What we got.....is wanted!6 Jun 2022 20:24
Previous US sanctions on Russia have not been aimed at Nornickel or PGMs. So far in response to Russian actions regarding Ukraine, the US, the UK and EU have not targeted Nornickel or PGMs.
China uses more PGMs than Russia produces (~3.2 moz of palladium, ~2.5 moz of platinum and ~370 koz of rhodium). In theory, in the event of sanctions from Western countries impacting PGM exports from Russia, China could absorb all of Russia’s PGM output.
Russia is the largest producer of palladium with refined output predicted to be 2.7 moz this year (38% of global primary production). The majority of the PGM production comes from Nornickel with a small amount of platinum from West Kytlim (4 koz) as alluvial sources have depleted. Nornickel’s mines are in the Kola and Taimyr peninsulas. The processing route takes some of the nickel matte to the Harjavalta refinery in Finland. The PGM concentrates remain in Russia and are refined by Krastsvetmet (Krasnoyarsk refinery). Russia is also a small, but still important, source of minor PGMs.
Russian production forecast in 2022 (% of global primary supply):
Palladium: 2.7 moz (37.5%)
Platinum: 670 koz (10.6%)
Rhodium: 76 koz (9.7%)
Iridium: 25 koz (8.3%)
Ruthenium: 41 koz (3.9%)
The palladium price has surged on concerns around Russian supply. Given Russian actions in Ukraine, the worry is that sanctions could curb PGM availability. So far in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US and European sanctions have targeted financial institutions, defense and technology companies, and people in government and close to Putin. Energy companies have been banned from raising capital in the US and UK, but their products have not been targeted. Neither Nornickel, nor PGMs, have been targeted by sanctions previously, and currently there is no suggestion that they would be included in any further sanctions. If they were targeted, short term disruption to supply could occur, which would push PGM prices higher. However, it seems unlikely that sanctions would ultimately prevent the metal from leaving the country. Exports to China would likely still be possible, and China uses more PGMs than Russia produces (~3.2 moz of palladium, ~2.5 moz of platinum and ~370 koz of rhodium).