Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I think some posters here are getting carried away about BMR. BMR won't see any money from Kabwe until JLP have been paid back the costs of building the plant, which will most likely mean 2020. Until then, BMR have no source of income except issuing more and more equity. BMR's management are also incompetent and wasteful and prone to chasing rainbows (and that's being nice about it). For me, BMR's share price jumps to 3p on readmission, and then it stays about there for some considerable time. There are a lot of people who bought in at about 2p, and who have been suspended for months. They will want to sell asap. And I can't imagine there are many investors around who are stupid enough to trust the current BMR BOD with their money. IMO, JLP got by far the better part of the Kabwe deal. JLP also has other valuable assets and (crucially) a very good CEO. There's only one winner here.

Hi Hazrat! - I've got to say I disagree with your "lose it all" comment. My opinion is that the current narrow vein mining operation basically justifies the current market cap, though there are still a lot of details about the operation to be filled in. For me, the current exploration program is all upside. It could add nothing to the value of the company, it could add a lot (and I mean A LOT). We just don't know yet. But even if Rainbow were to draw a complete blank with the exploration program, it would still be a low-cost producer of rare earths, and one of the very few such mines outside China. That's got to be worth a 40m pound market cap by itself!

I don't need a China-US trade war to justify my investment in Rainbow. The amazing resource and the top quality management team are good enough by themselves. But (IMO) there is no arguing that a full-scale China-US trade war would result in rare earth prices rocketing upwards. Here's a decent article on the subject (even if it is from the Zerohedge website): https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-06/here-are-chinas-five-options-nuclear-trade-war Note: the writer of the article is very blithe about the radiation dangers posed by thorium. The dangers are real, and that's why most rare earth projects demand such high capex and face such complex regulatory requirements. (And, in turn, that's why the vast majority of these proposed mines will never actually be built). Rainbow (already in production) are incredibly lucky that their deposit isn't affected by this issue.

BMR RNS just out. No funny stuff - they are going for a placing for working capital and planning to go ahead with the Jubilee JV asap.

Hi Shakey! Yes, you're right with your two caveats. And there is also the country risk of Burundi to consider. But, taken all in all, IMO Rainbow is well worth the risks involved.

My one year old son pointed to a rainbow in his picture book this morning, so I've taken that as a sign that he wanted some of his JISA invested here. So I've just done that for him. Reading the dregs of the porridge he left in his bowl, his justifications seem to be: a. Rainbow has a superb rare earth resource, with out-and-out the best grades worldwide. And Rainbow is already in production. b. Rainbow has strong management team (who own 40% of the stock). And, even though Rainbow is only a tiny start-up, two major institutions (LGEN and Miton) are already on board. c. Rainbow has a massive exploration upside, with drill results due shortly. d. Donald Trump appears intent on starting a trade war with China. China controls (93%) of the world market in rare earths, and they have used this as a trade weapon before. If they do so again, non-Chinese rare earth producers like Rainbow (and Lynas in Aus) will become incredibly valuable and important. e. Rainbow's market cap is still low, considering all the above.

"BMR notes the announcement by Jubilee Metals Group PLC regarding the re-instatement of BMR's Small Scale Mining Licence 7081-HQ-SML. The licence has indeed been re-instated albeit with conditions attached. BMR is in the process of clarifying these conditions whereupon it will make a fuller announcement." - Extraordinary. There is clearly more of this story to come. Takeover of BMR by JLP?!?

I have to reply to one of RH69s pseudo-learned posts, because it is just too funny. So, geology 101: Tantalum is NOT a rare earth element!!! (It is sometimes classed as a "rare metal" but that is something quite different.)

Lurker - I'm always willing to listen to the bear case on any share I own. So hit us with it; but with hard facts and figures, please, not just unbacked assertions. You've boasted of all your research, so why not share it? For instance, what do you think the current NPV / IRR of Hummingbird is, and on what facts and assumptions do you base your calculations? Speaking for myself, I can tell you that I have done my research on a fair number of gold miners (not all, of course). Hummingbird is the best junior that I've come across (and it would seem that Rick Rule agrees with me).

Well, somebody has to say this is total rollocks, so I will. Hummingbird is now a highly profitable gold producer which should generate nearly 50% of its current market cap in free cash flow this year(!!!); enabling it to simultaneously invest in increasing its mine life, pay down its very manageable debt, buy back its own shares, build up a cash reserve, and pay a dividend - if it so chooses. With numbers like that, it doesn't really matter if the company is making widgets or mining gold; what matters is it is making money hand over fist. But, Lurker, you are 100% right that Hummingbird doesn't really belong on AIM anymore. It's too good a company for that, and it should move to the main market (and perhaps TSX) asap. p.s. FWIW, investing in a share "story" is usually a quick way to lose money. Numbers (i.e. a company's ability to generate free cash) are what really matter.

