Member Info for Thunder2040

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Middle-East-Oil-Prices-Soar-Amid-Chinese-Trading-Frenzy.html

Sooner or later tightness of physical will take over from paper shorts and oil will go strongly through 90 IMO..who is switching the air con off this summer is Asias...no one..recession or not.

Jefff I think pemex is bankrupt, they don't have money to develop fields themselves..plus the UK is about to become a case study for how to crash oil revenue through over taxing

On the latest Talos investor presentation it says us peers trade off 4x EBITDA, and Talos is well below this. Harbour listing in US could double the value here IMO. Also want to know how much Viking CCS is actually worth, as Talos have 1.7b tonnes of capacity...interesting times.

Still below placing price and 6% down on the month, frankly this should now rip through towards about £6 now, even lower free float than before after frasers buys

2.2% of company changing hands in 2 trades with no price movement..interesting. Also wondering why Pictet are increasing short so much all of a sudden.. many things going on here

The supplier insurance story was scare mongering, as with a lot of recent press it's favoured the shorts, but fundementals here indicate they are wrong and about to be burnt

Ytd drop in revenue is 9%..as I said look at the trend in P3, declines are slowing overall

-overall a good statement, no hiding, lot of detail, hopefully stops the vicious rumours

- details on ageing profile of stock very useful and proves that the quality is there to trade through

- huge leap in profitability 30% up year on year..profitable now

- as per appendix 2 on constant currency basis sales decline you has lessened or remained static for US..implies to me that the sales decline is stabilising with revenue still higher than pre pandemic

Exact same time they just start the algos on boohoo and this, frankly very predictable and they are going to get burnt

Pretty obvious why they turned down the loan from Ashley as he could have it callable, hence exetering control over more decisions than 5% of shares would have warranted on paper..my annoyance here is them keeping the approach before Xmas quiet, probably because it didn't suit the big holders plans - they can't be allowed to take private for any less now else looks very dodgy

Hanging my hat on the basis their channels are strong enough to clear stock..the overheads have been cut back too

They did a deal with secret sales where they can fulfil the sale using their network and distribution but sell the inventory up front to get it off the balance sheet...smart deal

The debt went up, as it's locked in the huge inventory pile. Honestly very poor on previous management to let it build like that, but new CEO is all over it. Even with the forecast sales decline it's still turning over more than pre COVID, if stock was lower the share price would be north of £10 easy

Yeah, perhaps envisaged a surge in sales and then inflation and cost of living hit. Also read Nike had a similar slissue where supply chain unblocked leaving them with too much stock too fast...either way the new guy has done everything textbook in terms of addressing the issue, even to the point of taking the discounts off-site to lessen brand degregation. I was trying to work out the loss they might take on clearing the other £200m surplus but too difficult, the stuff they impaired already with the £130m will be the worst stuff, the next batches of surplus probably still worth a bit, just needs to get it out of the door, and get the cash in now...inventory should be on about £850m at year end, with the sales declines, it needs to get to about £650m imo...inventory days of about 120

The biggest issue here is the inventory level got too high...if management are true to their word and it falls 20% you by finals, I calculate it would need to fall another £200m to be normalised. ASOS has historically carried a higher level of inventory than the likes of Boohoo. They need to focus on selling down the stock and the £75m raise should allow them room to do that at a discount, off-site, which again is the right approach. We are basically at the very beginning of the turnaround but once inventory is cleared that is very little 'wrong' with ASOS, hence it's a one off hit, that has nearly brought the shop down, but I see it surviving and recovering.

Read the thoughts of other investors on this matter with interest...closed period or AB et al are so annoyed with EPL that they are sinking no more funds into this...could not quite decide. Still feel like this is being held back by the debt, unfairly I may add - it just seems too cheap on every metric so I must have missed something

If someone was to come in with a bid, realistically what price would we expect they pay. I valued the tax losses at about £750m being difference of 25% vs 65% retained cashflow on $2.4b this excludes the other $1b of losses mentioned by co. Current net debt I believe to be $678m / £550m. Total future freecashlow without using tax losses to offset or debt payments maybe £700m. Gives me £900m, execution risk of all above for acquirer 50%, say £450m or 28p a share - 75% premium to current sp...apologies if that is very basic but interested to hear thoughts on this given the sector consolidation at present.

Gross margin was still over 50%, ASOS was nearer 40%...boohoo cut inventory 36% with smaller loss too...think this will do fine over next few years, especially as it's catering for cheaper end of market anyway.

Net asset value (NAV) per share of £0.98 (H1 FY2022: £0.71)

· £24.3 million generated from non-core strategic disposals to date at 39% ahead of net book value, with disposals totalling £50-60 million anticipated in FY2023

Read the interim results RNS, the property sold this year was for 39% above book value. They got bid on at 105p not so long ago. I agree it's an option value but downside is limited from here IMO as simply getting too cheap now