker

Meoryou,
Yip. See what you mean.
T

Meoryou,

Like you, I’d like to see the divi upped but realistically it isn’t going to happen. Imagine the headlines and political reaction!

Whilst there is massive coverage of our quarterly profits, I don’t see the BBC anxious to tell the masses that shareholders have seen 15% wiped off the value of their savings in the last week.

Hopefully sanity will return and we’ll be back on track and in the 430s within weeks but I think that will be in spite of and not because of the divi policy.

Tinker

Schjmh,
I take your point and you’re probably right but the words “down to $111” should make us all think about what’s going on. Are we saying that our SP can only remain above 400p provided Brent stays above $120 dpb? There is madness here.
Tinker

Is there something else going on that we don’t know about? We took the Rosneft hit in our stride. WT was the same. Now a tiny interest rate increase has lost us 50p in three days.
Tinker

My clever top-up at 404p now looks extremely foolish. Never mind. Monday is another day.
Tinker

I am presuming that it’s the buyback programme that is keeping us “up” at 400p.
Tinker

Remember that in October 2020, we were trading in the mid 190s. That was a 65% fall from the 550s of June 2019. I think people may legitimately fear anything that threatens to jeopardise the recovery from Covid. I am prepared to take the risk but I do understand that there is a risk.
Tinker

I topped up ( again) at 404p. When I get worried, I remind myself that we were sub 400 as recently as 29th April. This nonsense cannot last.
Tinker

Bres,
I take your point about L&G but their SP has dropped more than 12% over the last year. Look at ours by comparison. We know that our profits are going into buybacks and green projects. L&G are getting jam today and losing capital, we (arguably) are investing for the future.
Tinker

Bres,
I wish I’d had your foresight to sell before today’s big drop but I’ve done the next best thing (?) and topped up at 404p. Usual panic. Usual over reaction. Usual opportunity to make something when the pendulum swings the other way.
Tinker

Meoryou,
I am no expert but the broker views seem to be very positive with Deutsche and Barclays both talking about 700p. The two things that worry me are that we seem to be very dependent on a very high oil price. Any slight dip seems to send SP down. The other is the dividend policy. That has to limit The SP of what has always been seen as an income share. So...... I personally would be tempted to sell about half my holding at my break even point. All just guesswork really.
GL
Tinker

Thanks Paul,
No offence taken. My post was just intended to remind folks that though we’ve recovered well from the lows of the last two years, we’re still a way behind where we were.
GLA
Tinker

Paul,
You’ve done really well and good luck for the future. People who’ve held since before the “panic-demic” were paying 500p+ and are sitting on 15-20% capital losses and 50% reduction of income. Not such a rosy picture but that’s just our bad luck.
Tinker

Chandley, I share your hatred of the “pandering short sighted mugs”. Trouble is that if enough of us hadn’t voted for them we’d have Corbyn in Downing Street. Damned if you do...
Tinker

Bernie described BP as a “cash machine”. Pity he handed over the debit card to Sunak and also told him the PIN.
Tinker

I’m waiting in trepidation for opening today, expecting WT to take its toll. But could it be already priced in? I don’t know.
I was one of the idiots who said no Conservative government under Boris would contemplate a policy of punishing business for having the audacity to mak e profits. Seems I was wrong. It’s “tax and spend” under the Tories just as under Labour.
Covid, Rosneft, Cop22, Looney’s dividend policy AND a windfall tax!BP must be pretty strong to cope with all that.
Tinker

Maybe what we really need is a footballer (preferably from a minority group) to say that his mother struggled to feed him/her and the only thing that got them through was greeting the quarterly dividends from BP or Shell.
Policy is not based on rational argument or fairness. It’s all sound bites and slogans these days. Init?
Tinker