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Also a chance that by shore taking on PFG they must flag this on thr broker reviews which automatically shows as a 'downgrade' when perhaps it isn't.

I have also thought that perhaps the appointment of Shore today, and LeMay's hinting at inorganic growth and exploring broader options might be part of Shore coming on board. Maybe there is something up their sleeve. Or maybe I'm just clutching at straws. GLA.

Was just about to say the same thing - ShoreCap are good in this sector, so the fact they are now acting for PFG and at the same time downgrading them is an even further damning indictment of management.

Numis also now downgrading expectations as projecting cost base for the year to be £50m higher than previously. All this while LeMay is 'delighted' and believes this is inline with expectations.

Out please.

Ego? I simply don't agree with your substantive point. I'd agree in relation to other businesses where I trust the management teams to deliver value from investment, but I'm past that point with current PFG team.

They've already spend heavily on marketing / sales / systems for the past 18-24 months and at present have next to zero customer / loan book growth to show for it. We were promised results by now previously and they've not arrived.

Like I say, I'd love the management to prove me wrong in the coming 12 months as I'm significantly out of pocket as things stand.

Who said I wanted to run PFG? And, with respect, your opinion is irrelevant.

You've completely missed my point. Speaking personally as a significant and long term shareholder in PFG and, based on demostrable track record of preivous and current management over the past few years (unusual economic events excused), I do not believe the current management are capable of investing that cash to deliver products of an accretive-value in the future. It's constant promises of 'meeting internal expectations' and delivering value 'in the mid to long term'. I've been wiating and continually topping up in the mid-term and whilst I see improvements in liquidity I do not see any improvements in transparency or ability to general new business in their pillar biz stream - Vanquis credit cards.

Rewind not too far and see what investing many £100ms in to efficiencies and new products achieved for PFG. I would therefore welcome anything the management can do in the short term to get some positive momentum into the share price - this would include share buy backs, special divis from provision wind downs and M&A activity. Hence my prior comment that PFG being acquired would be a positive step.

Maybe we revisit this discussion in 12 months and see what management have done. I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.

I think differently on special dividends. If you are a CEO or FD under pressure to give shareholders some sort of bone in the short term which might also boost SP from sentiment, its an option on the table. They clearly can't lend that money.

I know - also doesn't help that two of the four questions came from advisors/brokers to PFG.
Responses to all the questions didn't actually answer the question in hand. Just a load of waffle about 'mid-term' - unfortuanly they have been discussing the 'mid-term' for 3 years, and we have already arrived there! With only a lower share price to show for it.

My main takeaways were: 1) they have overprovisioned for prudence, so if the world doesn't come to an end there will be further upside to release to P&L and was alluded to this coulc ome by way of special dividend or share-buyback to increase existing shareholder value; 2) not sure about you Bigpunt, but LeMay's murmurings above 'non-organic' events and big opportunities on the horizon seemed to me to imply that given they have a significant amount of cash / cheap funding (whereas some competitors do not) there is scope for M&A activity. Personally I think this is the only way we see any realistic prospect of a share price starting with a £4 in the next 2 months as management alone clearly cannot deliver it. I hope one of the challenger banks gobbles them up - that was £4-5 a share on acquisition is completely reasonable given the loan book along accounts for majority of that value, so they'd be payng very little for the 'platform'. 3) general smoke and mirrors on the customer numbers and costs; 4) I found the credit ratings of the customers reassuring (increased from c800 to mid-900s over past 2 years) which suppost their stance that deliquencies are less likely.

Anyway. I'm praying someone acquires them who knows what they are doing.

Only finance related share which has annouced results recently where share prices hasn't significantly bounced. Look at all the other banking / finance stocks announcing recently. PFG has panned.
On the call now, once again management dodging questions on giving actual numbers they may be held to in the future. Although they have just said that analyst profit forecasts in the market are still realistic.

https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/provident-financial/broker-views/broker-forecast/

38p EPS average target FY23.
Well, we have 12.7p of that half way thru. Cant see them hitting 25p EPS in H2.

