The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Methink, when last week I was listing the three main topics affecting the SOLG price at the moment, that country risk is indeed a concern and the one we cannot control. The other two variables (IMHO), i.e. spinning off the regionals before selling SOLG (corporate challenge) and how to resolve the block cave approach economically (technical challenge), are the foundation of the Strategic Review that is required to allure a buyer.
But if a country gets toxic for investors, whether or not this is the case for Equador and whether or not it is to such a degree to push even the Chinese away, it might push us back years.
Just for balance and hopefully not of course.
How about a plain poll on the three top variables at play for SOLG?
Mine are: Spin-offs strategy to work out the SR, addressing the block cave challenge, country risk
Any other views, just to pass the time?
Fair enough pactrol, pricing that in the top 2017 price corresponds to 27.97 today and the current price corresponds to a 2017's 32.85, upside to 40-45p.
Still no lifechanging, but better than my initial estimate.
@Red and all, I just ran through the numbers myself.
If I got them right, in April 2017 we had 1.432 bln shares when the price reached 46.88p.
As of today, with 3 bln shares in issuance that 46.88 would correspond to 22.37p, so we would not be priced so badly even though we are horrified at the effects of dilution mixed with bad management.
Factoring in that we cannot transition to a development phase and achieve the relative valuation multiples because we are not producing a BFS or allegedly conducting any meaningful activities leading to development, with a great sense of loss I need to conclude that at this stage the price has limited upside, perhaps only as far as 30-35p best case.
If I am reading the use case incorrectly in any way, by all means speak up and share your thoughts.
GLA
I missed something, sorry, where is this swap advertised and do we know who traded it?
Any news somewhere y any chance?
@needalife, it definitely sounds like you do!
Since you are not invested, please come back when you are, no hurry, take your time.
Q, I don't have a grudge with anyone here, so I don't like wasting time or those wasting time demeaning the other posters.
None of us honestly has a full grasp of everything related to investment or trading, we just have a personal wealth of knowledge and tools we use to make a somewhat rational set of decisions.
If we did we would be running a hedge fund or else and would not be wasting our time on anonymous BBs.
So let's drop it and be nice and supportive of each other.
Or filter them and move on....
GLA
About Blackrock, and while I enjoy the Colonel's posts even if half the time there is more interpretation than actual fact, I would like to point out, after asking a dear friend who is actually an MD at BR, that their buying and selling and crossing thresholds and having to inform the market about it refers to passive funds and ETFs. BR just invests in stocks and have to periodically rebalance, and SOLG happens to be one of very many they invest in. There is just no BR conspiracy here. When BR wants to influence a company's direction, they don't buy and sell to speculate on price, they invest more heavily for increased leverage with the management and directly affect the strategy.
My best 10 songs of 1981 in no specific order what are yours:
Siouxie and the Banshees - Spellbound
Kim Karnes - Bette Davies Eyes
The Police - Every little thing she does is magic
Soft Cell - Tainted Love
Phil Collins - In the air tonight
Earth Wind & Fire - Let's groove
Genesis - Abacab
Visage - Fade to Grey
Rolling Stones - Start me up
Queen - Another one bites the dust
Price retrace to about 18p, then up to 26.8p.
Spot the pattern.....
guymac, not sure whether yours was a loaded question or a genuine one.
You don't trade SOLG on technicals, you trade it on events (e.g. a takeover, a new find, the BFS, ec.) or you traded it on value (e.g. the future value in the ground being monetized).
Fibonacci works to an extent but the timing is tricky, Elliott waves less so. The other technicals (Bollinger, RSI, etc.) are just good for the short term if you want to trade the share, but as many have experienced, it's not an easy science given the lack of liquidity and the event-driven nature of SOLG's price movements.
That's my take anyway.....good luck with your money
Thank God that Novice knows what is really going on, among so many clueless posters picking on each other's guesses....
C0m3 on a11, b3 n1c3 t0 3ach 0th3r
https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e
Split the proceeds in four slices:
S1) Global dividend accumulation fund
S2) Gilts
S3) Some other crazy s*** like SOLG where we can meet again in this BB and waste another 5 years of our lives arguing
S4) A boat
@addicknt, in principle you could be right, but at the same time, if we were now in a complete vacuum with no news or activities, the share price would have started falling again. The fact that the price is showing some stability at this very point in time seems to indicate that there is a foundation and broadly speaking the only way should be up (+/- some % movements that are always possible).
About the SR, I think we get occasionally lost in the semantics. It would be absurd IMHO that we wait until June 2023 only to learn that the company has decided "strategically" to sell or spin-off or JV or go to production or else, and now how to do any of that needs to be worked out. It seems more reasonable to me that all these options have been pursued and discussed and negotiated with various parties and when the SR comes out it will indicate the executed plan, subject to whatever shareholder majority is required of course.
Happy new week to all!
1) We know nothing more than we did last week
2) We think we know something but if one day we finally get put out of our misery, what the company will have done to make that happened will be different from whatever some postulate in this BB
3) A health debate would be nice and entertaining, but plain disagreeing and finger-pointing and *****ing are pointless, we all make money the same way (if we do) and that is by buying low (which many here did not do) and selling high (which we hope we can one day do, albeit at varying degrees)
4) So no one is right actually, especially those who are long at a higher price; whatever the scenarios, in hindsight we juzt got the entry at the wrong level and that's all that matters.
Have a great week, Italian out!
Difficult to really say of course, and Scott's confidence must probably be discounted a bit. My main takeaway is that hopefully there is enough focus and drive to try and monetize Cascabel in the next 12 months, but you can tell that the SR will revolve a lot around what to do with the other tenements. Overall it came across as a multi year proposition. The question remains, can we at least get some joy in the short to medium term?
198, what is your grudge, really, and what is it that you win?
There is only one thing to win, and that is based on the level at which one buys and how the price moves.
Live in peace, or leave in piece, but mostly leave us be, we have been around this share and suffering long enough to really need another angry poster.
and repeat after me: "I don't know s***".
Don't worry, you are in good company, right now especially we all know s***!