Member Info for Theborn

Where are you seeing this Peel Hnunt update?

TheProviVan, its a fair point. Given VANQ funding model is moving towards nearly all retail deposits to funds lending activity, the rate offered for savings will impact massively on their margins. They are currently offering >6% on fixed savings accounts. After today's BOE move, and an expectation that rates might not go beyond 5.5% and fall back next year, they might now be able to raise deposits at closer to 5% which will have a significant positive impact on margins.

I still personally think they should raise even more deposits and buy back 30% of the share cap while its a rock bottom prices. Maybe this will happen once new CEO is granted his share options - I'd be happy if he does this.

Enjoying the rise, but.....still pains me to see every other bank announcing record profits and share buy backs. Yet us VANQ groupies look on longingly. Price rise is expected back towards £2 given that is purely the net value of the company. Surprised no vultures are circling to acquire it. A banking license and £500m of net assets, plus future profts for £350m seems like a bargain.

Shorters probably closing out after today's bounce too.

Peter - profit guidance is £45m for the full year (Adjusted PBT), which is 14p ps- expect divi to remain as per PY at 15.3p. So an overpayment but logic being they have plenty of cash and see FY24 onwards pushing £100m+ again.

So that's c.£60m profit forecast for H2.

Reminder this is currently trading at approaching half of the net asset value, which is unheard of.

This will plumb new lows today. I can see 112p following downgrade from Shore (albeit still quiting £3 fair val today vs £4.60 before, so a big downgrade) . MLM and CFO should really be retrospectively stripped of incentive share awards in circumstances like this.

I did say yesterday it would be nice to see CEO buying shares on his first day in office.

I'd have liked to have seen more commitment than 10k! But its a start.

Estlin and his wife with 100k is more like it.

A positive statement in any event.

These guys are starting with an incredibly low bar so have a great opportunity to make themselves very rich. No reason they can't increase the SP 5-10x over the next few years. Even with the H1 blip I still think current FV should start with a £3, given then net assets alone are almost £2.

£40-45m PBT expected FY23 (so that equates to c.£50-60m H2 profit) - that's according to Shore and Vanq Investor Relations.

It's been confirmed there was a technical issue on the investor call last week meaning all bar one shareholder could ask a question - seems a fitting way to sum up MLM's departure.

I can only hope new CEO learns from the abysmal market comms of the past 5 years and gives some clear guidance - good or bad - as it would be such an easy win to drive some confidence into the share.

Market is at a point where you can't trust any narrative in any RNS as it never aligns to the numbers. As others have rightly pointed out, I can't fathom how MLM could issue the May TU then 6 weeks later deliver those numbers with a narrative of 'its been great and in line with management expectations' - despite quite clearly being way off market / analyst expectations (which VANQ have previously told shareholders also reflects management expectations).

Anyway - back to the first sentence of this post. If FY23 offers £40m+ net profit, which given loan book expansion and reduction in platform investment costs going forward would represent a low, and return to target £100m+ going forward then we should see a significant increase in share value. Particularly if new CEO doesn't treat us shareholders like lemmings.

My understanding is this has no impact on Mano given nearly 100% (c.96%) of their cases are owned, NOT funded.

If I had the cash I'd top up but I don't!

Across Friday and today, there have been c.9m buys vs c.6m sells.

For what is now a small share cap about to fall out the FTSE250, this is a) significant volume and b) a significant 3m buy delta.

I expect VANQ was aggressively shorted on Friday morning but surely this buy demand will have to start squeezing out shorts and driving the price upwards.

Here's a thought - incoming CEO backs himself to acquire a substantial amount of shares at what is effectively an all-time share price low. If £500k purchase (not gift options) popped up on RNS it might go some way to reassuring the market (alongside the confidence to continue the divi).

At 40% discount to asset value it seems a no brainer for a new CEO to do this. Maybe some incoming statement would be worthwhile too. I'd also be amazed if some private equity or other listed co isn't sniffing around at these discounts.

Bigger question why this wasn't disclosed on Friday. Unless it was signed during the day on Friday it should have been disclosed then in line with RNS rules.

Anyway, I don't see this as value accretive. Just a box tick for corporate responsibility and that they now care about their customers. Moving from PFG image. Which is fine, I just hope they didn't pay much for it as can't see how it will either increase revenue or decrease costs.

They've indicated they'd replace with retail deposits. They seem to have hedging in place until 2025 also.

I'm sure he will be looking to change his name at this rate!

Will keep his pocket full of share options which I'm sure one day, under new stewardship, will give him a big payout...

