Member Info for Thunder2040

Keeptofacts - DEWA development costs will be a lot higher than £600k? Jadestone operate in SE Asia and were able to finance a gas plant with the help of an RBL facility linked to current production..given Seascape has no production yet I'm unsure if they can get a RBL as easily, but Enquest have cash so some earn out or similar could also be floated.

You talk a lot of sense, but what the current government has failed to grasp is just how mobile a lot of industries, companies and workers are in this day and age. They have completely failed to compare the proposed UK tax regime post budget to other jurustictions and will suffer badly due to that. The damage regarding the north sea oil and gas sector has been done now with the uncertainty and UK taxpayers will foot the bill when production dries up. Harbour Energy are now looking to sell their UK assets and list in the US. There will be a lot of stranded assets for sale at knock down prices which hurts the Buchan development case. If you look at what is available here in terms of the Buchan asset and farm out versus say what Seascape Energy have ( now based in Malaysia with Enquest onboard), investing in the UK north sea makes little sense IMO. I hope allowances are retained but even then with NEO board changes and possible change of ownership the Buchan project is still uncertain enough that I reconsidered this one.

Eco Atlantic recently farmed out a block in South Africa to Total and Qatar Energy and got $32m cash in staggered payments, retaining 6.25% fully carried. I think Seascape should be pushing for less cash and keep a higher stake, as guided 15%. As to how much cash, it depends on what the plan for funding the DEWA development cost, but that is almost certainly going to require a debt instrument.

I've taken a position. If you read between the lines a lot of orders will hit in 2025 by which point the operational issue should be fixed. Target price £1.60

Unfortunately over recent days I have turned decidedly more negative on JOG and other north sea oilers. Almost all producers are now shelving investment and moving. Given NEO is potentially for sale, I think there will be many producing assets available soon..which makes me wonder if anyone actually wants to spend $1b developing new assets given the loss of allowances. I unfortunately made the assumption of labour at least being logical but seeing all the mad tax grabs rumoured I think they will actually go through with a full removal of allowances.

Https://www.ft.com/content/6434f9d1-87bd-44c4-ab34-ee641399b670

Excluding cash on hand, Jog is currently valued at circa £6m. Like you said, tax losses alone worth £28m.

Dick, the scope 3 isn't a concern for me tbh. As if we are bet importers and the oil is imported and burned the total emissions is higher. So categorically the emission level of Buchan can't be beaten and the oil equivalent will be used in the UK..even if sold it's displacing other high emission oil in the market. Analysts I follow say similar

I think many have underestimated how long it will take for the policies to fail..within a year then maths will have gone bad, so I don't think we will have to wait as long as you think

A few thoughs.

The higher tax could be designed to shut down the oil without legal challenges that come with bans.

The budget will cripple the UK economy, bonds will throw a wobbler, unions will strike in north sea, government will cave or no confidence vote.

Trump will win in the US.

Virtue signalling will end in disaster here.

Milliband seems to me at least, slightly unhinged...if we use more than we produce and imports are higher emissions than UK production on what basis would we not drill our own to produce less carbon? I would love to ask him that question directly...I have seen no rationale explanation for it

If Buchan with some of the lowest emission production in the world can't get built whilst we import from elsewhere I think you have to question what labour are trying to achieve really..the unions should act if this budget is as expected

Frankly that is daylight robbery at 40p...not sure if I agree with that

It's too late for selling

Slowing the investments seems to make more sense in light if this news. Not sure where it leaves Buchan...I've read it's the best undeveloped field in the UK, so if it can't be developed there truly is a problem with this government

30% my guess, that short is going to get smoked too haha

Congrats to all holders, I sold a while ago but glad to see good news

If they were actually going to spend all this tax grab on growth fine but huge chunks are just to give out public sector pay rises..it's going to end in utter disaster this budget. Just crippling the tax base for future generations. Evoke call I'll afford this proposed tax, it's a disaster if it goes through and just when things had started to look up. I despair with UK stocks

This has bottomed out now imo, my target is 90p. Expect this to hit 50p in short order. If revenue actually starts growing 90p. Strong NAV, strong cash, lower intangibles than historically. Huge discount to NAV. Huge insider buying. Small free float. Frasers. It's got the lot this set up

38.52 40.98

What kind of games are MMs pulling with this every day