Member Info for Theborn

About the Role

Recognising PFG’s ambition, this is an opportunity to be at the forefront of developing and delivering the M&A strategy for PFG, identifying opportunities to accelerate the growth of PFG. This role is a great blend of strategy and execution, facilitating and delivering M&A transactions from ideation right the way through to successful implementation and value creation.

Hybrid working is available in this role. We ask that you attend the office 1-2 days per week.

This role could be based in either Bradford or London.

Key Responsibilities
Provide specialist support in the development and maintenance of the M&A landscape enabling potential opportunities for inorganic growth to be identified, prioritised and developed into an M&A deals pipeline reported and progressed with the PFG Group CEO, CFO and Chief Transformation & Strategy Officer.
Support the assessment of potential opportunities including the leading the indicative valuation of M&A targets, identification of potential commercial and cost synergies as well as evaluation of potential opportunities against pre-agreed strategic assessment criteria.
Provide specialist support for any M&A opportunities to be progressed including leading the co-ordination of the due diligence process, advisor selection, engagement and management, day to day planning and delivery of target management engagement.
Provide support in the development and lead co-ordination of engagement with sell-side management, ensuring progress of PFG evaluation of opportunities and due diligence achieves sell-side process requirements and commitments.
Lead the production of due-diligence materials and reports to support clear, timely and effective decision making in line with PFG governance requirements.
Support the development of the strategic rationale and business case for the acquisition and how it fits with the current PFG product set and enables strategic acceleration.
Lead the identification and development of synergies including future operating model options and cost baselining.
Develop offer materials from initial approach/expressions of interest through to non-binding and binding offer letters and subsequent purchase agreements.
Provide integration planning support for acquisitions successfully secured.

Searching for any crumb of inspiration at the end of another hideous week in the life of a PFG Investor I found the following:

https://uk.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=b5cdf5fb68069e08&from=serp

The opportunities they keep referring to might well be acquiring other lenders who are less well funded than themselves.

We live in hope.

Comments are still relevant aren't they.

Although that wasn't a true takeover bid, it was a coup d'etat structured by Woodford to try to save two of his plummeting investments. Despite comments on current management, CEO of NSF is the last person on the planet I'd want running a business (which has shown by the fact they've essentially gone bust in the time since PFG defended against that takeover).

Woodford was forced to sell out of this at c.£5 per share. In a similar resurrection to BoJo, it might even be him who comes along again with his new fund and sees value in this piece of d0gshyt as it plunges towards £1.

Petr_ I would say takeover still needs the support of the existing shareholders (mainly IIs) to agree on a price. Reason now is a good time for a takeover is £3 would have felt cheap 3 months ago, but if someone offered £3 a share now its 110% increase on current value meaning IIs might accept.

Northern Rock money was mainly secured on real estate - they just lent it our at 110% LTV on already inflated values.

My point on Net Assets is this:

If everything in the business was wound down today at carrying value there would be >£600m to distribute to shareholders. This £600m ALREADY includes provisioning (read the PFG interims they have a breakdown of assumed stress modelling which is relatively robust - unemployment levels, default levels etc). The share price is valuing business at fast approaching £300m. So half the already-provisioned break-up value.

If you have the opportunity to buy £1 coins for 50p it usually makes sense, provided you think that even in a worst case those £1 coins are worth more than 70p.

MLM makes the point regularly (and is proved out in past recessions), PFG customers are better at copping with economic stress. They don't have mortgages, many will have income support (With a govt that aims to support low earners / unemployed going forward) - they usually make ends meet.

Finally, some of PFG's book is secured - car finance (that said I'd be less confident 2nd hand car values in the months ahead, but they're still collateralised).

There is a point where any business is trading at such a discount a PE firm can't refuse it. PFG's banking license and therefore ability to raise retail funding deposits alone has significant value.

As useless as management are proving themselves to be (particularly in communications skills), the discount on this share price has become insane.

As a holder when the previous synthetic takeover fiasco plays out then you have very little control.

I'm similar to you that I'm in closer the £3 and still of the view with a semi competent management team and governmental circus settling down these are worth £5+.

A takeover bid at £2 would be £500m and still less than Net assets (and remember the net assets includes!!! provisions - so is already favoring in impairments). If someone offered £2.50 and walked up to £3.00 I'd live with that for my sanity now.

It's perfect company to privatise, so take it out the constant negative attention of the market and analysts, improve the management structure, then re-list it on FTSE in 3 or 4 years when world has settled a bit.... Could easily be worth £10 per share then which is tidy return for PE purchasing business at £3.

Id take any bit of positive excitement now.

I'm also determined to be at results and next AGM in person to raise these points.

Last time the share price was this low was spring 1993. 30 years ago.
Management still delighted and pleased by this.
Must be some of the Institutional Investors pushing for a shake up as the way the current team appear to be proudly overseeing this shytshow is contemptuous towards shareholders who are watching their investment disappear and line the pockets of management.
PUBLISH YOUR MANAGMENT TARGETS EACH YEAR.
TELL US SPECIFIC FIGURES IN UPDATES.
REJECT YOUR BONUSES IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE AND MARKET PERCEPTION.

Ploughing into the 130s.

Balance Sheet net asset position was >£600m at 30 June 2022. The current share price for the collective company is fast spiralling to £300m.

If this was a football team the Management would have been relieved of their duties well before now. Value destructive does not even begin to sum up their perception.