Thanks Johnny! At a minimum, I'm hoping they won't declare full commercial production before April 6th. I'd like to buy a few more shares in the new tax year before prices go up! DB and BorderTerrier - happy to take your shares off your hands, especially if you're willing to let them go cheap.

Hi Darola! So, sixty days... I figure from the last ramp-up update RNS there was plant downtime in late February (you can kind of see its shadow in the published numbers), so I make it that would make the official declaration of "full commercial production" sometime in late April.

Does anybody here know offhand the correct technical definition of "full commercial production" for a gold mine? I know it's something like "x weeks uninterrupted production at y% of name plate capacity", but I can't recall the precise figures. Many thanks for any replies. (I'm just trying to judge when full commercial production will be officially declared. We must be close now).

Hi Jersey John! I'd also like to see HUM move its corporate HQ to Jersey - it makes so much sense from a corporation tax point of view. At the same time, I'd like the company to relist from AIM to the main market. (If we're headquartered in Jersey, then share purchase stamp duty also doesn't apply). Finally, (since wishes always come in threes), I'd like HUM to also list in Canada on the TSX. That should help improve the share price.

I read that link too - it was interesting. To me, a short attack on Hummingbird makes no sense at all, except as a prelude to a lowball takeover bid. However, I'm not sure that is what is going on here; it's possible Hummingbird's bargain basement share price is simply a combination of AIM not valuing companies properly (as per usual), all gold mining shares being in the doldrums right now, and heavy persistent selling from Lindine and Pageant, both for reasons not directly related to Hummingbird. IMO, in the final analysis, the stock market can't affect the performance of the company, but the performance of the company can affect the stock market. Sooner or later value will out. Even shorters have to eventually buy back the stock they have borrowed and sold. As I still view Hummingbird as an exceedingly well run company, I'm willing to go on holding and waiting. Obviously, I don't like the current share price - who does? But the only thing that would make me consider selling would be bad news from the company - something serious that affected its proper valuation. And there's no sign of that. And IF Hummingbird's share price has been deliberately suppressed to help a takeover bid, well, to have any chance of succeeding the bid would have to be at a premium of at least 30% to the current share price. So even that wouldn't be a complete disaster - even though I wouldn't much like it.

Frankly, if I were JLP, I'd use the 29% shareholding in BMR to call an EGM of that company, and then vote out the current management. The sooner they are gone the better for everyone; including BMR's small shareholders.

BMR interims out today. They are worth a look - if only because I've never read such a sad tale of complete mismanagement and failure in an official RNS before. They allege a conspiracy over the Kabwe licence revocation, but say they nothing about the company's own misrepresentations to the market (e.g.: raising placing money in November 2017 when the BoD already knew the mining licence was in doubt). I've got no idea if BMR / JLP will get the Kabwe licence back or not. I certainly don't think it is a done deal. Finally, it's also worth noting that BMR are in desperate need of cash just to keep the lights on, and one way (about the only way, in fact) they could raise it is by selling off their shares in JLP.

It's an absolute joke (and not a funny one) to suggest KENV / KZG have even a puncher's chance of making a go of this lithium deposit. 1. There is plenty of lithium in the world. In fact, according to no less than Rick Rule, we're now looking at oversupply. 2. Cheapest production will always come from brines. There is plenty more brine resource to come online, esp. from Argentina and Bolivia (absolutely massive resources). 3. Even the very best hard rock spudomene resources (e.g. Greenbushes in Aus) will find it hard to compete on price with brine production. 4. Figures reported by KENV/KZC today hardly compare with 6% really required for hard rock deposit viability 5. Add in negative factors of no water on site, remote hostile desert location, massive trucking and shipping distances to market, no trained personnel in area, management with very bad reputation, company with almost no cash and very limited possibilities of raising any more, need for huge capex etc. = no chance. Tantalum is a separate question, and I don't know enough about that to really comment. PG - you win the prize for cluelessness.

Hi OdL! Thanks for the reply. So c. 60p NPV for Yanfolila (as per today's document) + something for future exploration / acquisitions + something for Cora + something for Dugbe... And we're at 33p today! I know all gold mining shares are out of fashion right now, but this is a pretty absurd situation. Does the market believe a meteorite is headed straight for Yanfolila?

I've seen better than a 26% resource-reserve conversion rate. I guess the lowish number has something to do with the sulphide-oxide-fresh gold mix, and also with strip ratios. But perhaps I missed out something important in my last post. If you look at page 3 of the document, the company is now officially predicting (with caveats) a twelve year life of mine with production at around 120,000 ounces of gold per year. That is a huge upgrade from the current/previous mine plan. I don't know what effect this has on Hummingbird's NPV, but it will be big.