Member Info for Therapist

GKB,

If you're driving in the area then pop in and see us at Sullom Voe. Plenty of parking now the bay is drained. All LSE listers on the VIP list along with Greta and that ill respected fool David Attenborough. Too noisy for serious debate so that's a blessing.

GLAXXX

All,

Never mentioned on the Thistle thread but several chopper flights from Bab****, **** being an enormous male appendage, Aberdeen to Stena Don, getting ready for imminemt Kraken Western Flank works,

The earth's not flat?? Havin' a laugh.

GLAXXX

Hi,

Not saying it is a no go but I can't see any evidence of Enquest using Bristow. There are a lot of semi regular flights out of Aberdeen and Sumburgh with Bab**** going to Heather, Producer and Kraken. Here's hoping nevertheless.

GLAXXX

All,

There's a webcam on the harbour in case one should want to see it arrive (and see if it's towing).

https://www.shetlandwebcams.com/lerwick-harbour-north/

Christ, I need to get a life.

GLAXXX

Hi Londoner,

I don't think the OAG/OGA figures for oil are the same as company reported figures. If they have declared that then I have missed it, happy to be proved wrong. The company and partners hardly ever report bopd so there is little comparison to be made, Kraken 2018 at 99.74% of OGA my only example since 2017. Close, I agree but no cigar.

I think the company reported figures are for saleable product which is what I am interested in. That leaves us trying to extrapolate how much gas from OGA figures is saleable, that is not flared or fuel, on top of what oil is saleable, that is not used as "fuel process" or lost as value in the mingle.

My retro shrinking, where I take out some gas and then take another % hit on remaining site specific boepd seemed to be finding a pattern but is out now we are at year end 2019.

With hindsight, and remembering I am trying to establish saleable product, I think this method would need to be adaptable year in year out, for example how do you deal with the possibility that a tanker of oga reported oil from Enquest Producer is not being sold but delivered to Kraken as fuel as purported.

Anyhow, it all gets a bit complex but if I take out all my oil shrinkage and leave gas deductions as is I get 67117 Dec 19 so we are both in a zone.

I'll graph and write some 2020 predictions when I get a chance, maybe after FY report.

Best to you and GLAXXX

GKB,

Not "rigged" just always up for analysis. Right direction though so that's good.

GLAXXX

All,

I of course have played with my spreadsheet.

In summary looking at year end 19 boepd numbers and trying to predict December I struggle to get a believable number for December. My model, as some may remember, applies shrinkage to try and match oga data to company reported data. Level of shrinkage defined by accuracy of figures in previous years but applied across all years so maybe it needs to be refined across the years as the portfolio changes. Anyhow it means my estimates for current year boepd were all low. These were the figures applied to my little financial model that had net debt year end 2019 at $1.45 billion so that makes sense - more oil more cash for debt reduction to $1.413 billion. I also struggled to get my financial model to stack up with HY reported income sp again that makes sense with my boepd estimates being low.

I know it's not science but it is my science and is another plus in my book.

Had to dig the corona snorkel out recently but in waders right now and hopefully dry on the beach again soon.

GLAXXX

Krakenoil,

No offence but can you add some logic to your current fears?

Isn't oil price tumble based on corona another short lived chunk of volatility? Production data rosy, finances viable.

As you may be aware I know sweet fa but you are beginning to sound a bit dancey and I'd like to know why.

GLAXXX

All,

A bit of history for any interested.

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-press-and-journal-inverness-highlands-and-islands/20200203/283291754600131

1971-2020 RIP (Retire Its Pipes)

GLAXXX

GKB,

Not the government no, just doing a bit of Shrinkage:

"Shrinkage may occur from three potential sources—process fuel, terminal flaring and value adjustment. The Group is required to contribute fuel necessary to process the hydrocarbons at the Kinneil Oil Terminals. There is also flaring at the terminals to which all pipeline entrants are required to contribute. Oil from Thistle/Deveron and the Dons is exported through the Brent pipeline and oil from Magnus and Heather/Broom is exported through the Ninian pipeline. SVT uses commingled crude (Brent and Ninian), which results in a “blend” oil price being calculated. A value adjustment is then calculated based on the relative quality of the Group’s crude against the blend as a whole and this normally results in a further element of shrinkage. Historically, the Group’s shrinkage factor has been less than 3 per cent. of produced volumes for total gross production across all the Group’s assets."

"Commingling" at SVT . . you bet there is.

GLAXXX

. . .which means that after I add gas and do a bit of tweaking to make it comparable to company reporting I get . . .67322 net boepd. That's a nicer number.

Hi,

At corrected 65185 net bopd with Malaysia in at 7971 bopd having taken out a 5% gas estimate.

GLAXXX

Correction 65185 net bopd but the rest stands. Just a typo.

All,

Numbers are in.

I make it 61585 net bopd.
Kraken 44933 gross bopd
Magnus still off best at 12555 gross BOPD
Scolty/ Crathes back up to September levels
Deveron and Ythan not producing alongside expected Heather and Thistle.

A good chunk below my boepd projection so something still not stacking up in oga based forecasting.

Nice weekend all.

Sorry Guys and Gals,

Performers aren't permitted to use their phones for net access during working hours. I'll have a word. Security do a quick frisk so christ knows where they are hiding them. Bringing them through in the pipeline?

I got an LSE slap wrist for my failed and poorly administered nemesis Kneel Gammon, and I accept my crimes and understand and apolgise and will never never ever.

On rosier notes OGA data and OU incoming. Fingers crossed. Thoughtful analysis of Londoner getting sucked into tanker tease is a good sign in my book.

GLAXXX

Colebrooke,

Or "Short Oil Bad" in polite circles but not down here in the gutter!! Different rules at ADVFN I guess.

GLAXXX

GKB, Pelle,

Official guidance is: Pelle has to give me all family shares becuse I'm a Therapist and it will make him better. Scotland team up with Scandinavia, arriverderci UK, there's your Nordic Bloc. Eeek. No Klingon. Sullom Voe offshore tax free status, North Sea Vegas.

GLAXXX

All,

Have an auto log in and it chose my naughty nemesis. It's just me little old Therapist and his silly spreadsheets . . . .

All,
Did someone say latex? How do you imagine I ballast the empty tankers coming into Sullom Voe!

Be nice people, it's just a global virus crisis.

GLAXXX

Hi Oilman,

Sorry if you feel disenfranchised by the company but this really isn't the best place to vent that if so. Constructive criticism from someone on the shop floor always welcome in my book but needs to be constructive.

No offence meant but if you have slick hips let me know . . .

GLAXXX