Member Info for TheItalian

.....aaaand to build on this, SOLG is also working on a financing package. Now this will naturally include a combination of equity, debt and maybe some extra royalties. IMHO SOLG will not entertain takeover conversations (barring a response to a hostile bid) until they have their package and they use it as the benchmark to beat for a takeover.
So I would expect that SOLG for example come back with 1bln of equity, 2bln of debt and 500mln against royalties; then BHP or anyone else might just rush to buy the equity portion, OR they might revert with an equity-only counteroffer that needs to deliver that same total amount or a premium over it. And then it's payday and we can all bugger off and stop listening to each other!

RICH3R, it sure can, and I would agree that the majors will have to let go of their caution, which is greatly influenced by the last underperforming M&A cycle of 10 years ago, to acquire the increasingly rare tier 1s.
The trigger will be pulled as late as they can afford though, a) to avoid buying resources that turn out not to be as good, b) to avoid being too rampant about M&A, which last time around did not play well for them, and c) to avoid being the one who looks fool because he thought he was smarter than the others and bought ahead of time.
This works potentially well for SOLG. If the resource is really what we think it is, AND the project plan is economical, AND all the doubts about Ecuador are no longer a concern, then no one looks stupid for buying SOLG even if the price goes through the roof. For a major, spending $2-3Bln with economic uncertainty is likely to be less palatable than spending $4-5Bln with economic certainty.
In this respect, I think NM understands what he was doing all along.

Mining companies price the assets at conservative prices and run their business working towards higher margin based on a lower baseline price.
Mining is highly cyclical, in the long run prices vary a lot, energy costs vary a lot, interest rates vary a lot, then there is ESG cots, country risks, etc etc.
So no mining company values their assets or assets they wish to buy at the current prices, particularly when they are above the long term average.
The latest SOLG maiden resource for Porvenir (15th December 2021) uses $3.30.
Now the PFS might use a higher value, but it's not going to be the market high or the spot price, as simple as.

@RK1, the raising prices are all fine and dandy, but it has limited impact if the PFS is still based on $3.30/oz or thereabouts. Certainly mining M&A is not conducted in a panicky fashion based on where the metal's spot price is.
As usual you are projecting too much.....

.....it's been the determination to NOT sell out.....

@Colonel, to be honest I don't think one needs actual sources to figure that one out. If NM was willing to sell below £1 we would have been sold already, it's been the determination to be sell out that has created all the tensions with the shareholders and the price pressure.
It's always been clear that NM has created the foundation for a very binary outcome, i.e. £1 or nothing, and so far we have nothing.

BHP will have to justify any price they eventually offer for SOLG to their board, and despite Warren Irwin suggesting that the majors run their own numbers and don't need the official PFS, a project of the Alpala size and complexity with numbers still not fully defined and a potential very large cost will require an official statement. I doubt very much that BHP can and will bid before the PFS, they will need proper derisking to justify the investment.

!

It seems obvious (to me) that NM is the problem, starting when he decided that we had to turn into a production company, with an endless sequence of negatively impacting decisions.
Assuming RK is genuine, an internal source could only refer to NM in such cryptic terms.

Montecristo, I tend to agree, and to be honest once again I need to point out that the BB keeps on projecting aspiration on what SOLG should do. They have already stated that the PFS is delayed, and any other relevant news will be published only when relevant and good news.
I expect the AGM to be quite uneventful, anything of relevance that is going on around SOLG is happening in the background and will come to light one day when we don't expect it.

Pad, long time!

@mwv1, keep it coming, I love your posts!

@mwv1 (acronym of Mather Wants Value?), that's interesting analysis and different from the usual comments here, are you a geologist?

Barry the 50 something fatty Italian from Wolverhampton was relieved.
Thank you Shipright for the "handsome" by the way!

Someone so outspoken and with strong opinions, all of which s/he feels compelled to share here with us boring long terms shareholding low-lives, if he is so convinced about everything he says, perhaps he should share his real name and address.
After all we try to respect each other and those like us who put their hard earned money at risk, and honour the benefit that comes with anonymity. When one forfeits these sacred principles, one loses the right to speak.
So one either should shut up or be filtered. Personal opinion.

You guys really are on a roll.
If I may add, based on dilution from the 2017 peak, the current price corresponds to about 29.2p, so we are jut about 33% from the most bullish price level this share has ever achieved (forget the old 2010 peak).
So, factually, dilution sucks for us and is our worst enemy. Right now, without dilution, our price based on 2017 issuance would be about 35.2p.
So how do we minimize dilution going forward? For one thing, keep BHP away as much as possible, unless they are happy to negotiate an even remotely acceptable price.
GLA

DBW, what's on BNAmericas?

You all know I have been invested here for a long time (2014 that is my first SOLG shares) and you all know I always try to have a balanced view on what happens to the company and our investment.
Now, rationally I have been postulating all along that we are worth more than the current share price, even when we were in the 40s, and that NM's strategy has created a binary outcome situation where either someone pays up or we are under pressure, so far resulting in all the pressure on none of the expected upside.
Unlike some high flyers here, I also suggested that we should see the previous peak again, before dreaming of 60p, let alone £1 or more, and pragmatically I still hold that it's the only reasonable approach.
Now, something I never shared. Back in June 2017, when we were starting to come off the peak, someone I have absolute trust in and I take as the gospel, told me in quite definitive terms that I would have never been able to sell again at that level. I had a ton of shares and was dreaming of buying a 60ft sailing boat with the proceedings at the time, so I completely dismissed the suggestion. Ever since I have still fought rationally against it, but again and again, at each step of the way I was proven wrong.
So today I really struggle. This is my largest single share holding and I still think we are undervalued, but if I think of a low ball offer or improved sentiment pushing the price to the 40s again, I genuinely don't know if I would/should sell at least a big chunk of the share I have.
Why am I saying all this? Because we PIs have been put in a difficult situation and are not playing the big game like BHP or Nick Mather. The investment case has been complicated like crazy and we have been taken for a ride where many would have been rightfully happy to sell at 1-2-300% profit and move on.
I read the BB and all I see is frustrated investors who take it on each other, while we are been played (by both sides) and eventually our confidence fades. But we need to understand and support each other, our circumstances might create more or less financial stress and dictate a more or less speculative approach to the SOLG's investment.
This is not an easy time and definitely not the time to mock each other while the big money is working in the background to decide the outcome of our investment (as a sideshow to theirs).
Apologies for the rant, and GLA.

Unless it's been drilled in French...

Thanks