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But, IF (note, if) BMR lose the Kabwe mining licence for good, then what happens? Surely, the processing plant doesn't get built, so there is nowhere to process the Star Zinc ore. So owning Star Zinc becomes kind of pointless, no?

But, surely, BMR also own the real estate (the land, the buildings) of Kabwe, separately from the mining licence? So this idea of just cutting them out of the deal doesn't work (much as though I'd like it to). All in all, it seems to me that if you sleep with dogs you get fleas. And JLP need a good delousing after trying to do business with BMR.

Then why did BMR suspend their own shares?!? I don't think that interpretation can be correct.

See BMR board. BMR shares suspended. Mining licence for Kabwe suspended by Zambian authorities.

Any money BMR's news as a big ugly surprise to JLP's management. I'd presume that the deal is off.

It seems that BMR have just had their mining licence for Kabwe cancelled - their shares are now suspended. See two RNSs just issued by BMR...

Any loose float here gets hoovered up by a big round number buyer at 14.50 - this has been going on for some time now, usually once a day. Just saying...

Beware of RH69. He's responsible for a lot of misinformation and PI grief. A lot of what he posts is either wildly optimistic or simply nonsense. Sorry, but this just needs saying. EMH tanked due to terrible PFS with high capex and IRR of only 21% - mines rarely get built with an IRR of less than 30%. Czech political interference happened later. This is an example of RH69's typical misinformation. Other than that, there's nothing to say about KENV until mid-March. Then we will find out at least some of the truth. My money is that the suspension here is due to false accounting, but that's only a guess.

Baht - firstly, that's an important point you make about costs increasing due to Euro appreciation against the dollar.. And most likely the effect will get worse. It could add up to 15% on some plant costs over time. Secondly, I'm invested here, so I do accept Rick Rule's general point. But when the market will move, nobody knows. There may be a little more uranium stockpiled above ground than we'd like, and it may take a little longer to clear than we are all hoping. Since the state of the uranium market is so unknowable, I'd be unhappy investing in any producer who didn't have low production costs. But BKY very much do, so it's worth the risk.

Rick Rule said the same thing last year about last year. And maybe he'll say it again next year about next year.

Itsaduster! You can't seriously be arguing that it would be better if RBW was more like a typical AIM miner, can you?!? You know, endless equity raises and shareholder dilution, production dates always disappearing off into the future, BoD owning no shares but paying themselves generous salaries and awarding themselves cheap options, etc. But, yes, I agree that if the lopolith turns out to be worth a billion dollars or more, or if the drilling turns up another very valuable discovery, then that will test RBW's relationship with the Burundi government. I worked for more than 20 years in the ex Soviet Union, and I know very well what can happen when bureaucrats, government ministers, or even the President himself gets greedy. But that's a challenge for another day; first, we need the drill results. And they are still two months away.

I wouldn't normally quote Goldman Sachs here, but a few months back they published a report which proposed that fear was good for gold in the West, but that prosperity was good for gold in the East (i.e. in China and India). I think there's truth in that theory, and so it is good for gold that both the Chinese and Indian economies are doing well. And, after all, China and India are the two biggest consumers of gold. I'd guess that a large part of Centamin's own production ends up as jewellery in India and China.

Thanks for the replies to my post about RBW's hypothetical billion dollar rock yesterday. If anybody passing geologists would like to contribute their pennyworth's of expertise I'd be very grateful. Measured in AIM terms, it's still eons to April (when the drilling results are due), so I'm half expecting the SP to drift down before then. But my lopolith theory does possibly answer a few questions that had been puzzling me about this share. Such as: a. Why do management (and the NED) own almost 40% of this $35m mcap AIM company, even though the jurisdiction (Burundi) can only be classified as high risk? b. Why is the CEO repeatedly buying more shares on the open market? c. Why did the last open offer placing last only minutes? And why, since the company clearly could have raised a lot more money, did they chose not to? d. Why has a major institution, Legal & General, made an exception to their usual practice and taken a stake in a small African miner? I think investors experienced in the usual ways of AIM minor miners will agree with me that this adds up to a very suspicious pattern of behaviour. It actually seems possible that RBW's management believe in their own company's prospects. Very odd.

