Member Info for Thunder2040

With all such companies, very high profit margin, so revenue to mcap not the metric to follow

The IPO prospectus did flag the Naira issue in Nigeria tbf, just checked. Also, FY 22 revenue £109m PAT £33m. So based on the revised guidance, expected FY 23 revenue now circa £131m. If that is 17% below previous guidance, so must have guided £158m. So it does seem odd that £27m could be lopped off the guidance for this issue alone...perhaps the guidance was overcooked to get the IPO away higher..most likely imo. Would be interested to see how much they had scales up the cost base prior to this shock and therefore what y/e profit will now be...but they do say they are still highly profitable

I also think some of the reported RNs figures have been mis analysed...they will miss guidance by 17% but still grow revenue 20%year on year. Naira income £4.1m in Q2...it's a H2 weighted business 40:60 ...so the tail off now will hit a bit harder but still I fail to see how this business is being marked down so heavily. They have a UK banking license, so all their client money will be fully reconciled daily and segregated...there is no balance sheet risk on transactions unless. This will bounce big in next week or so IMO..brokers don't know what they are talking about is further clouding matters. The EBITDA margin was 56% in H1 cash conversion 95%...

The collapse of the currencies in Africa seems to be the issue but surely there is more to the business than just focussing on these markets

Https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/legal/caliplay-legal-action-playtech-mexico/

The service fee dispute is weighing on this, surely if the fee is €34m per annum and runs until 2034, to end the contract the payment would have to be approx €340m but that is with no growth and is not discounted...anyway, it's a poor move trying to pull out of a contract on the cheap by Caliente imo

Would need a rise of 80% to get back to the 680p bid that was rejected...as it undervalued the business ..since then it's announced record EBITDA and FY should be over €400m, with debt halved in a year...if as an old post suggested the sum of parts is worth €6b this is now deep value territory...surely a predator will strike with the week £ now presenting a huge bargain..hold tight chaps

They did say it would feed to bottom line, but if say 17% of half year revenue of say £100m was all to hit profit I still see they would turn a profit for year based on H1...there is still growth plus cost mitigation too...seems a wild reaction to say the least to me, looking for recovery to mcap of circa £200m in short order

It's trading at an 8th of pre COVID, a 5th post post COVID peak and half of COVID low...how has the fundamental make up of this company changed so dramatically that this is warranted...and do we think interest rates will stay this high forever. I for one think not a change, the contract price increases are lagging wages and interest costs are up but I think next year will be mark a significant turning point

Benj...open market transactions for comparable assets are very relevant for a few years

Whole co. Has forecast fyb23 Ebit of £185m in a bad year, normalised with cost saving and pass through could be £200-£250m plus fwd Ebit. 10x multiple for superior quality to First Group assets would be £2-£2.5b...cuurent approx EV £1.5b with mcap circa £400m so the equity is worth 2-3x current so in comparable whole co take over...the acquirer would for that money be able to completely wipe all debt saving £75m, plus expose itself to material growth in an defensive sector with secured contracted revenue...this gets taken out within 12 months with lowball bid

Https://www.ft.com/content/b0a6483a-807e-4ab5-bedf-0471d695b3f2

9x Ebit, recent comparable sale

Https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/berenberg-lowers-target-price-on-national-express--9640805.html

The pay rises were way too high, cost base is screwed up completely..they they go busy or need to sack people it serves the greedy unions right IMO...I sold and left the moment they made that deal on UK wages... completely ridiculous wage hike

This is trading lower than the height of the pandemic when pubs were closed...how is that even possible

Increased again yesterday, unless they are hedging a bond holding in genel or something it's a very brave move given the expected resumption of oil flows..anyone any idea why they seem so confident?

Sorry for all genuine holders on here, shocking news..hope a solution can be found that allows you to fight another day

Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/32763-PM-Barzani,-top-US-diplomat-address-resumption-of-Kurdistan-Region-oil

My thesis on this share is that a lot of that was baked into share price that had already slid considerably lower, today's move down puts this in the value bucket and a good medium term buy imo...strong history of profit and revenue growth prior to this global slowdown, expanding market, strong balance sheet, fairly recent director buys...fill your boots

Unbelievable retrace

What is going on here today, given news was expecting a push to 100