I know, and I also know H2 is usually slightly better than H1. But if H1 EPS is 12.7p, then FY I'd aniticpate 25-30p maximum, when analysts where targeting nearly double that.

When I asked PFG a couple of months ago why they do not publish 'internal expectations' they suggested analyst estimates were a good guide as to internal expectations......well, they are way undershooting.

Shares in FTSE 250-listed Provident were down 6.9% at 191.70 pence in London on Wednesday morning, making it the worst performing mid-cap stock in early trade.

REMINDER: MANAGEMENT ARE DELIGHTED!!

BRAVO!!!

*40p+ range on annual then I'd be buying.

That's my point. I was expecting EPS to be in the 20p+ range, not the 12p range. If it was then I'd be buying. As it stands, if 25p annual EPS is more realistic then on 8x it gives you £2. If EPS was more in the 20p+ range it would support a company valuation closer to £1bn. I will continue to hold my loss in the hope the management prove me wrong. Unfortunately I'm quickly losing faith.

I will be joining the results call in 15 mins. I'd advise any other shareholders on here who are getting fed up to go to the PFG shareholder section of their website and sign up now. It takes 30 seconds to do so and call starts at 10am.

Hi Barrie

Yes, I've got a large holding myself at far higher average than current price. I was hoping these results would support a £4+ share price on a 8-10 multiple but these results put it more at £3. Still significantly undervalued but I'm mostly disappointed by management using their usual smoke and mirrors in the accounts. By this I mean: 1) referring to 'in line with internal expectations' but they never state what these expectations are in advance. As far as I can see, the only reason you don't disclose your internal expectations at the start of the year is because you know more than likely you won't achieve them, so can always use the excuse of 'in line'. In line with what?!?! It's infuriating. and 2) as bigpunt alludes to, lots of shuffling around of costs from individual business streams to central, then not disclosing the comparable to H1 21 - so you don't really know if individual biz streams profitability is better or worse than H1 21. Likewise applies to treatment of provisions. There is also a note about debt sales in car finance that doesn’t make much sense to me – its clearly in there as an audit disclosure requirement but done in a way that no investor will know what its referring to without asking the company. I’d also like some colour on customer numbers. Yes they’ve added >100,000 new ones, but impact is net flat. So if the 100,000 they’ve lost are legacy / higher risk clients, then this isn’t a bad thing. And at some point those older customers will be off the book fully and you’d expect net customer numbers to then increases steadily. But as they don’t disclose this, I don’t have a clue if this is a good result or a bad result!! I’ve previously shared the BOE consumer lending figures which samples the sector and I’d have expected a 10% growth from PFG based on this alone, so my gut feeling is they are falling behind competition.

I'm very annoyed as it’s an ongoing theme and points to an ongoing lack of transparency. That said, the accounts are audited so figures should be reliable, despite not knowing what their internal targets are and how these compare to prior reports following the changes to reporting policy.

On the plus side, if the PRA agree the proposal to fund the group with Vanquis deposits, this would have a materially positive impact on funding and NIM, I suspect. Also, the capital holdings and the continued move away from high-risk lending is a plus. Similarly, the reinstatement of dividends is helpful (even if below what I was hoping for) and current inflationary environment I don’t see as a risk to their current portfolio (and helpful they disclose their modelling assumptions on this, it gives comfort). Helpful also FCA investigation is closed and no further fines.

I’m disappointed, but could have been worse. Hopefully we see some broker notes at >£4 target. PFG – the only company to publish results that ‘delight’ management which can still see he share price tank from already historic lows. Bra

Sorry guys but I'm very disappointed with these results. Management noting they are 'delighted' highlights even more how ignorant they are.

