Member Info for Thunder2040

As strong as I thought, PBT down 11% which isnt too bad resillient growth and impairements at lower end of guidance. Throwing off cash. Surely with the FCA review complete this now has to rerate higher.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/amigo-told-to-spell-out-risks-of-guarantor-loans-2llmnxvb9

Excellent news re: FCA review, validates the product and business model. Hopefully a good set of results tomorrow and thid is going back over £1

Battletations gents. Prepare for launch..

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Supermajor-Looks-To-Dump-25-Billion-In-Oil-And-Gas-Assets.html

Exxon is bullish on Guyana - can't help but think the Tullow story will come good there as well. At a minimum plenty of infrastructure will be built which is only going to boost the attractiveness of drill licenses

Good luck with that then

I respect you as an investor tbh, you don't forget the golden rule, you buy low and sell high - everything inbetween is noise

Why did you sack off PMO MRD? I think Tullow is the racier, bigger, faster model tbh.

Also - what put a rocket under POO tonight?

Tullow mentioned in BBC article re: labour proposal for windfall tax on UK oil sector...correct me if I am wrong but I didnt think tullow still had producing assets in UK?

My filter was already on haha. Some people don't like us making wedge MRD - its that simple.

Haha , Leem I agree, totally insane reaction also is the sulphur content definitely so high this oil won't be pumped?

Quote from FT article from a while ago:

'Reckitt said it would pay the settlement through existing borrowing facilities and from cash generated from the business. The size of the penalty was determined by adding up the sales of Suboxone film to patients on Medicaid and Medicare from 2010 to 2014.'

So applying that logic what would a settlement be post 2014 for Indivior?

What I still can't get my head around with the conpany here is how inprecise the legal case against them seemed to be, making only vague distinctions between RB and Indivior. Also how can there be no interaction or impact from the RB settlement!?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-11/reckitt-s-1-4-billion-opioid-settlement-offers-some-relief

Surely the majority of the incidents occured on RB's watch and the settlement made covers most of what Indivior were liable for?

Just think it smacks of a cash grab here and can't understand why the doj are being so awkward.

Just my opinion.

I am more interested in the slight production decrease...what impact does that have on earnings? Not over 30% reduction like the share price so this is well overdone. 3 day rule...price stabalised...now a buy from me. GL all

Shorts closing, no bad news...and still some of you moan. This is way too cheap at current prices.

Looking at the morning spike in price I would guess more shorts closed today.

Would also add on D4E point, that interserve had net debt of £700m and Carillion way more than that at point of rescue/collapse, whereas Kier has forecast net cash after sale of non core assets.

At a forward p/e of 2.5 times, a £200m debt conversion to equity would dilute by circa 60% at current market cap, which would still give a forward p/e of well below 10 and net cash. As I said, this is not a comparable situation.

You don't bag off buying shares that have no risk. Your spin on things is credible but I disagree on a few key points - time will tell which of us is correct!

Old article but I would recommend you look at this:

https://www.tussell.com/insights/is-kier-the-next-carillion

It is clear to me that Kier is no Carillion but some people have decided it is and you seem to be one of them which is your choice. I would also ask that for the benefit of other readers you consider divulging if you are long, short or have no position?

I am long from 85p.

Thanks

Well I would prefer a measured sale at best price rather than throwing off assets at distressed prices...so not bothered by delay. If you listened to the last investor call you will know that the pension liability novation requires approval from the scheme trustees amongst other things.

Well I always respect another investors view when it is as well written as that, but surely you assume a further deterioration in cash and/or profit. I don't as the composition of the order book is very different to Carillion. Projects in Kier are smaller, lower value and shorter duration, which means you can rationalise a lot quicker. HSBC rebutted the article about selling the debt - if they want the best price, why deny they are selling and starve themselves of demand? D4E is a risk but if the board are worth their money that is a last resort.