Member Info for TigerByTheTail

No, I don't have any targets for you - my crystal ball broke a few years ago. But put yourself in the shoes of our institutional investors - Legal & General and Miton. They wouldn't normally bother with the shares of a small miner running a glorified pick and shovel operation in Burundi; and certainly not for the sake of a measly 20% upside. No, they are thinking 100% upside, at least. And since one institution (Miton?) is seemingly still buying at 18.50p, that must mean that institution's analyst thinks these shares will hit 37p. Sorry if this post reads a bit rampy! For all their resources, institutions can be and have been wrong about individual shares, of course.

Another buy from our mystery institution just popped up on the board - this time 150,000 shares at 18.5p at 15.30 yesterday. (That is, assuming all these big round figure buys are from the same source). All in all, I'd expect another rise today as the market-makers try to find shares.

With Kabwe up in the air, it's impossible to call this a fantastic RNS. There are clearly still difficulties at Hernic as well , and the plant itself remains in business rescue. So, no, hard to call these results fantastic. There is still a long way to go.

Hi Pension Deficit! I'm not a qualified geologist, so treat this post with care. Yes, I think the Kiyenzi boulders may have somehow worked loose from the edge of the lopolith - that can happen in lots of ways, not just by weathering. Judging by the fact that it was the presence of the boulders that encouraged Rainbow to make a ground gravity survey of the immediate area, I'd guess Rainbow's geologists believed something like that, too. As regards the carbonatite pipes, it's hard to explain in a few words in a post. I'll try and find a link for you later.

Please ignore last two sentences of previous post - forgot to edit out!

Hi Ragnarlothbrok! As regards the lopolith cores, yes, I think the drill team would be able to tell at a glance that they'd hit paydirt. Even the drill core's weight alone would tell them something. Remember that Rainbow were led to the lopolith by boulders of high grade bastnasite / monazite found downslope nearby, so the drill team wouldn't need to look very far for comparison samples. Theoretically, the lopolith should grade roughly similarly to the narrow veins Rainbow are currently mining - i.e. 47% to 67% TREO. After all, the presumed lopolith is just a narrow vein system which was stopped at source, and which then pooled outwards and cooled. As regards the other drill targets, the carbonatite pipes, I think visual interpretation of the cores would be much more difficult. I'd also expect them to grade completely differently from the narrow veins and lopolith - probably at something close to the worldwide average TREO grades of 1% to 5%. But the total tonnage of ore could be huge. I also think the carbonatite pipes would need a different kind of mining, and the company would need to build a bigger beneficiation plant to process the ore. In other words, their exploitation would be a later phase of the mine's development. If the cores resemble the boulders of high grade rare earth mineralisation that Rainbow discovered downslope from Kiyenzi Probably you could tell by weight alone.

Hi Strangerstill! Just to add my thanks as well - it's always reassuring to hear from somebody who has been to site and who can confirm that we're being told the truth by the company.

I'm guessing that the 250,000 trade at 9.23 a.m. was our big institutional buyer sweeping up as much loose stock as they can again. Is good to know that they are still buying. If we're going to speculate on a takeover, why look any further than Rainbow's off take partner, ThyssenKrupp? There's no need to bring Tesla (or Apple or anybody else) into it. But, personally, I think the explanation for the seemingly unstoppable rise in the share price is simply a leak from the drilling team.

As I wrote last week, I'm not quite sure how you can keep the "lopolith" drilling results secret. Unless you blindfold the drilling crew, they will know immediately if they hit almost pure bastnasite / monazite mineralisation - it's hard, brown, and very heavy. And how do you stop that news spreading?

Caught this post by chance. Definitely not my buy. Wouldn't dream of buying back into this flea-bitten dog of a company in a million years. Anyway, as you were. Carry on ramping until the next placing. Should be soon.

Market-makers sold out of shares? According to this website, this is a new all-time high - and there is still a month to go before we get the exploration results.

At a guess, that's our institutional buyer making their daily sweep up of any loose shares, just like they did last week. If so, I'm glad to see they are still buying; hopefully the bid will tick up in response.

Here are a couple of useful links for any new visitors. One is a CEO interview from earlier this month; the other is an article from January: http://www.iii.co.uk/brr-media/483270/121-mining-cape-town-rainbow-rare-earths-presentation http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/190226?__twitter_impression=true Rainbow is already mining and exporting, but pay attention to the exploration drilling news due in April. Especially, the possible discovery of a 500,000 ton solid lump of high grade rare earth mineralisation ("the lopolith"). If that confirms up, it's roughly equivalent to one year's entire production of rare earths. On a bag of a fag packet basis, I make the profit it would bring to the company to be more than $400m - or more than 10x current market cap. All IMO and DYOR. The other targets of the current drilling campaign are carbonatite pipes - these are very large. but they will probably grade at lower than the world high 47%-67% grades of the narrow veins currently being mined. All in all, there is huge exploration potential here.

Not quite, Myst1. EMH is very (as in VERY) cheap IF it can get the mine licensed, financed, built, and into production. That much is true. But, EMH is very expensive IF it fails to do that. If it can't, then, in the final analysis, EMH is worthless. The current low share price reflects that the market doesn't really believe EMH can do it. Right now, I'm not convinced either. EMH simply must have the Czech government's support to make this project work. I also think you underestimate the extent to which the governments of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and now the Czech Republic have been taken over by populist, almost mob-like, groupings who don't give a damn for "the good of the country" if they are not profiting personally. I call this the Russification of Eastern Europe. Even EU law and EU courts are basically ignored now in Poland and Hungary. I find this all incredibly sad, especially as I was in Prague during the Velvet Revolution.

Hazard - Management have also dropped enough hints about the current drilling campaign to make it possible to work out the rather sizeable upside implications. I'm just wondering at what point does the herd arrive here!

Myst1 - Why would they? Why on earth would the government issue a mining license after a move like this? Unless, of course, this is all a prelude to making EMH an offer that it can't refuse. You know, like hand over 50% for free to some government cronies. Don't get romantic about "the rule of law" and "the good of the country". This is Eastern Europe in 2017, and those concepts - very sadly - are so 1990s now.

I've got to say, I think the company has played pretty fair with information over the last few months. They haven't exactly ramped the share price, but they have dropped enough clues so that the puzzle could be pieced together. We PIs have also had the chance to buy at "mates' rates" over the last couple of months. And, to a certain extent, we still have that chance.

That is factually inaccurate. EMH do not have a mining license. And, by the looks of it, EMH is not going to get one anytime soon. It will also be impossible for EMH to raise meaningful finance until this dispute is settled. Yes, EMH are being bullied. Yes, this is morally wrong. But the fact is, EMH are weak and the Czech government are strong.

So Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminium yesterday, and perhaps fired the first shot in a full-scale U.S. - Chinese trade war. Trade wars do almost nobody any good, but one of the few companies that might benefit is Rainbow. Rare earths are crucial for many new technologies and China dominates (95%) world supply. It has used this fact to pressurise the West into trade concessions in the past. If it tries it again, rare earth prices will spike, and a producing miner like Rainbow will become not only become very valuable, but even strategically important. So, we have the mine commissioned, concentrate being shipped to offtaker, a very prospective drilling campaign currently in progress, a background of rising prices, and now this news as well. Not too shabby.

I fail to see how this can be spun as positive news - despite the best efforts of the usual suspects on this board. EMH depend on the Czech government for mining licenses and much else besides - if the state of relations between the company and the government is like this, this project is going precisely nowhere.