Member Info for TinkerT

Let joy be unconfined!
Tinker

Good point Chandley about Dianne Abbot. You skirted round it. Nobody else will say it out loud but I will. She is unsackable because she is black and female. I’ll probably get banned from the site now.
Tinker.

We’re threatening 400p (again). It might not be any better than we were 4 weeks ago but it’s nearly 40p better than a fortnight ago. Maybe that tailwind (?) has finally arrived.
Tinker

Realist,
I’m not clear on what you find objectionable in Magic’s figures. The yields he quotes are straight from the company’s own guidance of 31.5 p per share this year, increasing in low single digit percentages. These are based, as he says on SP remaining c 400p. If the price target of 480 is reached then obviously yield would drop to about 6.5%. The income decline he suggests is hardly optimistic. I just don’t see why you thought it necessary to dismiss his reasoned post out of hand.
Tinker

Picstloup is correct. The media have it in for oil companies anyway. They ignore any sacrifices we make, any commitment to less profitable renewables, anything positive. BP’s relinquishing it’s assets in Russia got barely a mention. We’re damned anyway as far as they are concerned so we might as well be damned and have some money in our pockets.
Tinker

That should be “bite the bullet” of course.
Tinker.

I’ve a small holding in Shell and a much bigger one in BP. We’ve got the same problem. Yesterday I posted on the BP site saying there was an analogy with a fruit machine. When you put in your money and pull the handle and get a cherry, an orange and a lemon then you can’t expect a payout BUT when you get jackpot, jackpot and jackpot and STILL don’t get a payout then you realise there is something wrong with the machine and move on. That is the trouble here. No level of profit seems adequate to boost the divi. Investors like me will hold because our entry point was too high or bight the bullet and take the loss. Very few will increase their holding. Those that do must be prepared for a long wait till buybacks have an effect.
Tinker

Zac,
That’s a really useful site. Thanks
Tinker

Meoryou,
Those are my thoughts too.
I think I’ve used the analogy of the fruit machine on a previous occasion. When you put your money in, pull the handle and get a cherry, a lemon and an orange then you don’t complain when there is no payout. BUT when you get jackpot, jackpot and jackpot and there is STILL no payout then you realise there is something wrong with the machine and take your money elsewhere.
This, I think is what is happening with us and Shell. No level of profit seems good enough to justify a divi increase and the benefit of the buybacks (at the moment anyway) is pretty short-lived. So you either hold indefinitely because your entry point was too high and you cannot stomach the loss or you take the hit. What you don’t do is increase your holding unless you are prepared for a long wait for any meaningful return.
Tinker

I spoke too soon. Shell’s gains have fizzled away. So the 11.5 billion profit was priced in?
Tinker

Chandley,
My only surprise is that Shell isn’t down too. It is clear that Shell’s board think shareholders can be palmed off with jam tomorrow. We’ll probably be the same.
Tinker

Jeffrey,
I actually expected Shell’s sp to fall today on the announcement of no divi increase. I’m glad to be wrong. If we follow suit then the only uplift for us will be the temporary effect of an increased volume of buybacks.
Tinker

Thanks for the good wishes, Zac.
Meoryou, yes, ANY increase in divi would be welcome. Anything to show that the 2020 statement is not set in stone would give hope of further increases and maybe produce a bit of uplift.
If the media is going to characterise us as “fat cats” then the least the BoD can do is give us something to make us purr!
Tinker

Zac,
I think the only “catalyst on the horizon” to boost SP is the very temporary effect of the high volume buybacks around results day that Meoryou has pointed out. I am hoping that following August 2nd, that will bring us up to the 420s. Like many, I have held since pre pandemic days and my average is 480p. I think I will just have to take the hit and if my losses can be down to 60p a share (about£10,000) then I’ll get out. Short of restoring the divi, I don’t see any improvement till 2025.
It shouldn’t be like this.
Tinker

Trotsky,
Sorry! That was a major typo mistake. Aviva (as you say) was actually in the THREE eighties not the TWO eighties! (I was looking at both BP and Aviva and typed the BP figure while thinking the AV. one.) doh!
My point (which I maintain) was that AV hasn’t changed much in a year. Obviously if it had been the figure I quoted it would have been a substantial increase. Sorry again for having misled everybody and thanks Trotsky for pointing it out.
Tinker

Allatsea,
I’m afraid I don’t have any answers to your question about future prospects but I share your puzzlement that charts are showing a 22% drop from this time last year. For the record, we closed at 289.7 on 21st July last year, a few pence below yesterday’s figure. The return of capital shenanigans did not lose us money even if we didn’t gain anything by it. Basically, our capital is worth nearly the same as it was last year and we are getting just over 30p a share in divi. The drop from 440p in late May is disappointing but I am not feeling particularly hard done by here.
Tinker

Yesterday Brent dropped about 2%. Predictably, we and Shell were both down. It becomes increasingly and depressingly likely that we are just going to track poo. This is bearable at $100+ but won’t be at $60. That said, as recently as 8th June, we wee at 451p. Who knows!
Tinker

Buybacks MUST have an effect on SP eventually. Think about it: if the company buys back a net 6% of shares every year and there is no effect on SP then it could pursue that policy indefinitely. After 16 years there would be only one share left. That would still be trading at around 400p but would represent the total value of the company. As I won’t sell, that share will be mine. I would then wind up the company and walk off with the whole £80 billion!!
In reality, the reduced number of shares means each share represents a bigger proportion of the book value. The markets take time to recognise what is happening but, over time, the book value will have an influence on SP.
Tinker

Try using the London Stock Exchange site. It is 15 mins behind real-time but seems to be accurate.
Tinker

Slater,
You are spot on re the housing market. You can pay 2.39% on your tracker mortgage when general inflation is nearing 10%. No wonder that house price inflation is well into double figures.
Tinker.