Member Info for Thumper1127

In that case your flight out was just shy of 95% load factor!! And as I say, in February!!! Only a snapshot I know but very encouraging. Domestically, on the Southampton/Glasgow route I monitor m, yesterday’s flight was sold out with 24 hours to go; not the first time I’ve seen this on that route. It is quite clearly a good regional addition.

GLA

@Prime. 21 empty seats? So assuming it was a 320 that’s still a load factor of around 89%, not bad for the first week in February!!!

GLA

@Xhita. Re Wizz, I was only suggesting that they could take a drop today, I wasn’t offering a view on their long term prospects. Looks like I could be totally wrong (good!!) on EZJ taking a bit of a drop but the day is young. I’m fully into EZJ as I’m sure you know.

GLA

I expect some profit taking but if we close the day at 520 or above I’ll be happy. Wizz must surely take a drop today after such a big rise yesterday (got a small holding there, in profit thankfully).

GLA

I’m certainly happy with my three small top ups in the last 10 days or so at an average of 488.

GLA

Yes. You can see it in the EZJ News today. Always worth keeping an eye open on the News button.

Sub 495 just triggered a small top up for me. Seems rude not to. Unfortunately I didn’t have £11m down the back of the sofa!

GLA

My Chicken Curry with Fried Rice lasted less than 15 minutes!! Onto the prawn crackers now to see how long they last!!! If I’m not sated in an hour I’ll try the Indian goods for quality and longevity!!

GLA

@Xhita. Yes, city centre to city centre is the key attraction. Pricing uses yield management much more in the UK than in Europe as a rule. Today London to Newcastle fares range from £63 to £116 based on a single operator.

Similar to airlines, you can get some really cheap advance fares.

GLA

@Xhita. Traditionally 3 hours is the tipping point where rail starts to encroach on air. It has long been used in the Uk but some evidence suggests that three and a half hours is now the norm. It depends on other factors of course (frequency etc.). When the east coast main line was accelerated to 125mph running in the 80’s, meaning sub three hours Newcastle/London it effectively all but killed air. Likewise west coast mainline Manchester/London with circa 2 hours (with a 20 minute frequency).

GLA

@Prime. Have you ever considered improving your method by reading your potato peelings. Add in a vodka index and you could be on a winner!

GLA

Forward pricing trivia

I occasionally do snapshot checks on forward ticket prices on the Southampton/Glasgow route. I use this route as it is local to me and relatively new, as well as being evidence of how new regional flows can form a part of the expanding business. The method is simple and crude. Using the app I just look at the proportion of daily fares advertised in green, deemed to be low fare, against those in black which, typically (on this route at least) means they are £46 + and hence bookings are looking good. So for February it stacks up at:

A total of 22 flights of which:

2 are green (low)

20 black (91%) (“healthy”)

Average fare is £77.60

11 (50%) are > £75

7 (32%) are > £90

A crude litmus test but interesting (to me anyway!)

I’ll post March etc later.

This is the limited of my TA method (Thumper Analysis!)

GLA, here. Hoping we at least stay above 500 for week end.

An interesting article, thanks for posting.

GLA

People have to do what’s right for them. I’m holding.

@Xhita. I agree, that’s why I only gave it a glancing look yesterday and it didn’t really register enough for me to post it yesterday/today to the extent I had to ask others whether I had indeed seen it!

Thanks Crossley, so I wasn’t dreaming that EZJ had no plans to fly from LCY! Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t reconsider though!

If anyone has access to The Sunday Times for yesterday could they check re the 320 Neos and London City; I’m sure I fleetingly read that EZJ were not interested but I could be wrong; I paid little attention as the key thing was the proposal to authorise 320s to use the airport so if and until that happens it seemed irrelevant (I have limited grey matter to store everything I read and the fog of a good few single malts in the interim may have jumbled my head!).

@Garone. Yes, a very good write up and quite reassuring for the LTHs. I hoping for an up on the SP this week of course but if there are any drops below 480 I’m armed and ready for another small top up.

As Primetime says, pretty standard to try to stimulate business at the quietest time of year. Not that it seems to apply to Southampton to Glasgow (a route I price monitor amongst others). Cheapest seats today are £201, next Thursday £149 and next Sunday £244 (kerching!). This route, only launched about two years ago, seems to be doing very well. Forward prices into February/March already looking respectable at this stage.

GLA

@MikeS02. Thanks for your civilised response and for the link.

In your reply to Xhita you made an interesting comment re interest on savings/bonds which has a resonance with me but for a different reason. A few years ago I first got into shares precisely because inflation nudging 10% or so and my savings were earning a pittance (before later increases in savings rates mitigated it a bit). I saw my savings being eroded and thought the time had come to finally bite the bullet and take the plunge into shares. So a proportion of my savings were then diverted to shares. I’d followed EZJ for years and at the time the SP dropped below £3 and with my limited knowledge I jumped in. My first main tranche was at about £2.76 and I quickly topped up as it started to rise. I also put a much smaller amount in Wizz and should have got out when I’d doubled my money but didn’t; I’m still in profit there but not by much (I think my average is about 1406). To my eternal regret I nearly added some IAG when they dropped below £1 but hesitated as I didn’t want too much in one sector; how I rue that now! I’ve added EZJ over 16 separate small top ups (a few purchases made in haste for FOMO) and am now averaging about 368 (need to recalculate follow two small top ups this last week). So EZJ have done great for me and I feel I have enough headroom now to keep adding when there are big drops. I’m down a bit on Whitbread but it was a small investment. But overall my venture into shares has been a good decision, far outweighing what I’d have got with savings.

The irony is that as interest/saving rates later rose I was able to secure a two year ISA at 5.5% so transferred in some low earning ISAs and added some cash. That matures this September.

It’s horses for courses of course and in the last few years I’ve either been lucky or savvy - probably a bit between TBH!

Good luck everyone, we all have to do what we think is right.

Now, off to buy that lottery ticket!