Member Info for Thunder2040

Apologies on the FX oversight, I do agree, needs to more than double to just value the capex contribution for the carry

If the total capex for development is $900m and JOG has 20% carry...that itself is worth $180m...disregarding the actual profits from production, other milestone cash payments and other licenses...so why is the Mcap about £80m...it's nuts this

Based on the pre production capex jog's share is worth double the current mcap...then they have future profits from production, plus cash payments for farm out...the share price should double imo

Did it actually print an UT today?

Extended auction?

About where it was in Sept without the deal, doesn't stack up...must go higher surely?

What is the tawke depletion rate like, how many years production is left? I am not sure prices received for local sales can cover capex indefinitely..but it's far better than nowt. I had mistakenly thought that recovery by DNO was a quarter not a month ..thanks for that info. the Bina Biwa arbitration hearing could add a chunk to amounts owed to Genel, I was elsewhere when the cancelled that contract but it is a very odd one...feel like with the arb and fact Genel are not operator on tawke and talk of looking for assets elsewhere whether Genel are out of favour in Kurdistan with powers that be.

Looking good here this morning..not.

If they pull their finger out in negotiations and do a deal and convert the production sharing contract to profit share agreement we should be off to the races...but some very impatient sellers out there today...I also wonder if we will ever see the amounts owed for previous oil supplied

Granted it's not a sure thing but each to their own..I like big director skin in the game usually. My read is the deal if agreed will be cost plus $6 dollar a barrel or more...matter of time I should hope..you pays your money you take your chances

But unlikemany he is not day trading which tells me what I need to know

I think you are talking twiddle re: the oil..in genel for example why are insiders buyers buying up all the shares at these levels, just to lose money? I think not

It's stupid really, it's like vote this through for 80% loss..which is the current share price Vs what it was pre this deal announcement... ridiculous really...could go back to previous bidder and say take us for about an 8th of what you offered a year ago lol...it's the £300m loss that caused this, very poor show to basically spring that on everyone

Why anyone would vote this deal through is beyond me too...they say the company will fold without it...can that be true given the equity raise and other bid recently, or do they want to scare people into approving it so they can jump ship?

Ok, not sure what you want here...if you want answers ask the board

I am hoping Brickell and Randall team up and buy the lot - a split deal seems worse for shareholders

Yeah I agree, but also, if it goes through, you still own shares in a company that we are told will be profitable in 2025, and if it doesn't, someone will step in to buy the business...you cant tell me the combined lot is now going for £40m when a year ago it was £400m..granted there was the legacy loss but still enough value here that I am interested

I am not here to convince you to buy or otherwise, I said my piece on my I think there is value, you pay your money you take your chance

Well like you said if they are running away why buy now? It's not the correct directorship that would be involved with a counter bid it's Randal and shareholders...plus a close period extends to if there is any material market information that dirs are privy too...so any negotiation on bidding or approaches..but I think that is not relevant anyway as you correctly stare, the current board are in bed with this current bid

I suspect it's a closed period for buying under bids but don't quite me on that...I look at value of capital raises, past bids, and now shareholders adding down here plus talk of Randal trying to get financing together to bid and it all looks like current price is too low...I could be wrong of course, like you say the elephant in the room is the legacy losses, the last set of results was terrible...was that all or not...we don't truely know was PIs

Legacy does have net assets though, so my take, if they expected more writedowns why not reflected, talk it all up for the sale. With the capital contribution for accredited it is like a £200m bidwhich is too low for a profitable growing business - I think a counter bid is in the offing