Member Info for Therapist

Hi Stevo,

You have a good head for numbers. I have tried to get my more bamboozled head around the Malaysia PSC also, and I accept that maybe this is too much detail, but I think someone suggested Malaysia wasn't profitable, which I think is ridiculous.

For the PSC the supplemental tax is based on the difference of oil price and base oil price. Are you aware of the base oil price?

GLAXXX

Hi,

I wonder if the 33rd round was delayed waiting for the Greenpeace case to be decided?

https://assets.caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/admin/2023/2608/ewhc_admin_2023_2608.pdf

Now that is over maybe it is imminent.

Also found this that mentions the plot near Magnus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIxAar7adoo

GLAXXX

Hi,

Thanks for hosting it. You were great and have an infectious laugh!! Hoping it all goes to plan.

GLAXXX

Hi,

I think you have to be on Telegram to access. I've been here a while and I don't think Steve will have anything new to divulge until the potential partners reveal themselves and their decision. I might give it a listen anyway as i quite like his determined positivity, like a market trader desperate to get some value from his last bunch of begonias.

GLAXXX

Dear Mr January 24,

May I congratulate you on your new position as Executive Director of Development and Learning with us at Just Stop Oil UK. After initial brainwashing on Monday we look forward to fitting you with a new orange boiler suit complete with complimentary superglue filled pockets. Be sure to let HR know if you have any orange powder allergies. Thank you for helping us "determine the future of humanity".

JSO XXX

hi,

with nsta july in, malaysia updated to reported figures and estimates for shut downs, new wells etc., i have year end at just above mid range 44.750 boepd. what's not to like, apart from the dismal tax regime, tight lipped management and share price falling like a nymphos' **** after a gangbang. glaxxx

Hi,

Capex also: "In production sharing agreements the country's government awards the execution of exploration and production activities to an oil company. The oil company bears the mineral and financial risk of the initiative and explores, develops and ultimately produces the field as required. When successful, the company is permitted to use the money from produced oil to recover capital and operational expenditures, known as "cost oil". The remaining money is known as "profit oil", and is split between the government and the company. In most of the production sharing agreements, changes in international oil prices or production rate affect the company's share of production. " Glaxxx

Hi,

I've revisited the Seligi PSC. Too many unknowns. Cost Oil, Unused Cost Oil and therefore Profit Oil. Supplemental Tax because we don't know the base oil price.

You can't work it out but in essence it is a fairer system than with EPL as costs after royalties are not taxed. Just the profit (after royalties) is taxed. They call it a waterfall agreement rather than a windfall agreement. I think the whole thing is geared by Petronas as a carrot to operators, and having attended the Malaysian Bid Round 2022 and seen the process I think it has to work for both parties. I didn't end up bidding but was fun while it lasted. GLAXXX

Hi,

Here is the PM8/ Seligi PSC model in case you hadn't found it.

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3i5qyyxrz08wer7a1xowp/PM8-Seligi-PSC.pdf?rlkey=ypjg1dq3ucbz5o1rmnz46z1nc&dl=0

In short as oil price goes up so do all payments/liabilities including taxes. I have a spreadsheet page of workings and variables on this produced a few years ago but frankly I'm full of Chardonnay right now and can't make head or tail of it.

As an aside I was at a (my) industry specific sustainability conference today attended by about 300 people. One speaker in outlining their relevance also referred to a recent short prison sentence due to Just Stop Oil activities. Immediate "Whoops" by at least 30 people. I bit my lip. GLAXXX

Hi Stevo, Thanks for valued input. Point 2 "Gas is pass through". I don't think that is accurate. I estimate Gas Saleable Volume from NSTA data for Magnus, Alba, Kittiwake, GEAD and a 5% estimate in Malaysia at roughly 3k boepd per month. That is roughly 6.5% of Enquest annual production. With gas prices where they have been recently this is not insignificant. I agree the WoS purchased gas and Malaysian carry gas doesn't help but that is a serious income stream. I tried to get something out of Craig Baxter on the recent investor meet on Seligi "carry" gas and future potential of it. Reading between the lines if Petronas have a market for it then it has real added value to Enquest. GLAXXX

Hi, here's a years worth of production. Malaysia updated with HY23 data but ignores newly reported unsaleable 660 boepd seligi gas. HY23 boepd this period (up to June) just under 45k and smugly as predicted.

