Member Info for TigerByTheTail

As somebody who has shorted AIM shares in his time, I'd say this: 1. Basically, you're right. 2. Actually, technically, it usually can be done, even with microcaps. But it's very expensive, and overvalued AIM shares have a bad habit of staying irrational longer than any shorter finds comfortable. Once upon a time I thought the easiest way to make money on this market would be to find some pumped up garbage and to short it. Certainly, there is plenty of overvalued garbage out there, but actually making money out of shorting it turned out to be a lot harder than I imagined. BTW - I DO NOT CONSIDER BCN GARBAGE - FAR FROM IT!

My guess is that you're guess is about right, but time will tell. "Official" explanation obviously absurd. I'm wondering how long the Nomad is going to put up with this disreputable farce before resigning; it's got to be coming.

The trouble is, putting the worst possible interpretation on the company's words and actions, and then sprinkling a little extra pessimism on top, normally means you come close to foreseeing the awfulness that is KENV. Today's RNS is between horrible and laughable. Obviously, we are looking at accounting irregularities (minimum), possibly at CEO departure and new cash raise for a mine which likely continues to be loss-making.

Hi Otho! Many thanks for posting this article. Also, thanks for posting your fascinating analysis of HUM yesterday on that board.

Hi Rosewall! I do - unfortunately or fortunately - know a great deal about BMR. Essentially, BMR control a potentially very valuable asset: the spoils at Kabwe. However, in the past BMR management has been almost comically inept and often deceitful - even by AIM standards they have been woeful. But, perhaps the past doesn't matter now. I'm waiting for the confirmation RNS that the new shares have been issued, but once they are, JLP will have a 29% stake in BMR and an executive seat on the board. Given that the existing directors of BMR barely own any shares in BMR, and that the rest of the shareholders are entirely PIs and hopelessly fragmented, that means that JLP will effectively own a controlling stake in BMR. (And, in the podcast yesterday, Leon said he would head up the mooted JV). So the fate of the project is now really in JLP's hands; which is a very good thing for all involved. All this does raise one more question as well. Given that Kabwe can be an almost ridiculously lucrative venture, will JLP move to make a takeover offer for the whole of BMR in the next few weeks? If they could finance such an offer (either with cash or with their own shares) it would make a lot of sense, at least to me.

I've searched for news of the petro yuan's launch this morning as well, and failed to find anything. Still not sure if this is something that is going to happen, or just an illusion.

So, we will receive a quarterly report on Q1 in April, which should allow us to gauge the basic profitability of the operation. We will also receive the first results from the drilling campaign in April, which could be very interesting indeed. But, does anybody know if we are due to receive any news at all before then?

IMO, it's a classic case of "melt-up" before a coming "melt-down". The bull market has now entered its final stages of irrational exuberance before it suddenly trips up and falls flat on its face.

I don't know if you've noticed, but THEY CAN'T - the share is still suspended. I don't know what is going on here, but it's more than a SNAFU down at the accountants, that's for sure. Also, believing Giles Clarke is not always good for your wealth...

Perhaps not, but (IMO) take the line of research that Lockheed Martin (and others) are following very seriously. I'm more and more confident engineered electrolytes are the way forward for flow batteries, and not vanadium.

The newspapers are trailing the possible break-out of a U.S. / China trade war later this week. I'm not sure I quite believe it, but if it did happen, what would that do to the prices of rare earths? Suddenly, RBW would be one of the very few non-Chinese producers of a vital strategic resource...

Hi! I can recommend AJ Bell. Never had any problems and very quick payment of dividends.

Hi ItsADuster! A price of $12.16 per kg for RBW's basket of rare earths was actually quoted in the December placing RNS, so that would imply raw revenues of around $60m per year at 5,000 tonnes run rate. But that doesn't allow for the thyssenkrupp discount, which I believe is no less than 70% (yes?), so adjusted for that, it's about $18m per year. No info on costs, but considering the extraction methods involved, they simply must be low. The exploration upside is fascinating here. Very much looking forward to the drill results in April to see if my geological hypothesis is right! (BTW, not sure who you meant by "the usual suspects", but I'm in Hummingbird, too!)

Not quite sure I get your logic there - or, rather, perhaps it's not that simple. Yes, mcap here 45m compared to HUM's mcap of 130m (approx.). So, yes, per target ounce of gold production cheaper here. But what about AISC (a low $695 at HUM)? And risk factors? And company debts and cash in hand? Need to research more to make true comparison. And, yes, HUM is cheap currently due to an ii selling...

I don't know much about AAZ, and I'm curious and I'll do some research this weekend. But first I need to comment on your assertion about Hummingbird Resources (HUM). - First gold pour occurred (on time and on budget) in December, and the mine is currently ramping up. In its first year of full operation it will throw off around $80m of free cash flow. HUM's current market cap is around 130m quid. I.e. HUM will generate more than 40% of its current market capitalisation as free cash flow in its first year! Normally, 10% FCF generation is considered excellent for a company. How can you possibly call that priced in to the current HUM share price???

To be fair, Uncertain is only turning Trump's own word back on him. Have you read this morning's news? (But, yes, I agree that Americans (in general) are far better people than their racist and psychologically damaged President.)

I'd just like to add my thanks and best wishes to Siko. All the best!

Just to add my pennyworth's... 1. The BoD own almost 40% of the company's shares, so it's rather hard to argue they don't have faith in the company. And the CEO bought more shares on the open market last month! 2. In general, yes, we are operating on faith. RBW haven't published a JORC estimate or a feasibility study; instead they've just barrelled straight into production. All in all, I'm comfortable with this situation, but I can understand why others might not be. 3. Finally, it's possible that the exploration upside is very large indeed. The geology of this deposit is truly intriguing.

Today's RNS makes excellent reading - , three shipments now made, target production increased to 6,000 tpa, exploration drilling beginning with first results due in April, and company will voluntarily publish quarterly results. I still worry about country risk, but management here very impressive.

I'll sign off here as well for now. Before I go, I'd like to say that I wish I'd paid more attention to RBR's posts a few months back - it would have saved me a fair amount of money. I also regard a new placing as inevitable, though I'm going for late January. I imagine KENV will make some attempt to pump their shares before then, though I don't know how they'll do that. Anyway, GLA.