Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Yes, I agree this is a punt - Burundi comes with formidable risk factors. But this mine isn't a one vein wonder, by any means. And the geologist in me is intrigued by those apparent pipe formations; Ankara really could become the world's largest source of rare earth oxides. I'm also sure the offtake agreement with thyssenkrupp will get adjusted if and when steady production is established. So I'm here for the long haul; or at least until there is evidence that you just can't do business in Burundi. I'll be adding as country risk diminishes.

I'm not quite sure I understand how it can be that RBW's share price has dropped on today's news - it's bizarre. But, since the project is now significantly derisked, I'm happy enough to take advantage and increase my holding.

Actually, it gives a quantity in the RNS - 25 metric tonnes. But proving up the transportation logistics is probably what matters most at this point.

Congratulations to Martin Eales and the entire team! I'm a big fan of companies that explain precisely what they are going to do and then go out and do exactly that. This is still early days, but I'm also excited by the exploration upside. RBW already have the world's highest grades of rare earth minerals, but it's also possible they have a much bigger resource than the market is allowing for.

Craig - I hope you don't mind me correcting the errors in your price comparisons earlier. I just passed by here, and they struck me as too obvious to ignore. I've just read back through a couple of pages of the posts on here. I understand your frustrations as a long term holder in AAU; the SP performance (and indeed the whole company's performance) has been pretty awful over the last year. Indeed, over its entire existence AAU has destroyed massive amounts of shareholder value; equity raise after equity raise has been frittered away on "generous" management expenses and unrewarding exploration projects. I don't know how this changes without a change of CEO, which I just don't see happening. All in all, I'd recommend selling up and putting your money in a better managed company. Sorry to be so blunt.

Hi Craig! Can I correct some facts / add some notes to your post? CEY will produce around 540,000 ounces Au this year (most likely a little more). Very low AISC, Al-Sukhary is one of the world's very best mines. IMO, SP cheap at the moment. HUM will produce 132,000 ounces in their first year of full production in Mali (first gold pour is imminent; company also has excellent development prospects and superb management). I'd strongly recommend this one. VAST is a complex company, having separate operations in Romania and Zimbabwe. The Romanian operations are polymetallic, and its not easy to value it as a gold only producer. Also, they are imminently expecting a mining licence for a second mine in Romania, Balta Plai, which is transformational for their prospects. Only for the brave, but possibly rewarding. KEFI: no info, never did like it as an investment proposition (or SHG, SULA, GGP and various others, for that matter). FTSE 100 miner Randgold (RRS) is obviously a strong company, but it is trading at a very high P/E, so I'm not sure I'd recommend buying shares at its current price.

I'm wondering if it won't be a case of "buy the rumour and sell the news" as regards the U.S. tax reform bill. (Besides, the Senate version of the bill still has to be reconciled with the House version, which is very different. It's a real mess of a bill, too. If you look into the details, it won't do much good for the U.S. economy in the short term, and in the long term it makes the deficit an even bigger problem.) I'm also wondering how the general market will react to Trump's legal troubles. The way I read things, both his son in law Jared Kushner and his son Donald Trump Jr. are in massive legal trouble. My money is on a resignation in disgrace from Trump within a year (with pardons all round for his family). Hopefully, he doesn't start a war before then.

Nope, I'm not an ex-employee, just a guy with a heavy cold who is spending too much time in front of a computer (and who really does research the companies he thinks about investing in). Not really looking for a cheap entry price here, either; especially given that there will most likely be multiple new equity raises to come. Rather I'd need to see a major clear out and a new broom at the company first; one that actually prioritised investors and which explained what state the company was actually in. It's all as clear as mud here now. Anyway, signing off. GLA.

In general, I'm interested in any miners specialising in tantalum, rare earths, lithium, vanadium, cobalt, zinc and a few other "new economy" metals. (E.g. currently invested in RBW, though it's a high risk venture). Researched KENV, even made a small trial investment. Realised that management here are untrustworthy. Sold. Check back in from time to time to see if there are any major developments. But I think I'd need to see the departures of both LJ and GC before thinking again about investing. If you are holding here, I do wish you good luck.

