Member Info for Thunder2040

Begs the question is someone playing this. Because I don't think anyone is dim enough to sell at this price unless they are suppressing the price for some other reason.

Forward p/e is 3 and I predict circa ££150m me cash. Ex net cash on hand forward p/e of circa 2. Entire EV paid back in 2 years, 8 years of 2p left. Lol. It's lunacy

Something more to this imo. Selling at current price makes no logical sense to almost any investor unless something is afoot. Not sure what exactly is going on here but I am suspicious

Https://www.ft.com/content/ea6ffc49-47c7-4107-b94a-d56ba6370f47

“We see the market as more than discounting the impact of windfall taxes, with c.95 per cent of the current market cap generated in free cash flow across 2024-26 at our $70-a-barrel oil price forecast,” said Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton, not an advocate for Labour’s North Sea policies. 

Again, why falling 10% in a week is beyond me now

My basecase is a structured run down of UK assets to maximise profits and return to us. I think private equity are quite capable of doing the maths as were the brokers...so it could get bid on for that purpose. I think once you have that as your default position you can invest here happily and see a healthy return. The selling today is shorters or panic and it's irrational as under the worst case of an oil crash this will still make even more money with no epl lol. So it's basically illogical to sell this now

I mean or just wind it down, I think they key thing missing is the directors have bought big and the terminal value is far higher than current share price suggests

P/s is a poor metric to compare given request EV is comprised if a higher debt element. Both are too cheap but Serica has option to pivot away from UK imminently

This is being shorted now, seen it before

That is why I bought in. They are able to execute a pivot is my view and projected future discounted cashflow of UK assets with tax losses is sufficient to make the current price an opportunity for savvy investors. The tax regime cannot go more punitive without causing huge issues to the national budget from the already announced measures. So yeah. It's obviously a bit concerning but I feel it's worth holding this for a recovery once they move away from UK which is nailed on imo

It's also fairly irrelevant here now. This is priced accordingly so any further decline today is just a buying opportunity. The current price is a gift because it's pricing Serica as though Buchan is the only growth project available..it's clearly not. Once it is replaced with a new plan outside of UK Serica will re rate back to £2 imo

I can see the bond market throwing a tantrum very soon regarding all these labour policies. If the study is true and it's £13b less tax revenue plus a load of unemployed the ability of UK to make good on debt is going to get called into question sooner than people think.

Deep value play here, much the same as most north sea oilers. Market is completely broken in the UK...fear of government over regulation has it trading about 50% of FV given the profit metrics..being a citizen is like being involved in a slow motion car crash. Politicians simply not the best we have yet we elect them to make the decisions. Until that stops and we start rewarding acumen and intelligence we will continue to stagnate. My view on Serica is managed wind down of all UK operations is required, it's a banana republic with better returns and stability elsewhere. I hope they buy into Norway or further afield and leave UK waters ASAP.

It would be a phenomenal deal because they can save so much on interest payments if they halved the debt say...with Playtech b2b EBITDA added on the leverage would be very low and it would be a 2b+ mcap business...they can basically double their B2C revenue, diversify into more markets and have money left over for a special dividend if they so chose. I really can't see what else they would do with the cash unless they have other bid targets

I find it fascinating that Qube continue to short despite the potential for Playtech to come back with £2b cash burning a hole in their pocket should Snaitech be sold. The more I think about it the more a merger of the two makes complete sense to me and a chance to realise far higher value than current depressed level.

On a cagr of 13% market should be circa €1.6b by 2026. With 7% that's £100m revenue a year..could expect them to double their market share with new scale and product knowledge..so perhaps net £100m or £20m EBITDA to evoke going forwards. A small but solid acquisition. Given how immaterial it is, reasonable that directors were still buying imo

I am keeping a close eye on draftkings share price.. rising towards $40 again. Will the Playtech transaction flush out a bid from DK..after all the reason cited for them not bidding last year was the license review which was resolved.

So Andrew Byles says reject 68p cash, back TXP share bid at equivalent of 45p and then sells some shares for 57p...can't make this up. Just baffling

That one was £200kish I think? Yeah the size of these buys dictates they are not messing about here...pe formance or bid will re rate this to about 150p/200p

They are the uncrossing trade marked UT

I am also of that opinion re: another Playtech approach, they could go hostile with the amount of cash they have. If they sold Snaitech and got Evoke they basically get to double their B2C revenue and they also supply the software for the online too...so there are synergies. They can also wipe a large chunk of debt.

Do you have a link for peel hunt's take on it?