Member Info for Thunder2040

Could not sell a bean today, clearly mm's and it's filling big orders ...really expected better on all this news, CEO has lost trust of market is my conclusion...can only be recovered through profitable trading and cut out the unexpected costs they keep dropping in to most updates

Can we afford to buy them out? Not sure how to financing will go but perhaps the London ii roadshow is something to do with this

Rampers, derampers ..facts remain 100usd gives you an idea how cheap the EV is...under £300m for how much production next year, like 20+ ...it's stupid, SP can double and still be cheap Vs peers

Roxi did you have a triple espresso this morning? Lol. After recent weeks I just keep thinking a big dump will start whenever this moves...would love to be proved wrong of course

They limit lot size quite often on aim stocks...I have no confidence this is moving north until TR1 drops to say seller is out

Surely the whole business model of acquiring mature assets is the infill drilling though?

Basically the acquisition cost is over half our mcap...lol..stupid valuation

Biggest stand out to me here is the priced paid for this aqui Vs our own valuation...wtf is our mcap actually about now🤣

Malaysia now producing nearly as much as Montara..with finan infill maybe more...yet share price still in doldrums. With Akatara they will have 3 circa 6k producers and a fourth mixture off assets about the same...so well diversified going forward...price here remains low and now apparent that trust in board is still lacking..but sooner or later this looks too cheap and wil re rate imo

The next six months is simple equation for me. If oil stays around 80, they keep Montara online and get first gas at Akatara this is a double your money...if any of those factors does not come to pass it's tough again...but at mcap of about £160 m plus perhaps debt of £100m you are going to get 23k of production..so 1/3 or 1/3 of FB currently imo

Incredibly awkward interview style but some good points from Sir Martin

But really...what will remain is a loss making enterprise and high debt post disposal...not sure how you can buy with that

The big headline loss was due to H1 really, it's just getting aired a second time here. The worst part of the whole results is saying sales will fall 5-15% on FY2024..as that implies nothing has changed and on a downward spiral.

Https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/holiday-bookings-expected-to-return-to-pre-covid-levels-with-autumn-surge

I am more astounded that the board have accepted the share price decline with no follow up RNS, for buys etc...that started to imply to me and market that this is FV

There was a investor call after the RNS...the transcript or recording not available did anyone dial into that?

The issue is lopping £27m off the revenue forecast and blaming 1 quarter...that quite honestly does not stack up...if they just issued an RNS to clarify it would probably sort this

If you watch the H1 results presentation and Q&A you get the idea their business is highly specialised in operating in alternative emerging markets but has a pretty complex business under the hood....it also has volatility.

The prospectus had shed loads of info tbh, including the forecast growth rate, costs, margins etc

The FY 22 PAT was £33m with one of charges of £5m included. So £38m reoccurring. On £109m revenue for FY22 that is a net margin of 35%. On 20% uplift to FY22 revenue for FY23 that would give revenue of £131m and PAT of circa £46m. They will have scaled up costs but really how can this have been punished this badly? Is my maths out or is there some huge cost base expansion that we don't know about? I think it's a poor explanation for the pulled revenue guidance but not enough was said about the fact they are still growing 20% yoy and should take it in on previous margins achieved! A claryfying RNS could rerate this significantly