Member Info for TinkerT

The silver lining in our (temporary) SP drop is that the board can conclude last quarter’s buybacks at less cost.
And, yes Mark, Brent, Cop, patience and Q4 are all legitimate topics to speculate about. Whingeing about the obvious is, for me, one of the main attractions of this chat room!
Tinker

Mrlolol, Sorry, I didn’t make myself clear. When I said “short term people” I didn’t mean day traders. I meant people who are not here for the long haul, say 3-5 years plus. In my view, it’ll take that time to get real rewards here.
Regards, Tinker

Of course the SP is falling. NO DIVI increase. Why would short term people want shares in a money printing factory if the management said the shareholders wouldn’t get their hands on the money?
Let’s hope long term considerations will prevail and our SP will hold up next week.
Tinker

I can understand people’s frustration. Sometimes BP seems like a one-armed-bandit aka fruit machine. You put your money in. You pull the handle. It comes up three cherries in a line. You think you are in for the jackpot. But instead of the tinkle of cash all you get is a message saying your winnings have been used to fund the purchase of another fruit machine.
Tinker

Yes. They have posted excellent results BUT have rewarded shareholders with no increase in dividend. Instead, a commitment to buy backs. Where have we heard that before?
If BP follows suit then next Tuesday will be the day to top up when the price dips by a similar 3.5% to less than 340p. Surely not!
Tinker

The charts show that over the last 5 years, BP and Shell tracked each other pretty closely. That is until last Autumn. Since then, a gap has opened up. BP’s SP is down 19% on 5 years ago but RDS only 12%. The odd thing is that yield is the other way round. BP is currently paying 4.4% with Shell (based on their latest quarter x4) at only 3.9%.
Any suggestions as to why this is the case?
Tinker

Yes Gary and Jakers. The worlds leaders are coming to Glasgow in planes not in sailing ships. I understand the Glasgow bin men are threatening to strike during the conference to draw attention to the vital nature of their work. Wouldn’t it be fitting for the oil producers of the world to stop production and distribution for a token period, see prices rocket and economies crippled and really bring home to people how dependent they are on us? It’s not a serious suggestion. We’re all allowed to dream....
Tinker

Dicklaw, you’re right about the 4% a year but that only brings us up (after 5 years) to 60% of what we used to get. 4% of the current 50% is only 2% a year of the pre-Looney dividend. My point is that nobody will be enticed into paying more than £4 unless there is a good prospect of capital growth based on future earnings. I personally think there are good prospects but others have to be convinced.
Tinker

Thanks Zac and JSSR. Between you you’ve summed up the whole issue. The current high oil price is generating money in the bank. That’s great so far as it goes. But investors want and need either or both of (one) a significant increase in dividend or (two) confidence in the long term profitability of renewables. 16p a year will not entice people to pay more than £4 if they aren’t convinced that their capital is safe(ish).
Of course, from the bod’s point of view, a rise in SP at the moment is not desirable. Obviously they’d rather do buybacks at £3.60 than £4.50. So next Tuesday is maybe a bit early for any jam.
Tinker

Zac,
Thanks for a bit of reality. I take on board stockready’s assessment of the effect of oil price and am myself generally optimistic about prospects. But I think we have to remember that two years ago people were paying £5 for a share returning 32p a year. We are currently getting 16p a year. I think we’ll get back to £5 and beyond but only after a succession of good quarterly results and an indication from the board that the divi increase will not be restricted to the 4% in the current plan. Hopefully, 2nd Nov will be a big step in that direction.
Tinker

I agree. Barclays have always said that the greening strategy does not preclude a return to higher divis. The 6 most recent broker targets average 420 and 440 if you knock out the most out-of-date one. Patience will be rewarded.
Tinker

That’s a significant change. Berenberg have left the doubters and joined Barclays and the others who have confidence in Looney. Target up from 310 to 425. (Though it’s fair to say Berenberg are just catching up with reality.)
Tinker

Yes Thronegames, I’ve noticed this board has turned uncharacteristically venomous in the past few days. Let’s hope we can all be a bit nicer to each other.
Tinker

David,
I’m no expert but could it be that the buyback limit is currently 360? That would support the price in the 355 to 360 area but switch off when 360 was reached. Just a thought.
Tinker

I stupidly sold (some) when I saw it begin to totter this morning. My long term view kicked in and I bought them back. OK, I’m down commission and stamp duty but I won’t remember that in 6 months time when we’re at 420+
Tinker

Yes Happy. It’s looking good. I remember some talk about a week ago of some resistance at 350. Well 360 seems to have gone without a struggle. One fear I have is that even fantastic figures on 2nd Nov, if not accompanied with another shift in the divi policy might bring disappointment and some reversal of recent gains. Here’s hoping that won’t happen.
Tinker

Correction. We are EIGHTY PER CENT beer than Oct last year!
Tinker

Pasty,
Hi. Point taken but we’ve got to remember where we’ve been. 28th Oct last year closed at 193.44p. Today’s price is 60% better than that. I know oil price has recovered spectacularly but that’s not the full story. We’re heading in the right direction. Maybe a bit more patience is required.
Tinker

Invstrat, Yip, acquisitions and banging the green drum might deflect some hostile attention. No point at all in just reminding people that we shouldered a $7billion rc loss in q2 2020. Politicians (and they are ALL opportunists) have got short memories.
Tinker

Updownflat, I sincerely hope you’re right but we wouldn’t have expected a Tory government to close down the economy for over a year and pay the wages of millions of people forced to sit at home watching Bargain Hunt on telly. They’re raising NI contributions and other taxes so an excess profits tax is not unthinkable.
Tinker