TBH, I don't know if the mine is losing money on opex, or if it is at least covering its day to day costs. Nobody outside the company does (unless the folks at Tracarta do, ehem). Based on my own business experience, I suspect that a lot of the company's claims about confidentiality agreements are bullshit, and they are covering up the fact that the mine is producing and shipping only very small quantities of finished product. Hence, my feeling that they are losing money on opex. But I could be wrong. - As for tantalum, yes, there will never be a shortage of buyers for conflict-free non-radioactive tantalum. I don't think selling the goods is the problem here, rather producing it. - As for Larry Johnson, I disagree with the general opinion of the board. My intuition is that he was forced out of Kemet, and that he is in fact a very difficult, arrogant, and egotistical man, and that few people would want to work with him. - As said before, I'm confident that the whole lithium story spun by GC is basically unrealistic. - All IMO, of course.

I'd imagine more fundraising, TBH, and quite soon. There will be a lot of old mine equipment that still needs to be replaced, and I think the financials will show a lot of the money already raised has been used to fund loss-making operations, rather than capex. I also firmly believe the lithium is a dead duck (ask anybody who truly understands hard rock lithium mining their opinion; it's totally unreal). KENV stands or falls as a tantalite miner. I think probably falls.

In this particular case I would be more optimistic about the anomalies - they may reveal near surface pipe structures which are the origin of the surface veins, which would indeed be highly significant in the long term. But you're right, production is all-important at the moment. There'll be time enough to go exploring once a positive cash flow is established.

Northtothefuture - you've pretty much expressed my feelings about this long term devourer of private investors's capital. Perhaps we should just accept that AAU is an AIM lifestyle company and that Kerim is a truly terrible CEO (if a competent geologist)? There are other (far better) gold miners to invest in, you know!

I bought back in again. Was I right or wrong to sell out on the Cameco news? Well, I made 5% by selling on the spike and buying back, so that's a positive. But I think I read the market wrong, and the Cameco shutdown will push up the spot price more than I thought. (There's an interesting uranium price analysis by Cantor Fitzgerald on u3o8.biz if anybody is interested). A director buying is also a good sign. So let's hope for some good news soon!

Reading your summary of the Cameco conference call makes me realise why I could never be a CEO of a public company. I just couldn't put such a positive spin on such a series of negatives and keep a straight face. It takes real skill to do that!

Baht, I know that the two Cameco mines are officially coming off line in January for a planned ten months. But these suspensions have a tendency to be extended once the painful initial decision has been made. Also, the laid off staff soon find other jobs (or at least the good ones do). Add in Cameco's debts and their tax case, and I'm wondering if this isn't the beginning of the end for them, just like Paladin. All of which makes today's increase in URA ETF somewhat paradoxical, as (I believe) Cameco are a major constituent of URA. Anyway, GLA.

No, everybody will do as they think best. I know I've taken a chance here, and I hope it will pay off. - Not really a trader of BKY either. I look at it as a good long term hold. But I do think this is a good chance to bank a solid 10% profit. As for Cameco, I wonder whether production from the two mines closed yesterday will ever be resumed. IMO, the future belongs to low-cost producers like Kazatom, BKY, and NexGen; not to high-cost producers weighed down by historic debts and obligations.

Kazatomprom are widely believed to have not actually made their advertised 10% cut (accurate company figures are almost impossible to come by). Also, it's clear that there is much more yellowcake stored above ground than was previously thought, especially in Russia. So the era of low U3O8 prices will continue for some time whilst the market works through this supply glut. - All in all, I'm not sure this morning's news about Cameco is all THAT good for BKY. I've taken a chance and sold my shares for a 10% profit, because I think the SP will drop back down again in a few days' time when people realise this.

Barrick buying out the other shareholders in Acacia makes practical business sense. If Barrick don't make an offer, then they are leaving themselves open to all kinds of minority shareholder lawsuits. But I've got no idea of the price Barrick might offer - today's SP +30% perhaps. And I've got no idea how acceptable ACA shareholders might find this (or any other) offer price. Even after today's departures of ACA's CEO and CFO (which I take to be good news), this is still a horrible mess.

IMO, political risk insurance wouldn't pay in Acacia's case. The insurers would tell you to go to international arbitration, as per the signed contracts, and to get your money back via that route. All in all, this whole situation is a legal nightmare, and it could turn into a bonanza payday for the lawyers.