Member Info for TigerByTheTail

The logistical problems are indeed a killer for the lithium resource. The lithium (if it indeed it even exists) would either require huge amounts of water and power for processing (not available) OR it would require enormous quantities of relatively low value ore to be trucked and shipped enormous distances. It almost certainly wouldn't be economically viable, either way. - The tantalum is indeed not that bulky and of much higher value per tonne, so that's another matter. The question with the tantalum seems to be can Aftan produce commercial quantities to a grade that a customer is willing to accept...

Separately, does anybody on here worry about Spanish political risk? I've started to be concerned about this. BKY's active political "cover" comes from the Partido Popular of the current PM. The Socialists and Ciudadanos are in favour of the Salamanca project without being actively invested, whilst forces in Podemos are against it ("StopUranio"). What happens if Partido Popular destroys its electability over the repression of Catalan independence? What happens if Podemos come to power, even if only as part of a coalition? I know this outcome isn't probable, but it is possible.

I'd be very careful with the Deep Yellow report; it's clearly slanted research. First, it's too bullish about the immediate upside for the uranium price. There is simply more uranium already "above ground" than people realised, and it is still clogging up the spot market (see Cantor Fitzgerald's recently revised market analysis of the uranium price). Also, some of Kazatom's announced production "cuts" appear to have been largely illusory. All in all, the uranium price recovery will happen, but it is going to take a little longer than people hoped. Also, the five explorer companies then selected as investment targets, well, let's just say the writers of the report needed to get paid...

Namibia indeed politically stable (by African standards) and a good mining jurisdiction. There is some talk of expanding current black economic empowerment legislation (in the South African style), but nothing substantive. I don't think country risk is the problem here - for me, the problems (and they simply couldn't be more serious) relate to the lack of information and figures about current operations, and to all the untruths told in the past by the BoD. That's why this is truly a bargepole stock.

No, SGRF aren't your usual scumbag AIM financier, looking to churn shares as quickly as possible for a quick profit. Rather, they are the sovereign wealth fund of Oman. IMO, they'll be looking to convert their loans into shares and to hold for the very long term. Framing the investment deal as a convertible loan, rather than as simple equity, gives them a little extra security if something goes horribly wrong, such as the mine isn't built.

Many thanks for the posts - they answered a lot of my questions!

Precisely. Company directors can't just pay bribes and extortion money without serious legal repercussions. - In other news, Tanzania is closing down HIV/AIDS clinics as part of a wider crackdown against homosexuality. President Magufeli is a very charming man!

There is a second problem here for Acacia / Barrick. By paying the mooted $300m to Tanzanian government Acacia / Barrick would be either a) admitting previous serious corporate wrongdoing or b) paying a bribe (illegal). This is going to create a field day for lawyers bringing various shareholder suits against the two companies and their directors. I just don't see how to solve this problem in a positive way. For my money, the only real option for Acacia is to deny all wrongdoing, refuse to pay the $300m, and to rely on international arbitration. But that's not an easy path, either.

Lithium is common - the 24th most common element on earth, actually. And spudomene is a fairly common mineral. If you are going to rock mine lithium (much more expensive than brine extraction) there are much better / cheaper places to do it than the burning Namib desert! Also, there is a massive amount of lithium carbonate / hydroxide production about to come online; so much so that most analysts think the lithium price will crash in the next couple of years. But DYOR!

I agree with this, but there is also very substantial legal peril for both the board of Barrick and the board of Acacia. There are all kinds of possibilities for shareholder lawsuits against both companies, especially if the Tanzanian government require an admission of wrongdoing. Honestly, I'm not sure if it wouldn't be better to reject the proposed deal and to go with international arbitration.

The "lithium" that has been "clogging up the plant" is actually the mineral lepidolite. Nobody in the world processes lepidolite into lithium carbonate (because it would simply cost too much). Most lithium comes from brine extraction, but the few hard rock miners that do exist use spudomene, a different mineral from lepidolite, and easier to process. Tantalite possibly has some resources of spudomene in areas away from the two old mines, but it's currently impossible to say for sure. Anyway, lithium spudomene processing requires lots of water, lots of power, a skilled workforce and a huge capital outlay - none of which KENV have. In other words, there is no chance of Aftan becoming a lithium producer. It was a lie told to fool investors, plain and simple. Aftan lives or dies as a tantalite producer (and probably dies). I hope this helps.

Even more helpful is the fact that the new South Korean president has just done a 180 degree turn and announced that his country will go on building nuclear power plants.

Indeed, the Barrick deal raises al kinds of interesting legal issues. For instance, why don't the minority shareholders of Acacia club together and launch a class action suit against Barrick? Barrick had no right to negotiate this deal on their behalf, and to their obvious detriment.

Having read through everything I think this company is simply not a going concern anymore. In retrospect, Acacia should have walked away from Tanzania when this dispute began and it still had large cash reserves. The effective complete marginalisation of Acacia's minority shareholders also leaves a very unpleasant smell. I assume that there will be no new foreign investment in Tanzania for a long time as a result of the government's actions. Not a good deal at all - for either party.

The Tanzanian government will have 16% of the shares, but also 50% of the revenues, plus an extra $300m as well. I can't see how Acacia is a going concern at this rate, but apparently the market thinks me wrong!

I'm pretty sure that there is no future in mining lithium at Tantalite Valley. Even if they did find large amounts of high grade spudomene, the remote location, the lack of water, the lack of power, and the lack of a skilled workforce would make operations prohibitively expensive. Also, the business reputation of the BoD would mean it was impossible to raise the very large amounts of finance (hundreds of millions of dollars) required. - IMO, the whole lithium "story" is at best a marketing ploy, at worst, cynical hype. For me, Aftan is either a tantalum mine or it is nothing. And probably it is nothing.

Hi! The stand out Canadian uranium play has to be NexGen - just look at its Arrow deposit figures. Like BKY it has a very low cost of production. However, it's a few years behind BKY. IMO, BKY best near term producer play for uranium around. Exploration plays are a completely different animal, but if interested take a look at Deep Yellow (ASX).

Happy with good solid progress. Everything going exactly as per the recent Denver presentation. Financial position should improve substantially from here.

I wouldn't worry about this story too much. I'm pretty sure this is Russian black propaganda - deliberate misinformation - in support of their political and economic agenda. Zerohedge carries a lot of Kremlin backed material.

Thanks very much for the replies. A natural follow-up question is to ask what do we know about a possible timeline for the granting of the radioactivity licence? Can this delay the plant build and the start of actual production?