Member Info for Thunder2040

The 102p has to be code for that is our asking price

'Subject to shareholder approval of the change of strategy, the fund will not make any new investments and will only make further opportunistic investments in existing holdings where, in the view of the board and investment manager, such investment is considered necessary to protect the interests of shareholders and/or provide the investment manager with additional influence to maximise value and facilitate and accelerate an exit. Any such investment will require the prior approval of the board and will only be permitted where it is not expected to compromise the timescale for realisations.' The fundvis projected to divest and close by 31Dec23..so there must be some scope for an offer here else why buy more?

Crystal Amber now over 16%, with Shroders, Aberforth, etc buying they must see a bid on its way. Crystal Amber are winding down their find so can't see them buying this now unless they see an exit of sorts soon?

Was unsure if the Greece wildfires news would hit this..but only a modest few percent is not much to worry about

Media.monks Glassdoor reviews make for interesting reading - I started to have some suspicions about the whole model last week so luckily missed the drop - the issue with ad men is they can't be trusted to tell it straight, so not sure which way the wind is blowing here

Why did this one retrace back down from 200p anyway, that in itself seems like a mispricing, should be on the way up back to nearer the 400-500p mark based on projected EBITDA

As I said - something off, probably lack of shareholder returns, taking the debt down is one thing but a dividend is also with considering

Given there was a bid over 100p in last few years, there is a recent transaction on the Carlsberg JV that hints at valuation for the brewery and disposals have been at circa 40% above book value.. can't really understand what on earth is going on with the share price here. Vast majority of debt is securitized at moderate rates...just not sure what the market is expecting here that I can't see. Conservative value should be circa 60p imo

Wetherspoons further supporting that view today up 9%..this is due a re rate soon

Seems shocking sentiment at the moment, surely getting looked at for a takeover at this price?

Agreeing to a 16%+ payrise with no increase in prices was commercial suicide...the reason it's going down is margin pressure + huge debt, the dividend now looks premature..so I really think they might need to sell American buses

The other thing that I think is lost here is that when the ring fenced cash and deposits are converted to earnings, at year end, the cash is going to be up at about £70 or £80m imo, which gives the true enterprise value of about £90- 100m ex cash for EBITDA of circa £35m..it's too cheap

You can see what sales are going to be by how much cash they put onto deposit at interim, huge increase Vs last year..only unknown is the margin..they are staking a lot on going short merely on the hypothesis there is margin pressure...the front load of marketing was entirely logical and balance sheet is solid...in my view now demand seems to be affirmed across sector they will close within 2 months

WotldQuant heavily shorting at rock bottom SP into rising demand - very odd short that. Took some today but feel there is more to come from our shorter friends yet

Buys £86k, not a bad figure

My honest views this remains low due to the working capital and lack of profits..nothing coming through has changed this issue, hence remains low

It's good news to win more work but how are they going to fund all the working capital requirements?

I listened to the presentation webcast this evening, congratulatory back slaps all around which all seemed very cosy I must say. They clearly need to target and win a big contract to have any hope of turning this around properly but I don't see the vision there. The CEO failed to even answer a basic question if what the addressable market size was for GRS...should have known this instantly, unstead got a load of waffle.

The assets are worth way more than mcap in the right hands imo so as you say needs a buy out I think, which may well come given they have basically bought themselves 2 years more time in my view from what I calculate.

I think the main positive I saw was the fy24 currency contracts are in place so limited downside..it's finely balanced but a tempter

Surprisingly little 'pain' in the accounts...if so easy why the delay? Currency market improving but they halved FY 24 operating profit guidance from £40m to £20m.

Going Concern issues evaporated? Expect shares will have a massive relief rally but I literally don't trust these guys