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t3963iiapp1946pqyd8ir/Enquest-Production-Estimate-June-22-June-23.pdf?rlkey=4hhf24yj7krjyrb2898oxzwdr&dl=0 Hope any Swedish delisting doesn't cause much cost (of course it frikkin will!!) GLAXXXhttps://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t3963iiapp1946pqyd8ir/Enquest-Production-Estimate-June-22-June-23.pdf?rlkey=4hhf24yj7krjyrb2898oxzwdr&dl=0

GLAXXX

Hi,

The operating revenue maths and the fact it is possibly to do with the ongoing gas evaluation interested me and I had a pootle earlier and again just now. My conclusion:

If you got the entire Enquest senior management team in a padded cell for three days whacked out on truth serum and tickled their tight lipped sphincters with top quality ostrich feathers you would be no nearer establishing any understandable facts on production and value of said production. I bet they standard issue cyanide pills so check for them first in case you act on this.

There are too many unknowns and variables . . . but why??.

As I have said before head under the parapet and softly softly etc. Frustrating but a necessary maybe.

G FrikkinLAXXX

Hi Himmatsj,

Richard Hall mentioned it when detailing Kraken. Production dropped about 550 boepd gross from Feb to March and stayed that way in April. So maybe one of the units down or failing.

GLAXXX

Hi,

I've just listened and it was in the Q&A at around 37:30. I think his head was on M&A activity so possibly 4 of those potentially in discussion. Also asked later about investment potential outside North Sea but steered it back to the "competitive (tax) advantage" in home waters.

Production buoyant, hedging has upside, shareholder returns closer . . . despite the excrutiating scrotal twist of the SP movement today what's not to like?

No mention of EP??

If Kraken problems started in March as stated (which we didn't know) then the normal they refer to might be Jan/Feb average which was 16.3k, restart "flush" as Richard mentioned will negate a bit of decline. Down-rating Kraken premium also and even going negative is a surprise, but they know their schnizzle, and I'm just a monkey with a keyboard.

GLAXXX Enquestrians

Hi,

I've said it before but in the current climate: "Softly, Softly, Catchie Oilie". They absolutely don't want to raise their heads above the parapet tomorrow so I think the normal standardised info and anything that has an element of boost will be played down.

I would like to be amazed; EP sold to Disney as a floating oil based theme park (imagine the flume rides?), Kittiwake scaffolders agree to work free for a month and not wear crocs, Barakah have a change of heart and decide to drop litigation with all 700 companies they are sueing and compensate with free camels for all shareholders and, of course, a Lambrini party for eligible shareholders on the first divvy date.

GLAXXX

Hi,

More Magnus activity " prioritising organic investments with quick pay backs "

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1177896/DR-2393-0.pdf

"Well M43 (hereby referred to as B07) will be a sidetracked well from the existing platform M42 well, which is shut in due to water cut and will be plugged and abandoned ahead of drilling the B07 well." "Operations are expected to last a total of 95 days and will take place between 11 August 2023 and 29 February 2024"

GLAXXX

Hi

Sorry - correct link here

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/kk3bn3f99sjc5o1f65950/Brent-v-Rotterdam-VLSFO-Nov-19-Jul-23.pdf?rlkey=bsy7ntvga6xu9rog84ip2tlj3&dl=0

GLAXXX

Hi,

The % figures referenced to Kraken recovery either relates to a pre shutdown production benchmark or an ongoing efficiency benchmark . Either way to satisfy the last two offloads if at the expected (industry standard?) 500k, then I believe Kraken has to be performing better than pre shutdown. As AimOilking suggested maintenance done and also a little back online relief spurt should improve production in short to mid term.

Anyhow, as an aside, I have again been looking at VLFSO pricing.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rezyu4w4v2hm0v9/Enquest%20NSTA%20Production%20Data%20Jan%2017%20-%20Nov%2022.pdf?dl=0

Amjad loves mentioning a vague "premium" and I'm not saying they achieve the full pricing but it's a thing, albeit a smallish thing currently.

GLAXXX

Hi,

To cheer things up Altera Wave is en route to Kraken. Snuck up on her overnight so 1200 today eta.

GLAXXX

Hi,

Here also in words with pictures.

GLAXXX

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/9129/nsta-gas-footprint-factsheet_2023.pdf

GLAXXX