RE: Into the 24s...again!19 Nov 2021 11:30
Come on RK1, a company is going to try and set its own strategy with a plan A and a plan B or it will be imposed by someone else (e.g. BHP and NCM).
There are some obvious defining factors about SOLG at play:
1) The resource is even too big and its size is a moving target, so taking its snapshot at any point in time means undervaluing it
2) Ecuador is still a risky proposition no matter what the spin. South American countries can turn around one way or the other in 12 months.
3) It's a given that the majors will want to take it away from SOLG
4) Any idea of fair value is at best a wide range of values, from 45p to £4 depending on what is priced in when
So of course if you are the CEO, you will rush to drill and measure as much as possible because time is not going to be your friend and the majors are going to be breathing on your neck and pushing you around for the light weight you are, and mistakes will be made.
I can only reasonably expect that many of the drilling results we have been hoping for were not as good as, no other hole 5s happened, and the first PFS draft was not economical, and if you want to justify the effort and not give in and sell at 45p, you are going to buy time and of course that will annoy the majors.
So was NM bluffing? Of course not. I can only imagine that he would very much love to sell the bloody company and move on, but what SOLG need to prove to get the right price is an awful lot and it takes time and a lot of good work. In the meantime, if the majors keep playing their games, what is he supposed to do, tell them "Ok them, have it your way?" or is he going to own the strategy and say "Plan B it is then, if no one pays for it, the resource is ours and we will continue the project ourselves".
The only reality I see is that SOLG had been trying to create optionality for the investors, and the majors have been trying to corner SOLG and take the options away. In this respect, I don't see how it may be convenient for us to support BHP at the AGM.