Member Info for Thunder2040

This is now a highly leveraged oil play discounted for increased risk of default ...should have gone up about 10% on this oil price spike

In at 61.8p...looking for 65p

Less sure about this share after that drill result. Unless they come out with an update showing some sort of production improvement plan its screwed in the medium term. Thing I never liked in the initial production downgrade forcast RNS was that they projected it out a needlessly long time...just to compound the fact. That killed it for me as implies they can't fix it. Hope it comes good for those invested. I caught falling knife at 70p and got taken down to 39p where I bailed. Jumped back on at 45p to 68p to recoup most of trade but still lost money on this. Can't trust it.

About time this re rated to purported offer price IMO...surprised its taking so long but starting to get there now. I think many suspect the rally in equities is the final flourish of the longest bull market on record...haven demand is too robust to imply anything else.

If there was anything to hide you would not invite an independent review from big4. End of attack here IMO. Will hold for full recovery

Cheers for the research Longish. I guess the based on DCF the booked GW value stands up to scrutiny in that it is supported in value by future earnings - although it is hard to gauge if they paid 'too much' for the assets from the info we have.

Bur is not helped by the turn of events in Argentina impacting Peterson recovery or the sell down from Woodford/Invesco...but in my view Bur will rebound fully eventually. It is an alternative asset class in its infancy, time will heal over there.

Furthermore, I will dig into the goodwill figure over the weekend, granted that is a hefty figure on the balance sheet. Assume the overvaluation of assets etc that MW talk about is locked up in there - and so perhaps they are implying some kind if impairment needed. It all gets a lot more complicated looking into that balance tbh as involves FV of assets at aqui which is itself subjective but I still don't see this 'opinion' piece being worth a 50% decline. Anyone with details on that goodwill please share. MW went after FV accounting in Burford, so I think this short had been carefully picked as with subjective valuations you can often argue them both ways.

I just read the 6 month interim financial statements. This company is producing some seriously decent figures. 33% revenue growth, 22.5% Ebitda growth, current ratio 1.7x, net debt to EBITDA 2.7x

So I don't care much about this 'overpaying for capex' point - as if they get it any cheaper going forward the metrics get even better. As for hiding cash or debt - I doubt this as well. EY would be all over that and besides, how have they financed the buyback of bonds and shares if they aren't throwing off cash...MW implying they are paying for it out of debt - pull the other one!

I expect people to sit down with a calculator this weekend and come to the same conclusion I just have - unless the wheels completely fall off in terms of service and demand for the products this is now insanely cheap..trailing P/E of 10 I believe and a forward P/E of far less.

If you trust EY more than Muddy Waters (who proved they know nothing about accounting standards on Burford) this is a buy and future bag.

Exactly. Why hold 20% short ahead of a 'zama rerate'. The sealion project may need more equity..that is my guess. Not saying pmo is a bad company but please have some left in reserve in case. I have been in and out of this for years.

I know the given reason....hedging the bonds...I don't buy that sorry. You already out rank the equity. Something else going on

Starting to wonder if they are short ahead of a placing that they think will bring down the buyback price. 20% short is insane.

Unleash the Kraken...$200m buyback, plus as many Dir vuys as they like. A fair war chest...question is which of those other hedge funds who are short knew this report was coming...will they now capitulate or fight on...we shall see..but the buying we saw into close yesterday may have been short covering

MW have picked this for a short based on the share price graph. Almost identical swift rise in SP over the last 5 years or so - less track record so allows them to spread the doubt more. The leases point is mute - prior to changes in IFRS operating leases were never on the balance sheet anyway. A share buyback requires cash - you can't fake strong cash generation - so I can dismiss this attack without much worry. With the nature of operations, sector growth and current interest re: t/o for me this is a great buying opportunity. Revisit in 12 months and there will be profit IMO

Shorts have destroyed faith here to the extent people are scared to buy on improved fundementals...they have played a blinder tbh

Take a step back reaper..if you are short here you are already risking obliteration on a bid RNS. Had your fair warning. II Shorts closed 170p-200p so tells me bottom is in here. Playing with fire for little gain..

Money gonna flow into this next week...anyone short is likely going to get caught....be we shall see

Eco up 8%

Thoughts on this stock?

Thanks Greg