A thought - why aren't the Board taking a leaf out of Natwest book and undertaking some share repurchases. With so currently trading at a 40% discount to breakup value, and given Vanq are sat on an unnecessary (and inefficient) amount of cash, if they mopped up 30-40m shares it could do wonders for confidence and sp performance going forward.

Hi Pooks - they did cover this point on the presentation. The H1-22 comparison had the benefit of covid-19 provisions being released (they didn't specify quantum but its probably mentioned in H1-22 report). H1-23 also had the impact of IFRS9 provisions taken on the new loans (this is a downside of growing loan book you must now take an instant day1 provision on all new loans). So acted as a double-whammy in a comparison sense.

I don't recall Management overly highlighting the big impact the covid-19 provision impact had last year - so were more than happy to take the benefit and pretend it was genuine trading driven.

If Shore are roughly accurate with £45m FY23 profit estimate, then that's c.18p per share. I'd expect as inflation abates and interest rates fall back next year the profit should be >£100m.

This whole fall is driven by poor comms today. Its not anywhere near as bad as market reaction but management have dropped ball with delivery....again.

Https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/vanquis-banking-slumps-on-loss/

Shore expecting to reduce FY23 profit est from £80m to £45m. A chunk but still a profit. Also highlighting the point the book value is 180p.....so we are currently trading at almost 40% discount to this. Shore are also their NOMAD so there should be some relevance in their own estimate.

Like I noted earlier, its frustrating but on a sheer value trade alone, the share price has gone to stupid levels this morning. If management had only just said they were still looking at a FY profit this 35% fall would never have happened.

I've been at this party before - bought it when shares crashed from £30+ to £5; then again at £3 and again at peak-covid £1.40.

Today is a new nadir in terms of share price, £1.20 is an embarrassment. I'd like to think it can't go any lower but based on the above I won't hold my breath anymore.

I do think this is hugely overhyped, the divi yield is strong, PE is ridiculously low at 3x, they've positioned for growth and are well capitalised. It's just a shame management seem incompetent and communicating and always seem to misread the room. The market just doesn't trust them.

GreyMonk - see my post - I had exact same problem.

I think at best an amateurish IT mistake on their part, or at worst, a deliberate IT mistake on their part to avoid any hard questions.

Hxulcolrdoh - totally agree.

I actually think that the Zoom link wasn't working properly. There was no option of a Zoom link, only the webinar with no option of posting a question or raising a hand. There are usually half-a-dozen analysts waiting to ask questions on this company so seems totally bizarre none would ask - particularly in light of a 30%+ share price cratering prior to them taking the stage. So my theory is it was an IT problem which helped avoid them answering any hard questions. There must have been plenty of others like me scrambling around to find the 'raise hand' icon with no joy. Amateurish. Again.

I was also annoyed at the lack of forward guidance for H2. Given they know all the ratios for risk/rates/provisions/current loan book, they'd have no issue even simply stating 'we expect FY23 figures to show positive profit/EBIT contribution'. If they've have come out and said that I don't think market would be trading at 50% of break up value.

I also don't understand why they are still looking to raise so much surplus capital from retail deposits as 5%+ which just sits on balance sheet and costs them money, when they are already well above their regulatory thresholds. If they'd have lowered their excess cash holding the interest saving alone would have resulted in H1-23 being in a profit position - its the loss (regardless how small and explained by accounting treatments) which has made the headline and spooked the market.

I read the report in full (including the IFRS9 impact) at 7am and whilst I was surprised P&L was essentially flat (when considering IFRS9), I was slightly encouraged by loan book growth for the first time in a long time. We all know rates have risen so their margins will have been squeezed. Overall, I thought share price would be broadly flat in 180-190p range. I was gobsmacked when I looked at 830am. Although there have been considerably more buys than sells so at some point shorts will be forced to close out.

Market cap is now c.£300m - div yield 13% and P/E 3-4x.

I also really did not appreciate the emotional farewell CFO gave to MLM in light of the current share price. Was a huge backslapping as us ever-suffering shareholders once again stare into the abyss of a huge black hole in our ISAs and pensions. Poorly judged.

This has to be an acquisition target at this price. Just when you think the price can't go any lower - it blasts below peak-covid panic bottoms.

Rest assured I'm a mega-cynic.
I bought in the evening before the big case update which knocked 20% off. However, I've been loading up this week to offset.
Follow the mechanics of the business in detail for several years and even with my cynical cap on, this is significantly undervalued. Now needs a few positive write ups and another 6 months of delivering and market will see sense.