Member Info for Thunder2040

Recent share price action does not inspire much confidence that Kier is turning the corner, however I ask you all this - if the situation has deteriorated or risk increased so much recently - why have the shorts halved since the full year results were announced?

Why does mass infrastructure spending announcements from the two largest political parties (and likely the next chancellor) in the exact sectors that Kier operate in (Rail, Road, Hospitals and Schools) mean this is now a bigger risk? Surely this will lower the volume risks Kier have faced in Highways?

The banks don't like the sector anymore - but with interest rates crashing down a refinance does not look out of the question - as who exactly are they going to lend to to generate returns?

Some of the scaremongering and news articles doing the rounds are plain ridiculous. I expect the recovery to continue - its a long road but they kitchen sinked the exceptional items last time around - people should not be surprised to see a profit come around sooner than many expect.

Lots of keyboard warriors sniping and trying to sound clever by pointing at a graph of the share price crashing down in the last year - in fact half of them and the analysts that write the notes don't have a clue how to read a set of financial statements. The debt facility has bags of headroom. I recently saw one analyst suggesting that there should be no net debt - do they even understand how to leverage a balance sheet to increase ROE?

DYOR but I am buying this dip and will make a fair chunk when this recovers - patience and selective hearing required.

Agree - not sure anyone is going short on a share with such a puny free float and bummed out share price. I actually wonder if Richmond started selling out...

Trade log makes interesting reading, some gigantic trades cleared this afternoon, one £25m, couple of £6m trades and numerous more chunky sells. I would say an II has exited their entire position on this today - expect to find out who tomorrow.

Seem to want more...and not the only ones

Exactly - the article is literally rubbish, they have branches opening which take time to ramp up, this will always hit margins. This is still a growth stock. Before the misclassifcation debacle deposits were growing strongly, they will grow again, as they bank performs very well in customer satisfaction reviews.

US data caused that spike at the close I think. Good to see we have not totally disconnected from market fundamentals tbh!

Fair play Stew. Feel like we are close to the Brexit nadir tonight - market could rally hard with just a few power players being more diplomatic both here and over in Europe. Heavy exposure to UK resi mortgages - so derisk massive if we deal. Would like some more data on capacity of branches to gain further deposits etc..as I think the one remaining elephant in the room that the shorts are hammering us for is low margins - they need to get these up.

Delayed price from this morning that I think.

Don't get sucked into thinking Odey and co. always know best - when they don't they get burnt to a f*cking Crisp!;)

Yeah but comparing interest rates like that is not really relevant. I think you could become a long here tbh, you are just venting a few fears which I could put right fairly quickly

Bucklefern. You missed the fact that the total lent off that capital is far higher.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/10/01/monzo-customers-fury-refund-chaos-firm-cancels-subscription/

Maybe the free perks at £6/month were just too expensive even for Monzo - people need to wake up and see that Metro is a saver bet that half the fintechs

IMO they can dispose of commercial loan book and remove the MREL requirement in a flash - so that is one distinct possibility. Its a non core asset that probably doesn't mesh with the strategy at the moment as it stands. I will see for balance the lower interest rates rate hurt all banks, but Metro is about quality, and quality endures in times of peril. It also has safety deposit boxes which will be ever more popular in any downturn.

Shorts will be screwed on this eventually. The last thing they want is for IIs to hoover up the shares they are pouring into the market, as they won't give them back anytime soon. So the freefloat will reduce drastically.

MREL is nothing to do with solvency, its just literally a regulatory buffer, and will be softened IMO. All those attacking the profitability of the business as a reason to short should also take a look at the competition. The digital only banks currently all make losses as they are trying to grab market share with unsustainable freebies. If the credit market seizes up or they can't raise fresh capital they will be long gone way before METRO would - who actually has a quality asset portfolio and proven profitability.

I think a lot of people have misjudged this one - but it is always hard going against the herd. If I am right, rewards will be handsome.

The bond was only £25m short of being fully subscribed, so if they were that desperate surely they would have just taken what was offered and then done a placing for £25m (which is peanuts vs market cap).

Add this to the fact that there have been none of the larger investors adding from TR1s gives me the distinct impression that something is coming.

- The drop was fear - pure and simple, shorters just had field day.
- Business makes money
- The Cap requirement is nothing to do with the company's solvency or ability to operate as a going concern in normal conditions, its a reg. requirements - so basically non operational requirement.
- At current price the NAV exceeds the market cap - lunacy!
- Best in field customer service
- Lousy investor relations and RNS - must do better
- Hold for gold

Silence from the board is deafening. Just let 50% of mc get wiped with no comment. Unacceptable level of comms but I will hold as I think this is a comms issue rather than anything more Some people are making £££ when they really should not be hear IMO

Eni closed some of their short yesterday, Whitebox could have been hovering near threshold anyway. This stinks of manipulation to me - not going to be forced out as not leveraged.

Really don't get the wording and abruptness of the RNS. Then nothing further after more than a third of market cap taken off. Hard to decide if board are clueless or if something else is brewing. But by all reports needs funds by 1st Jan so what are we looking at here? Can they even get a placing away...doubt it. Which then begs the question is this going to breach.

All these amatuer investors suddenly experts on funding strategy....bond didnt float in current market...but why did JP offer funds, equity get subscribed and other bond issue get filled if it doesnt work? Total idiots or shorts here with no clue