Member Info for Theborn

You've got to laugh - strong trading update - down 5% in first 30 mins of trading. F-ing amazing.

This share really can't ever catch a break. I'm going to top up again today.

Let's see what market thinks. Still a £5+ share trading blwow half price imo.

Once again the FTSE 100 / 250 recover losses and PFG lags behind. Drops 3% for every 1% fall in the FTSE 250 then recovers 0.5% for every 1%. Two steps forward, three back.

Waiting for the catch up. When FTSE 250 was at this level 6 weeks ago PFG was at 270p - so we've lost 10% vs the index in the recent dip. Makes no sense at all.

..... Couple of hours after saying more buys than sells there was a £13m sell ??. Price has jumped a little since. Those orders have probably been sat on the book for a while forcing price down.

Reiteration from Barclays yesterday - Overweight with Target £4.10.

Interestingly the Balance Sheet net assets per share alone is £2.05. So the shares are currently trading on a break-up basis.

Clearly, I take the point in a significant stress the loan assets would be worth less, but you take my point at how out of kilter the pricing is on this share. To my earlier point on the chats below, the last few days when FTSE 250 down 1-2% each day, PFG has been down 3x that amount. Today, when FTSE 250 is up 1%, PFG is up <1%. Despite being lots more buy trades than sells. So it gets hammered on 3x multiple on drops, and recovers on less than a 1:1 basis.

There has to be a big price correction soon in my opinion.

From Mano's Twitter:

This is a very welcome Appeal Court judgment and confirms the refusal of the courts to interfere with the assignment of claims. Defendants must respond to an assigned claim on its merits rather than to seek to take issue with the assignment.

https://caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewca/civ/2022/626

This really is an absolute pig of a share. Going to be on a sub-3x PE by end of the week at this rate.

I topped up again today.

The other argument is high inflation pushes previously prime borrowers into near-prime bucket - so PFG benefits from better quality and more customers. Provided they are true to their word on underwriting then anyone who is going from near-prime to sub-prime won't be put on the book. I'd trust the existing book and the fact that even with base rate rising to 2.5% they can take that on their cost of finance and more than easily enough pass on to customers.

4x PE at present. I'm happy to fill boots and hold.

https://www.propertyweek.com/news/worrying-outlook-as-insolvencies-rise-27-on-last-quarter/5120244.article

Good news on the cash recovery and the reiteration of strong rebound in case. Expecting a big rebound in share price from now on.

Barry - I think that's a very sensible argument but my instinct is the reason for the significant share price undervalue is less sophisticated.

Nearly all the trades of PFG are algo trades, I suspect some algos have Provident linked to banking sector, others to distressed debt and others to consumer related companies. Whenever one of those sectors as a whole takes a knock, PFG gets hammered. When they bounce, PFG bounces at a far lesser rate than the previous fall. So where the sector ends at par, PFG ends up down. This happens continually then on occasion PFG has a big run to catch up - which I'm hoping is now long overdue. It also still gets tarred with negative press from the fallout a few years ago - its a totally different animal now.

Positive business, earnings and dividend updates barely move the dial as they get lost in the algo trading. There also appears to be less emphasis on broker recommendations on shares not on the main market. Being outside the FTSE 100 also hurts.

There will come a time where dividend and EPS alone will start to justify a significant price correction. I'm hopeful this will be once the Ukraine war is resolved and we have further positive quarterly earnings updates. On current price, the dividend yield for next year is 15%!! EPS 30%+. PE ratio is in the 4-5 range now. Its total madness.

I've loaded up even further today. Time will tell.

Regardless of going ex-div this is utterly bonkers the share is trading at £2.50. Said it before, but it's worth more than double but can't catch a break. Maybe I'm the mug.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/first-review-of-the-insolvency-england-and-wales-rules-2016/first-review-of-the-insolvency-england-and-wales-rules-2016

Sounds like recommendation will be to avoid seperate proceedings meaning more cost saving and workload efficiencies for Mano.

Hoping for a positive trading update in the coming days.

On the back of positive results and a v positive q1 trading update hint we see a 15% fall. Despite brokers continually pointing to a fair value of £4-7.

On earnings alone and currebt price this is on a PE of about 5 looking ahead to next year. Should be on PE of c14 valuing it in the £7+ range.

I'll continue to hold and top up but its just one kick in the teeth after another. Dividend alone makes it a bargain.

One day it'll get momentum back and go north of £10. Sucker for punishment at present tho.

I meant Bango as a takeover target for one of the big tech boys.
Appreciate they are both on / about to be on the customer books.

Feels like at some point Bango (and Boku) will come onto the radar of the likes of Facebook and Amazon.
IMO this is a long term winner with significant upside.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/11/27/3-uk-shares-under-5-that-id-buy/

A troubling outlook for the British economy suggests that Manolete Partners (LSE: MANO) should witness rising demand for its services. This UK share finances insolvency litigation cases, an industry which I think could grow in 2022 as the number of companies hitting the rocks is unfortunately likely to rise.

Government support for business has suppressed the number of corporate insolvencies during the public health crisis. But even so, Manolete saw case completions rise 23% in the six months to September, latest financials showed. And it said that it’s witnessing “a sharp increase both case enquires and signed cases” since temporary government measures ended on 1 October.

Researchers at Atradius are expecting insolvency levels in the UK to be 33% higher in 2022 compared with pre-pandemic levels. This is the second-highest rate in the world, level with Australia and behind only Italy (where insolvencies are tipped to soar 34%).

Confident this will be back by £5+ following next update.

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/insolvency-funder-prepares-for-covid-caseload-surge-/5110055.article

Something wrong with data feed as can see my exact two buy trades today for £25k showing as sells on the log?!