Hi OdL! 1. Frankly, 3t per m3 for the density of rock is from Google. It's at the heavyish end of the range for average rock densities, but this is an igneous rock made up substantially of lanthalite oxides, so I think that's reasonable. Note, in the company's own recent presentation a heavy truck rig is only pulling a 1/3 size container of concentrate - presumably that's all it can manage. If anybody out there knows a more precise figure for RBW's rare earth ore density, please advise! 2. You're not quite right about the grade, remembering that the concentrate that RBW is currently shipping out isn't 100% pure. The reduction in weight by 40% just allows for the plant's jig and shaking tables to remove a fair amount of the impurities. I'd say I'm allowing for the grade to be an average 50%. 3. Current off take discount is 70%. But if my hypothesis is even close to correct, this would obviously mean a renegotiation of offtake terms with thyssenkrupp. Let's say the new discount would be a maximum of 60%. 4. Mining costs should be low. The supposed lopolith is only 20m below the surface, so it should be a free-digging open pit operation to get at the rock. 5. This is all back of a fag packet stuff, but IF my theory is right, the current share price could easily be wrong by a factor of 5. 5. Of course, the lopolith may turn out to be a "false alert". Ground gravity surveys can mislead. But I think in both the article and in their most recent presentation the company are trying to hint at this possible outcome ahead of the drilling results. This would also explain why Martin Eales, RBW's CEO, has been buying shares at full market rates recently! I've obviously bought a fair number of these shares already; as many as I dare considering the country risk factor. But, as I said, I'm pretty confident that this is a good investment even if the supposed lopolith is a bust. So this is a "free play" for me. I'd be very grateful for any more feedback, especially from any geologists out there!

I'd like to share a hypothesis with this board and to ask for feedback. First up, I'm invested here, and I don't need my hypothesis to be proved right to justify that investment. It's enough that RBW have a strong management team who own 40% of the company's shares, that the company is already in low-cost rare earth production, and that, regardless of what I write below, the company has a strong exploration upside (e.g. the possible carbonatite pipes and potential new narrow vein discoveries). The subject of this post is the possible large lopolith that RBW have discovered at Kiyenzi. The latest Proactive Investors article (which I take to come straight from the company or its PR agency) goes into some detail about this lump of rock. Here's the link again: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/190226?__twitter_impression=true It seems that RBW were led to this supposed lopolith by the discovery of large high grade boulders found on the surface nearby (see most recent company presentation), and that this encouraged them to make a ground gravity survey of the immediate area, which identified the anomaly. If this anomaly is indeed a lopolith (i.e. pooled and solidified igneous material), and if it is true that the high grade boulders on the surface have worked their way loose from it, then the implication must that the entire lopolith grades at 50% or more rare earths, just like the narrow veins currently being exploited. In the Proactive article the company gives a rough potential volume of the lopolith as 176,000m3. Assuming a heavyish bur realistic rock density of 3t per m3, then this would mean the lopolith weighs over 500,000t. If we calculate that that single lump of rock would yield about 300,000t of concentrate, which in turn would sell at our current basket price of $12 per kilo, then it would be worth $3.6bn (!) in potential income to the company (less discount to offtaker). And, for good measure, the presumed lopolith is near the surface and it wouldn't be too hard to mine, either. Obviously, the company is currently drilling and results are due in April. If I'm right about the lopolith, then what would RBW (mcap currently $35m) then be worth? Or is this old news? Or have I completely misunderstood something? Thoughts?

It's suspended, in case you haven't noticed. Nobody can buy or sell shares in KENV at all! - And no, I'm not sure the Nomad will resign, but I'd put the odds at over 50%. This is a totally ridiculous and utterly unprofessional situation. I know how reluctant Nomads are to lose paying clients, but finally they have to consider their own reputations and liabilities.

The trouble is RedorBlackorRed has been consistently right about KENV - but then I know that because I've been here a lot longer than you. So filter at your own risk! Personally, I'd think delisting far more likely than a buy-out at this point. How much does it take before the Nomad resigns?

Yes, quarterly report a bit "meh". Long term I'm still very positive about BKY, but I don't see any reason to expect a big share price movement in the near future.

The Miton money was effectively used to buy 29% of BMR shares. Take a close look at the potential profitability of that deal, and I think you'll understand Miton's reason for investing here. For me, the question is whether JLP now intend to proceed to a full takeover of BMR, or whether they will stop at their current 57% effective share of the potential profits from Kabwe.

Re: Shorting I believe the borrowed shares come from PIs - if they are holding them via nominee accounts with mass market brokers like HL, Barclays and so forth. Not that the PIs actually realise it! But, back to the main point, I'm pretty sure that BCN isn't being shorted much, if at all; that would be a crazy thing to do. Current drop is just investors cashing in on a profit.