Member Info for Therapist

Enquestrians,

Why is the Sunday Times: The Week in the Markets: Risers, suggesting Enquest 10.4% rise is due to "North Sea Deal"? Any clues?

GLAXXX

Enquestrians,

If you've been good then your chimneys should soon be delivering festive cheer in the form of; rising production and oil price. premium product pricing, operators and assets aligned, wells a gushing, Cairn upgrades, stable water cuts (whatever that means) and a frikkin increase in share price!!

Happy Enquistmas all (except the stripper trolls, there's no xmas in hell so get back on the dancefloor),

Thanks for your knowledge and insight,

GLAXXX

Plethorus,

Don't know if they realise full Tapis price but there are nice current graphs here.

https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/international-prices/international-market-watch

Third one down is Tapis v Brent in US$

I hope they do!!

How much of Malaysia production is oil and how much is gas (not that again). Answers on a postcard.

GLAXXX

L7 et al,

Graph shows simple linear trendline based on the three yearly averages. A closer look at smaller fields was the purpose but applied across the board.

Most of the time the company reports in boepd so I include the gas to try and get my predictions as close as possible to those figures.

Lots of gas at Magnus.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rn0a6n7knvlb8j7/Enq.Prod.%20Data%20Jan%2017-Sep19%20-%20Gas%20boepd.pdf?dl=0

GLAXXX

Enquestrians,

This thread touched on decline. I've done this:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/yaopm6qpu77m8g4/Enquest%20Individual%20Site%20Jan%2017-Sep%2019%20BOEPD%20Production%20and%20Trendline.pdf?dl=0

Usual caveat about my predicted boepd figures but it illustartes the trend. Smaller fields mostly in decline withstanding workovers. Magnus and Kraken rising.

Yearly average ignores 0 Values but that is a nicety.

Interesting I think.

GLAXXX

. . .and not even a mention of their newest leisure facility!! Disappointed to say the least.

GLAXXX

Hi NMcLondoner,

18656boepd

GLAXXX

Enquestrians,

For 2020 production I have a spreadsheet to play with. I've looked at 2019 average production thus far, taken out a couple of non scheduled downtime spikes, factored in Kraken improvements, taken out 4 months Heather/Thistle (repairs early 2020), applied 3.5% decline across the board, added new well estimates Kraken, Magnus, Malaysia. All being well I stand by my 79600 boepd estimate whch includes scheduled downtimes and weather issues on a par with 2019 as far as we know.

Same spreadsheet suggest circa 86000boepd October to tie in with Jan-Oct Ops update figures.

My numbers have usually been at the low end so Therapist the Pessimist may have become Therapist the Optimist.

Let's see,

GLAXXX

Hi,

I'll go 79600 boepd average '20 with all known improvements (new wells, sustained high levels) and known setbacks (Thistle, natural decline) factored in.

GLAXXX

GKB,

I'm pretty sure "xxxxxxxx" means "dividends" in a lesser known Swedish dialect.

Fine him!!

y'all.

Looks like Betty Knutsen has slipped under the radar for some Enquest Producer action. Looks like aborted first attempt but coming back for another go.

GLAXXX

GLAXXX

Y'all,

Probably seen this: http://news.esvagt.com/pressreleases/esvagt-and-enquest-sign-multi-year-contracts-for-emergency-response-and-rescue-vessels-2954211 "The contract includes a continued support on the Kraken oil field and Kittiwake and, since December 2019, ERRV duties on Magnus and EnQuest Producer. " Readily reported support vessels but nothing I can find on the shuttle tanker contract to indicate Teekay or Knot ongoing. TK leaving Scapa Flo 20th Dec, Stena Natalita in Rotterdam unloading.Place your bets???

GLAXXX

MO et al,

Hanger 101 Sullom Voe is bedecked with tinsel as we prepare for opening night Christmas Eve. You guessed correctly that I will MD as Santa Claus. Trolls oiled up and ready to go. We're expecting good business as all Enquest staff invited. "Never a Sullen Ho at Sullom Voe".

Bit busy at present, but loving the serious input as ever. Trying to find out how the original Teekay contract got extended to no avail, half an eye on what a Malaysian barrel is worth and for news on Thistle. Always trying to fathom how the proper numbers peeps stack it all up.

I'm not going political on here but everything in my meagre and ill researched portfolio is up except this one, but BoJo is still a class A buffoon and Greta Thunberg will be remembered in the same vein as Jesus and Elvis, and I don't mean being found dead on a cross or a toilet.

GLAXXX

All, It's not BJ or JC we need to worry about it's TK or HK. What's going on? Both of them?
GLAXXXX tomorrow whatever the persuasion.

All,

For those interested.

My BOEPD with estimated shrinkage Jan 18-Sep 19 with bonus +/- 5% traffic lights.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oryc6cmkglzf5i2/Enquest%20OGA%20BOEPD%20with%20Shrinkage%20Jan%2018-%20Sep%2019.jpg?dl=0

It's Friday night and the De-Rampy Team are on soon taking it down where it doesn't belong. Gonna smash it and then cash in hand (and g string) we're on the first Tanker to Sullom Voe. Keep you all posted.

GLA XXX

McLondener,

Same language.

July 52870
Aug 63722
Sep 73350
Oct 86206

So I'm lighter than you H1 but October impact agreed in theory.

L3

As you say my spreadsheet looks at 4 months prior average for predictive purposes but doesn't really look at predicted increase outside that 4 months actual production based on what we now think we know . This is why recent Kraken/Magnus outage and now Thistle downtime would skew the graphs . I'll see if i can create a Therapist predicted line and then post them. If you just like the traffic lights then it probably doesn't matter to you but in the spirit of clarity it does to me.

GLAXXX

All,

Figures from last trading update were Jan-Oct. If I plug them into my model which attempts to shrink OGA figures to meet company info, then I have a rather large production increase forecast for October. Rounding approx, and as an improvement from September, 850 CNS, 9300 NNS & Magnus and 2600 Kraken. Roughly 86k net to Enquest. CNS is highest ever but not a big gain on September, others aren't highest, so just everything firing at same time. I'll stick my neck out but we'll see in the New Year.

GLAXXX

All,

I'm looking at graphs and the Crathes September OGA figure is a massive improvement. Anyone got any knowledge on the longevity of the gush effect and how it might balance from an average this year of good production at 1050 boepdish to the September gush circa 7.5kboepd.

GLAXXX

All,

Enquest

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/enquest

"A quest, mission or search", "An asking".

Clearly "asking" a lot of me as having a rather negative effect on paying university fees which was the admittedly high risk plan. We need the risk laden quest/mission/search to be believable and its a repairer bounce all the way to the party.

Faith brothers and sisters, I think it's more likely to explode than implode but wtfdik. Just a **** load less money and some tidy graphs.

GLAXXX

Hi All,

Sorry about the recent interruptions.

The team know that they are meant to be re-hearsing rather than de-ramping. Get back on the dancefloor you guys, if I've told you once I've told you a million times, the only oil you need to worry about comes in a bottle with a babies face on the front. If we don't get a good return on the latest show; "Strip the body . . .not the assets", then I 'll never have enough for the downpayment on Hanger 101 at Sullom Voe.

What goes down must come up.

Bounce tomorrow. Peace out all.

GLAXXX