Member Info for Theborn

Turds float sometimes!
Prefer if it was floating at £4+....aka a fair valuation!

Considering in past couple of days PFG has annouced the PRA retail deposit group use approval; news today banking surcharge expected to still fall to 3% from 8%; and significant bull and risk on rally in the general market..... This turd still sits even further behind where it was when market was at this level weeks ago. We were well over £2 then.

They need to announce CMD ASAP and give market some real guidance.

Turd share.

I was thinking given their cash holding and the undervalue of shares, they could do what other firms have done and start some share buy backs which would help boost share price (from market confidence assessment) and also improve the dilution percentage of us long suggesting shareholders. They could easily buy back £50m of shares now they have access to the retail deposits in addition to existing cash.

No brainer. They won't do it though.

"v o x m a r k e t s"

"v o x m a r k e t a"

Note "**********" has been starred out on link below. If you update link for this worth watching this 25 minute update filmed this morning.

Most of it has already been covered off by VOX interview with Mano CEO this morning. If anyone can listen to this and not think this share is way undervalued then they need to review their medicine dosage. Extremely bullish:

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/q-a-with-manolete-partners-ceo-steven-cooklin-e6971bd

On the new cases point, they have always made clear there is a lag between office holder being appointed and mano taking on case. What we are seeing now is large increase in office holder appointments which should mean over the next 12 months there is similar significant increase in mano new cases.

The jump in new enquiries and return to pre pandemic levels is a plus.

I see the write downs, which we were advised of, as being a chance for management to reset to a position where looking ahead there is now materially more upside (on case write ups) than down sides. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the shock case is overturned at appeal (as someone correctly pointed out this will have been reviewed by KC on chance of success and they wouldn't be pursuing it if they were advised winning on appeal was unlikely - the fact appeal granted so quickly supports this).

Share price did this last time we've had results. People and brokers read the headline (EBIT loss) and sell, then once analysts and sensible folk digest the full report and upside potential there is a strong upward momentum. 3pm call with Mano today will be start of this process.

BBL point has so far been completely missed by the market, still.

"We have commenced a pilot with Barclays Bank aimed at recovering misappropriated loans under the UK Government's COVID-19 related Bounce Back Loan ("BBL") scheme. The initial recoveries on the pilot are very encouraging and we are hopeful that this will lead to wider adoption of our solution across the UK banking sector. We are in active but early discussions with the leading BBL providers."

This is huge.

Market seems to have completely missed this and possibly because its not an official RNS. I suspect when mentioned omin results on Thursday it will have material upside.

This news means Mano has not only become one of UK's largest bank's trusted partners but also the key facilitator and trusted partner of HMRC. If confirmed Mano keep 50% of recoveries and liklihood HMRC will look to make other BBL Banks partner with Mano there could well be £100s millions in recoveries of which Mano keep half. This is a revenue stream currently not factored into an already lucrative business model in the current economic environment.

My view is the share show be trading closer to all time highs of £6 even before this incredible news, so throw that into the mix and could conceivably be a 5-10 bagger on current £2.50 price.

Await 7am update on Thursday and hope it aligns with this news.

To confirm, I've always said this share was undervalued and has become even more significantly undervalued during 2022.

My justified disappointment is the lack of transparency and clarity from management (and PFG's investor relations) on any market update or result update - both around lack of clarity on 'management expectations' and regular reshuffling of result reporting proforma making it hard to compare apples with apples year on year. Both of these issues create doubt and uncertainty for stakeholders (when perhaps there is non need for doubt) and both could be easily corrected if management decided to do so.

So whilst I applaud some progress made since 2018 I do attribute a good portion of the share's current underperformance to management. The stock price doesn't lie and management to date are seen as value destructive, wiping off 70%+ of value as of earlier this month.

I'll be as happy as all shareholders if over the next 2-3 years this does start to realise its true £6+ potential. But management still have a lot to answer for on lack of transparency.

Let's see when CMD is announced and what they have to say re expectations then. Although I fear will once again be PFG jargon bingo...

My understanding is the PRA will have given significant consideration to this request, as a) it opens up retail deposits to group risks and b) given the previous pfg reg issues the PRA wouldn't be risking savers funds if considered more of a risk than any other banking group.

Given process has taken almost a year my reading is this is a sort of thumbs up from PRA on pfg overall functioning.

Share should be £4+ in real world. Long long long way to go

Very good news from a cost of funding perspective. They still should have commented on this in the recent update that they were still awaiting response, rather than just not mentioning it whatsoever.

Expect CMD date to be announced soon now this is in place. And hopefully a 3x increase in share price.

Unfortnately for the past 5 years the bounces have been less frequent and less substantial than the falls.

Agree Pooks.
The reaction last week was as if 'analysts' had their recommendations ready to print and fully drafted at 7:01am without even reading the RNS Trading Update: view on the brand and sector = don't fancy it. Completely ignoring the discount to NAV (i.e. masive current undervaluation), dividend yield, EPS, repositioning of the book, the make up of the PFG loan book, the increased credit quality (all graphically demonstrated in the H1 deck 3 months ago), the provisioning ALREADY in place (again in the H1 deck with their stres assumptions) and finally, the point point they are on course to meet 'market' (not just internal, but market) expectations this year (these were set out in H1 deck and current analyst consensus is 35p EPS with 40% payout ratio).

If PFG just paid out current year EPS and their cash surplus you'd be pocketing more than current share price.

All this said, Management could do a far better job at managing this and improving guidance / perception. You look at PFG website and their is a load of guff about how seriously they take their financial calendar and keeping investors informed.....you look at the calendar - no dates. For anything. At least put CDM expected Dec-22 or something to that effect and give the impression you care about investors.

Banks also reporting some of their best figures in years, despite sensible increasing provisions where appropiate.
Banks startin off from a more sensible valuation before a slight drop.
PFG starting at 50%+ discount to FV before the recent falls.
Up this morning but nowhere near the type of recover it needs.

I'm really unsure why this is continuing to plummet.
Every day there are far more buys then sells (including today).
With more buyers the price should be rolling up - unless their is a huge sell waiting to be filled in the background.
I've even re-read the TU twice today. It's only 5 days old and there is nothing in there except reassurances and positives. Nothing to warrant a free fall from an already undervalued stock. It doesn't compute.
Barclays still reiterating as overweight.
There is a point where takeover offer has to come along.

Oh my....
Going into the 120s. Never, ever thought I'd see the day.
Can a white knight please gallop in and put this management team out of there misery.

This piece of **** is going to £nil at this rate.
Down 5% again today vs Financials sector up >3%.
I can't understand how this can go any lower.
Management out. Now.

I thought same thing bigpunt. It's below half the comp you'd expect for someone in that role.

Perhaps MLM and CFO are hands on so this is more of a project coordinator.

I have a contact who has spoken with PFG and apparently PRA decision expected soon and CMD will be announced following that PRA approval (assuming it's an approval). CMD will provide opportunity to set out longer term targets. Will believe when I see it but I'd say the CMD needs scheduling urgently regardless of PRA approvals. Market needs to hear first hand.

My reading of H1 update is provisioning is already v robust. Shore Cap also support this view (and they are broker with access to PFG). Share price fell on that random broker saying they think 15% of debts could be written off next year.... But I think PFG could already be holding provisions beyond this number so serious downside was already factored in.

Still, be ironic that PFG are planning on takeovers but due to their own lack of transparency and communication they could find themselves on other end of takeover bid. They'd deserve it.