Member Info for TinkerT

17th is Xd date so that’s why he’s flagged it up.
T

Yes rjb, a 1p rise is certainly a good indication of a 5% drop. Still, early days, you could be right. Or not.
Tinker

The Financial Calendar says results day is 8th Feb. I have no idea where people are getting tomorrow as results day. Has there been a change? Some special announcement?
Tinker

Bumble,
That’s an interesting point you make about Cheesy maybe being an alias for another poster. The same thought occurred to me. S/he began posting just a couple of days ago with wild predictions of imminent fall. All quite the opposite of Caitlin’s trademark, “booooooooooom!” Probably the best plan is just to filter them out.
Tinker

Oh dear! Not only is Boris going to steal all our profits in a windfall tax but Putin is going to steal30% of our production.
GOM was a cakewalk compared to this.
Woe. Woe. Thrice Woe!
On the other hand, maybe it won’t happen.
Tinker

Stock ready,
I agree. Can everybody just remember “Omicron Day”. It was 26thNovember and we dropped from 344.75 to 317.65 in a day. Exactly one week later we closed at340.85. All panic. No substance.
Tinker

That’s “NY” not”my”.
T

Any ideas why we’re down 7p since my opened?
Tinker

A few people have mentioned 2nd Feb as results day. Financial Calendar says it’s the 8th so we have to be patient for a bit longer.
Tinker

Aviduser,
I think you got a date a bit wrong. We were in the mid 500s in July 2019. The peak was in 2018. Was that what you meant?
Tinker

This is not BP related but I noticed the LSE trading site was frozen at the previous day’s values for a whole day earlier this week. Can anyone say whether it was still possible to trade on that platform on that day. Didn’t affect me this time as I am holding anyway but a bit worrying for the future.
Tinker

Stockready,
I am with you on this one and holding firm. In the past, I’ve tried to guess day-to-day fluctuations, trading about 10% of my holding each time. Just now I’d be scared to sell any for fear of missing out on likely big gains.
As I’ve said before, the only possible drag I see is the divi.
Tinker

Surely windfall taxing is unlikely under a Conservative government. I’m just glad the country opted to end CORBYN emissions in Dec 2019. (Tee hee)
Tinker

Stockready,
A belated thanks for your reply. Funny, isn’t it, that people usually talk about “market correction” in a negative way. I’d like to think that what we saw yesterday was the beginning of a correction upwards. BP is not alone in being seriously undervalued.
Tinker

Stockready,
You make a good point about the brokers’ notes with their 500+ target prices. I too am hopeful of significant recovery this year. The only thing I think will hold it back is the divi policy. Poring money into buybacks has long term benefits for shareholders but gives us nothing short term. Do you think that the BoD will increase divi or do you think that new investors will be happy to pay £4+,£5+ with a sub 4% yield in the hope of future capital growth? Genuine question.
Tinker

Only cloud on the horizon is the excellent results which will be announced in early Feb. The massive profits will obviously send the SP back to sub 300. (Only kidding.)

For me, today’s boom, though welcome, is not the best part of the story. The analysts are unanimous in predicting uplift with the least optimistic setting a target of 388. Though I understand the temptation, I think anybody selling now is going to miss out big time.

Tinker

Hello Everybody,
2021 has brought us a lot more ups than downs. We closed 31 Dec 2020 at 254.8. Today’s 330.3 is nearly 30% up on that. If 2022 continues the recovery then by this time next year we should be smiling.
Thanks to the posters who’ve kept us going through the bad days, reminding us all that longer term BP has real prospects.
All the best to all.
Tinker

Me too, too.
It’s my view that the BoD is more than happy with the current low SP as it enables the buybacks at an affordable level. Looney is in his early 50s and sees a transition extending over the next ten years. He’ll be hoping that it will bear fruit in time for his retirement. That’s great if you’ve got ten years to sit and see things out. If you haven’t (and I don’t) then it’ll be a case of bailing out when things are a little less desperate than at present.
Being down 27p since the eve of the last set of good results was announced is NOT a good position.
Tinker

Mark and Meoryou,
We’re obviously singing from the same hymn sheet. I am not happy at the moment but, for the reasons both of you state, not despairing.
Mark, your excellent point about the investment capital needed for green projects is exactly the one that has been aired over the last fortnight against the (silly) suggestion to break up RDS.
Emotive, anti-rational, virtue-signalling selling will exhaust itself eventually. Also, I’d like to think that the folk who bought at sub 200 would still be holding. They may have made capital gains of 75% but holding will give them an 8% yield on their investment.
Anyway, a good weekend to all.
Tinker

Mark,

That is exactly my worry. If the company wasn’t buying 8.5 million shares a day then who would be taking up the slack? Answer: nobody else would be paying 340ish and the SP would be down at a level that reflected a 16p a year return on capital with attendant risk of capital loss.

There are two ways of looking at this. We can either rejoice that the buybacks are at least supporting the SP and that the company is not having to pay 500p a share which would have been the case 2 years ago. The other way is to say that if we didn’t have buybacks and instead the divi were increased then we wouldn’t need buybacks to support the SP as SP would rise as new investors would be happy to pay more for a higher return.

I console myself that the company is (at the moment) cash rich and that the buyback money isn’t literally being thrown away. Buybacks do create the possibility for divi increase in future but it is a very long term strategy. Meantime, those of us who paid £5+ and whose yield (as a proportion of our original outlay) is just about 3% just have to be patient and hope things will turn round.

Tinker