'in line with management expectations'. Well, unfortunately a 15p adjusted EPS is running 25% below analyst expectations for the full year. PBT for £54m running 20% below full year target.

Once again, in a booming and expanding market they've failed to increase the customer base in any notable way.

I think they are a disgrace and that's why share price has tanked.

Was anticipating c. 7p dividend to make >15p a realistic propsect come full year.

Seriously think some large shareholders need to step in and request a change. I can't keep doing this year after year and hoping for better.

Disappointing to see the MM massively pushing the price down meaning the purchases under the share buyback programme are t more than a 50% discount to where this was trading at a few months ago.

In some ways its a big positive as the company is acting fast to repurchase shares they see as significantly undervalued (so a clear statement from the insiders they think shares are mispriced) but equally disappointing that MMs have surpressed the price when compared to others in the second where prices are up 20% or so in past month.

When a share buyback is announced a share price usually heads north. So why this has done to opposite puts some serious questions to Peel Hunt and their MM colleagues as to how they've managed to avoid this happening in what is a limited traded share.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescommunicationscouncil/2022/07/19/three-ways-to-reach-new-users-in-the-app-ocalypse/?sh=1df456882d7c

Hopefully see positive results in the coming week too.

Pfg tends to track upwards towards the results announcement.
What happens then is anyones guess.
But 27 July is important.

I also noticed PFG have done their classic balls up on making their results announcement date align with a significant macro event that will most likely drag the market down and mean their results get missed (by this I mean Fed likely to hike rates by 1% on same day). They've done this previously.

You'd think if they had half a brain they'd look at thr calendar and either announce a few days before or after these type of events so allows some for share price to correct before or after a major market move.

They never learn.

Agree - and this whole time being given share rewards as part of the comp.

In fairness, this share in any normal market is an 8-15 PE depending on sentiment. We are at 3.5x,sl so even in a worst case this should be £4+ (which agrees to all the established Broker guidance - Barclays, Shore Cap etc), but its tarred as a piece of turd.

Everyday 250 falls 1% this falls 5% (like today). Any time ftse 250 bounces, this stays flat.

There aren't even any signicnat noted shorts on the stock (although perhaps lots of <5% positions not declared) so even if results are bumper we don't get the added benefit of a short squeeze.

I want / need / price this as £4+ minimum but struggle to see how that 125% increase is achieved in a 6-12 month period.

Surely it would be a takeover target but sadly the entire market is acting with pure paranoia at the moment. I'd buy a near prime loan book and growing business for 75p in the £1 any day (which is where current share price values the assets)

Agree if we don't see a change soon then LeMay needs to step aside.

I'll hold. Would buy more if I could.

Let's wait and hope for sense.

Pooks - I think very few companies will be publishing results with happiness in current climate, and personal feelings of employees on the ground often do not mirror the broader financial case of the business or the market perception.

Per the latest BoE date published on 1 July :

"Individuals borrowed an additional £0.8 billion in consumer credit in May, on net, following £1.4 billion of borrowing in April (Chart 2). This is slightly below the 12-month pre-pandemic average up to February 2020 of £1.0 billion. The additional consumer credit borrowing in May was split between £0.4 billion on credit cards, and £0.4 billion through other forms of consumer credit (such as car dealership finance and personal loans).

The annual growth rate for all consumer credit was unchanged at 5.7% in May; the highest rate since February 2020 (5.8%). The annual growth rate of credit card borrowing was 11.2%, and the annual growth rate of other forms of consumer credit was 3.5%, the highest rate since March 2020 (5.6%)."

Based on this hard data alone, I would be extremely disappointed if PFG have failed to enhance their earnings during the previous quarter. Plus, given their move away from sub-prime, their current borrowers will have more resilience than the sub-prime clients would have done 3 or 4 years ago.

If they can declare a respectable interim dividend and give assurance on the book quality then surely this needs to stop trading below its break-up value and current 3.5x PE. The current valuation is an embarrassment to management.