Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I sold out today. It's clear that the company has almost abandoned the idea of mining lithium, and that there are many problems with the existing tantalite mine (of which, I'm guessing, lack of water is the most critical). Luckily, I banked some profits in the spring, so my loss is tolerable. I can't say what I think of Giles Clarke here - it would most definitely breach "community guidelines". But I hope never to have dealings with another company that treats is shareholders - that is, its owners - with such total contempt. Good luck to all.

Hi Kiwi! I'd guess the next actual "news" here will be concerned with dotting the "i"s and crossing the "t"s of the Omani financing deal. The results of the summer exploration campaign should also be coming fairly soon. IMO, the share price is a very good buy-in price right now.

If anybody is interested in organising an EGM and putting an end to this insulting farce, please reply below with a rough indication of shareholding. Key demands would be removal of Giles Clarke and Nick Harrison as directors and full disclosure of state of company's business. FWIW, I own about 0.1% of the shares here.

Be very careful with all assumptions with this share, however reasonable they seem. We've been caught once already...

To say that 4 tonnes has been shipped is a dangerous assumption. All we actually know is that two shipments have now been made, the first of which was 1 tonne. In short, we shareholders are indeed mushrooms - kept in the dark by the BoD and fed shit. God only knows what is really going on in Namibia. It's enough to make me buy a plane ticket and go and see for myself.

Donkeys don't cry, they bray. What was that about language?

I enjoyed reading today's update. I'm particularly happy about the visit of local schoolchildren to the mine, and I hope it will encourage them to study science and engineering. But now can we have a proper RNS, with production figures, sales details, dates, numbers, and hard information about the future development of the mine? After all, we shareholders only own this company...

More round figure buying - now at least 1,000,000 for the day. I'd guess the same buyer, but not sure, of course...

More round figure buying - now at least 1,000,000 for the day. I'd guess the same buyer, but not sure, of course...

2 x 350,000 share buys just passed through. An institution, I'd guess. I hope Berkeley won't turn into another company where PIs do the hard risky investment yards, but then they get bored and they sell out just as the mine is approaching production and profitability, leaving big institutions to reap most of the rewards.

This summer's exploration results should be about due; so in the next few weeks. There should also be various bits of news about the formalisation of the Omani deal, and news about the appointment of contractors to build the plant at Retortillo. For myself, I'm very surprised this share hasn't bounced higher after the financing news. Maybe it will take some movement in the uranium price to start off a serious rally. Certainly, on fundamentals this is seriously undervalued right now. Finally, NexGen have just published their Preliminary Economic Assessment for their Arrow deposit in Canada (link on u3o8.biz). It makes interesting reading both in itself, and as a read across for Berkeley, which is of course several years ahead of NexGen. NexGen base their PEA on a price expectation of $50 per lb. Brokers Cantor Fitzgerald are still saying $80 per lb. All good!

Euratom will approve the Omani offtake deal, of course. They've got no reason to refuse. I just hope they do it reasonably quickly.

Horrible RNS this morning - the assumption must be that the talks with the government are not going well.

Hi 162! Just to say thanks for the blog, an excellent and informative read. I am not exactly short of BKY shares right now, but given the fundamentals and the newly derisked financing, it may be time to buy a few more.

Hi Red Lee, can I also say thanks for sharing your analysis. I did my own very rough calculation based on a P/E of 5 yesterday, using very pessimistic parameters, and came up with a minimum value of about 125p per share. Short of a major disaster in the industry (e.g. a new Fukushima or Chernobyl), I consider that a floor. Since the SP is only 52 at the moment, I didn't bother calculating upsides, but obviously new U3O8 discoveries and/or a better uranium price would improve the situation substantially. In short, IMHO, BKY is simply a strong buy.

My guess... If there is a deal I can imagine the ACA SP getting back to 350p - not higher, as there will be new taxes and obligations to meet as part of the inevitable compromise, and also the market will not trust the Tanzanian government for years to come. If there is no deal, then ACA is nearly worthless, of course. Red or black, it's your choice!

BTW, i fully agree that the Oman sovereign investment fund have played a blinder here. I'm so impressed I'm actually going to research other companies they've invested in now (e.g. Kenmare pigments).

OK, this is my take on BKY. After yesterday's excellent news we can be confident that the Salamanca mine will actually be built. So, my long term target price for these shares is 5 pounds (500p) in 2021. Obviously there will be ups and downs along the way, but these factors will cause the share price to rerate in due course: a) mine completion and first production; b) further uranium discoveries a la zona 7; uranium price increases (which will come). So for once I'm going to resist the temptation to trade, and just hold these shares long term.

But BKY already have an off take deal at $43 per pound, so turnover will be a great deal more than that. And that's even if the uranium price doesn't increase, as almost all analysts think that it will.

I'd seriously suggest that there is very little true value in AAU; only a lot of hype to blow up the share bubble for the next placing. If you want a punt on a junior gold miner you'd do far better with HUM (of course) or CNR (or indeed many other companies). These are companies with honest and competent BoDs and genuine mining prospects.