From Cairn update and reported Kraken FY19 35,600bopd gross, with no alteration to OGA figures, for Enquest this means with November and December being equal Kraken would be producing 45,639 bopd gross for those months which is 1,780 bopd gross better than highest month ever. If OGA is out in line with the Enquest November update (34,286 bopd gross Jan-Oct) then Kraken is producing at 42,170 bopd gross which would still be second best month ever. Either way the Kraken roared at year end.
We knew that but I thought a bit of reassurance was needed.
I remember the confusion at the Nov 19 Update with regard BOEPD totals. Someone mentioned IR having mentioned a Magnus correction updated in Enquest figures but evidently not OGA. Read a bit of a report explaining unreliability of OGA but is also one of our best sources of data.
Anyhow, looking at the Cairn FY19 Kraken BOEPD figure, that leaves my predicted Kraken producing over 47500boepd for Nov and Dec which is a bit of an ask so I wonder if there has been Kraken data changes also earlier in the year.
My financial model is now mega improved even having decimal points and currencies in the right place!! It's a learning curve. Looking at income I struggle to get to the HY19 £858,000,000 without some additional barrels or a premium to Brent average. With those added I volunteer FY19 $1,646,729,000 income, production 67,070 BOEPD.
I had pencilled a booking at my Sullom Voe strip joint "Enquest Undressed". A certain surprise guest (you know who) well rehearsed to do the dance of the flaming trolls for the delectation of the audience and the shame of his mother.
If invites are extended I'd go crossboard to Avanza Placera as a viking is always entertaining at a **** up.
For some reason I have a "cookie" or similar that takes me straight to Navion Hispania if I open Marine Traffic. She has been at anchor off Gibraltar for about 6 months but is now on the way to Aliaga in Turkey. Unfortunately this might be the last voyage. Google "Aliaga Beaching" and you'll get the drift. I hope the Navion Oceania captain doesn't get confused and go 12 knots into Kraken!!
I concur that sparing a few decimals GKB and I are aligned on BOPD numbers. How one chooses to process those numbers beyond that is a personal choice. Why I choose the route of spreadsheet purgatory I am not entirely sure. Yes, it is educational, but I think secretly it is a penance for having lost so much money should the promised heavenly ascendance not materialise.
I'm going to go a bit Romaron on you now so change channel if you desire (no offence Romaron just not normally this wordy) . .
My Dad was a Merchant Banker. I think on behalf of the bank he lent most of the monies to fund South American mining in the 70's/80's. That financial knowhow meant that I had to balance the books to get pocket money. I'd recommend that these days if there is a quickbooks junior lite out there. Anyhow, despite being able to cook the books and purchase a football comic and texan bar weekly, I remain a self confessed corporate financials virgin and my stumbling efforts are a vain and desperate attempt to understand the whole picture and unearth how the corporate monster body values itself. Christ knows after three years worth of modelling during the Xmas break my cranium was well and truly noodled so forgive me for dropping a few decimals along the way. Who created this system? Masters of arithmetical subterfuge and statistical camouflage, purposively complex, such that another overpaid bean-counter or three has to be summoned to unravel the original intentions.
The conclusion, if there is one, is that I chose to take this journey here, in the cosy and safe environment of the LSE forum where brothers and sisters are united in the quest for less, less money. A harmonious community where . . . .yadda, yadda yadda ...
Here's some BOPD numbers coz nobody gives a **** about gas. If anyone screams loud enough I'll do the graphs.