Member Info for Thompi

Bojo, try post 14161 on the ADVFN board and agree I trust the poster, who is excellent (SK & AS are the same person)

A good post from SK on the ADVFN board -

“Regarding tomorrow, what I am looking out for (and in some cases the information may well come out in the presentation rather than the RNS) is the following:

1. Either the ovarian headline data or a statement that it is expected to be release shortly (e,g, a commitment to October)

2. News on how partnerships and collaboration discussions are progressing post FDA, e.g. with Abbott and / or others, along with the general strategy for the same - this one is likely for the presentations and Q&A

3. Updates on contracts and revenues - note that this is H1, which was largely pre-fda, so I'm not expecting anything major here - hopefully H1 revenues up to £0.4m with positive comments on the number of contract negotiations that are underway.

4. End H1 cash of at least c£20m - give or take 10% (note there is an additional £20m gross raised in the July 2022 placing to add to this), so I'm looking for confirmation that they have cash through to 2024.”

One way or another things will surely be a lot clearer after tomorrow’s two presentations.

Actually Phantom, I think it is being headed by Richard G Moore, MD University of Rochester (NCT02781272). But I take your point about impartiality. The fact remains though, based on guidance AN has given, that the results are overdue.

I don’t know Phantom. I had assumed that AGL would have much more control of the analysis of the data and releasing the results? But not the Clia Lab Accreditation which is “in hand” but pending the study results? Either way, they have had three months since the study completion to analyse the data.

Clearly events and the poor market conditions have conspired against AGL. But they also haven’t helped themselves, especially with the lack of the ovarian results. Where the heck are they? They were due H1 (RNS 13th January), then mid summer and now here we are the end of September and we still haven’t got them.

I think a lot of us were expecting some positive news prior to the presentations. AN is cutting it a bit fine if we are to get any by the 29th.

I agree FTM & Dibs with what you both say. I will also add that the Ovarian study results are frustratingly overdue, considering they were due to be released H1.

I’m intrigued as to why AN has scheduled two presentations for the 29th. I am taking it as a positive, hopefully good news is imminent and at least the Shares presentation gives PI’s the opportunity to ask questions.

Thanks JT, for such an interesting detailed, researched and referenced summary.
It is very helpful in lots of ways and I think will be particularly useful for any new investors as well as many that are invested all ready.

Evening FTM, “Contrary to what AN may think, next week is going to be incredibly important for his credibility and that of the company. If he fails the test, then he has to go.”
I agree that next week is “incredibly important”. It’s been a torrid few months since FDA approval. I have added today & yesterday in an attempt to try and bring my average down, both in the red. I have kept the faith but it is a big week next week for AN and also for me and what I do next with my investment in AGL.
Let’s hope AN plays a blinder.

I guess DG & JH have long since reconciled themselves to losing their share options which are due to expire this year on the 16th October.

If I have understood right they each have 36,860,000 options with an exercise price of between 4-10p. Hmmm, I can’t see that happening before October.

(Soup, would you mind correcting me if I have got that wrong)

Great post Rxdav. I lost a friend through cancer. It was horrible to see a vivacious, lovely woman at the end reduced to a shadow of her former herself. The chemo prolonged her life. But its not just the major side effects, it’s the cumulative effect of all the little ones as well which make the last few months of people’s lives almost intolerable. The piles, the itchy sores, the lack of appetite where all food tastes horrible….
She signed a waiver for an experimental treatment, and it did add months to her life, but sadly it couldn’t mitigate the side effects.

I like your post Toukankahmoon. I guess if I had terminal cancer there would be a strong chance, if I was offered AVA6000, I would want to give it a go.

I think for those who came down hard on Riesgo, you have to put his comments into context - he lost his wife as a result of chemo for her Ovarian cancer. No wonder he his impatient for AVA6000 to be fast tracked.

Yes Rxdav, I can’t login to my HL account.

Wonder when the November research day will be announced - “Therapeutics Research Day planned for November 2022 will provide an opportunity for a full update on all programmes including the Affimer programmes.”

I got a third of the way through and had to turn off, it was too depressing. NFX has proved to be a very expensive mistake for me.

It’s been brutal for all my stocks too Magoo so I sympathise. The good thing about OO is that we are making a profit, have a solid orderbook with customers who give us repeat business and very importantly we don’t need to go to the market for funding. I bet many AIM companies would love to be in ORPH’s position right now.
Good luck and hope your other stocks pick up.

Having not locked in any profit in the run up to POLX’s CRL and also not top slicing with AGL when they received FDA approval I don’t want to make that mistake again. I am sure many people are familiar with AGL, but for those who aren’t, they are now bumping along at a 52 week low.

I still like AGL and I wouldn’t want to completely exit POLX but the lesson I have learnt (the hard way) is that it never hurts to bank some profit.

I guess the only thing for me is that as Mo has said he will buy, it will be good to see him actually do it. Subject of course to him being allowed to do it. It is seen as a vote of confidence, and a bit like with JS at POLB, it will be a recurring theme until he does and it will be good to put it to bed once and for all.

I respected the way Mo has tried to manage our expectations on how big an investment it will be. There were complaints at the size of CF’s additional buy. I don’t know Mo’s financial situation and it is a private matter.

Even if the SP does dip a bit further it is impossible to time the bottom of the market. Anyone buying in the 10’s imo will look back in the mid term and think they have got an excellent price.

Mo was appointed CEO in February this year, is it possible he genuinely has had very limited opportunities to buy? It’s fair to say Mo has warned us it will not be an earth shattering amount when he does get round to investing.

To anyone who didn’t see the presentation this is Mo’s answer to why he hasn’t bought any shares - “So when the relevant close period will finish I will be buying shares. I have committed to this before this call, so it is just a matter of timing. I do have to pay my bills first and we know what's happening to those. On top of that I do think some of you may be a little bit disappointed with the amount I buy, my net worth is not the same as Cahill. But I will commit to buying these shares in the near future, and as I said before I will do that, but please don't be too disappointed with regards to the pound amount you may see on the register.”

Good solid presentation imo from Mo & Leo. I always find the Q&A one of the most interesting parts, which I thought Mo in particular handled very well. If he doesn’t buy many shares when the closed period ends that’s entirely understandable. He has made it clear he doesn’t have CF’s net wealth, like most of us his priority is probably his mortgage and bills to pay first.

I thought he addressed the issue of lack of II’s well. Hopefully they will come on board.

Still find it hard to fathom CF’s massively optimistic original timelines for the spin-offs. Goodness knows when they will happen. I think Mo has had a hard job in picking up the pieces from CF’s crazy projections, whose credibility in my eyes is seriously shot. But we have some top pedigree blue chip customer’s, with repeat business so the core business looks sound.