They are a disgrace.

Company has previously said that management expectations should broadly be in line with analyst thought, but flatly refuse to publish that.

Analyst views for current year are 35-40p EPS. With up to half that as divi. I think realistically 35p EPS and 17p dividend might be realistic. So on this farce of a valuation its 3.5x current PE and over 10% divi yeild. Also trading at 40% discount to net assets.

They've consistently said they already have very prudent provisioning in place. You'd have to think at some point this becomes a serious takeover target for someone.

Not sure who this new brokerage is who've never covered PFG before but instantly came out after TU to note its marked as under perform as they'll suffer losses on book, was almost as if they had it pre written and didn't even read the TU which addressed their risk focus.

Barclays have market target price down from 370p to 310p due to macro conditions.... But... That's still 120% upside on current price.

I stills say management need a shake up. That alone would give SP a shot in the arm. I have zero respect for them as things stand.

Barrie

PRA approval for using deposit funds throughout the group is not business critical at all but a useful nice-to-have that could further decrease PFG's cost of capital.

As PFG has a banking license it can raise deposit funds from retail customers and use those retail deposits to lend out within that same entity (I believe the credit card lending business). PFG are requesting PRA allow them to use those deposit funds across the broader group -i.e. these could then be used to fund the some of the car finance business.

Overall assumption being that the rates they pay to savers depositing funds with PFG is less than the interest they'd pay to raise those funds externally.

As I say, in no way business critical but has potential to increase profit margins. They even refer to it on their Focus for 2022: https://www.providentfinancial.com/who-we-are/strategy/

So to simply omit a progress update on this piece which was mention in the July H1 TU further hardens my view than MLM and the senior management at PFG feel they can treat shareholder with contempt and assume they are idiots and won't ask questions.

See some relatively large off book buys coming in. 200,000 shares just now at 1.58.

Shore Capital, which acts as joint broker to Provident, said: "Contrary to market fears, Provident continues to demonstrate resilience in a challenging economic environment reflecting the significant and ongoing improvement in the quality of the loan book and extent of provisioning already in place."

Broker Peel Hunt said: “This is a reassuring update but the future impact of what happens as cost of living pressures bite deeper will continue to moderate share price upside, in our view.”

I just cannot understand how despite posting a market update which, despite the usualy MLM bingo, is at worst reassuring, annd at best an indication that full year results should be quite attractive despite the weight of the world pressing this share down, that the share price isn't at the worst flat, or at best back over £2. INSTEAD IT IS THE WORST PERFORMER IN THE FKING SECTOR AND BROADER MARKET?!?! WHAT IS WRONG WITH SENTIMENT ON THIS SHARE?!?!

I don't even think it's that Barrie. I think it's my earlier point pre 7am that news today is Hunt considering banking taxes, so whole sector gets hit.

This happened every time PFG have an update. There is some specific macro news story outside of their control which tars either whole UK market or PFG sector and the positive update is missed and just gets smashed with the general market.

If management expectation really is what analysts estimate then we are looking at a share on current price with a 10% dividend yeild and a 30% EPS. Trading on only a 3x PE multiple and at c. 60% of break up net asset value.

As a minimum it needs to be at Net Asset value which would mean a reprice to c. £3 and really should be on a 10x+ multiple meaning price north of £5.

Will hold and continue to lobby for management shakeup.

Once again we have some management bingo. Growth in book is positive although I'd liked to have seen more.

Glaring omission is update on the PRA funding application, to use deposit funds across the group. I'm sure this was promised by now so not even to mention what is a material point to the group's cost of funding isnt acceptable. If process is ongoing that fine, say so. No comment creates a void that negative assumptions will fill.

Still, overall positive. And share is criminally undervalued.

Waiting on RNS but as always, PFG are announcing on a day where they'll get hit by bad news - inflation numbers and report of Hunt raiding banks and energy cos for extra tax.

Almost funny. On top of non transparent management they have down right terrible luck with all their announcement timings.

Let's see what rns says

Again. Ftse 250 up nearly 3%. PFG up only the same. Wait for the 3% ftse 250 fall and corresponding 15% pfg plummet.
Management better have something sensible to say 7am weds.

Said it 100 times. Pfg down on a 4x multiple when market dips.... When market recovers it goes 1x.

Ftse 250 up nearly 4% last 2 days. Pfg up only the same. Should be 16% risk back closer to £2.

Piece. Of. Turd.

See below - I'd be filling boots further is hadn't already ploughed all hard earned cash into PFG throughout this nose dive.

Hindsight 20:20 and all that.

I'll be the first to praise management if they can deliver a positive TU next week and importantly elaborate with the transparency and expectation setting we shareholders deserve. Let's see.

I agree - if I hadn't already caught this knife continually on the way down I'd be in further at current prices. Unfortunately PFG has already gobbled up all my liquidity over the past months and years so no cash to do so now.

All the sellers are just algo trades shorting the general UK market and financial sector. But within that, I want to be clear PFG has been downgraded vs market and the buck for that stops with management. As noted, they're running out of time and better start hitting some solid notes and at the very least treat investors with the transparency and respect they deserve. We wait and hope.

Won't be anything to do with TU, its just getting hit by general algo trading as it always does....then not recovering on the broader market bounces.
Despite commnuication incompetencies of management, unless the TU next week contains a hugely unexpected grenade, this share is stinkingly over-sold. Valuation metrics here are farcical.